{"id":69343,"date":"2026-10-07T09:59:17","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T09:59:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/uncategorized\/weak-jobs-strong-gold-is-it-really-that-straightforward\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T09:59:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T09:59:17","slug":"weak-jobs-strong-gold-is-it-really-that-straightforward","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/learn\/weak-jobs-strong-gold-is-it-really-that-straightforward\/","title":{"rendered":"Emplois en berne, or en hausse ? Est-ce vraiment aussi simple ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac602538cfa9.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>Le rapport sur l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain <strong>Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)<\/strong> \u2014 c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les <strong>cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois hors agriculture<\/strong> \u2014 fait partie des publications \u00e9conomiques les plus suivies sur les march\u00e9s mondiaux et peut provoquer de forts mouvements sur l\u2019or. Le lien \u00ab classique \u00bb para\u00eet simple\u00a0: des chiffres de l\u2019emploi meilleurs qu\u2019attendu peuvent faire monter les <strong>rendements des emprunts d\u2019\u00c9tat am\u00e9ricains<\/strong> (les <em>Treasuries<\/em>) et le <strong>dollar<\/strong>, ce qui p\u00e8se souvent sur l\u2019or. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, des chiffres d\u00e9cevants peuvent faire baisser rendements et dollar, ce qui soutient potentiellement le m\u00e9tal. Dans les faits, ce sch\u00e9ma sert surtout de point de d\u00e9part.<\/p>\n\n<p>Pour d\u00e9buter, consulter un <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/a-complete-beginners-guide-to-gold-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">guide complet pour d\u00e9butants sur le trading de l\u2019or<\/a> ou apprendre \u00e0 trader <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/xau-usd-trading-a-beginners-guide-to-gold-vs-us-dollar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">XAU\/USD<\/a> (le <strong>prix de l\u2019or cot\u00e9 en dollars<\/strong>) aide \u00e0 comprendre ces m\u00e9canismes.<\/p>\n\n<p>Le NFP ne dit pas directement \u00ab o\u00f9 doit aller \u00bb l\u2019or. Il modifie surtout les anticipations sur la <strong>politique de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed)<\/strong>, et ce sont ces anticipations qui influencent ensuite les rendements des Treasuries, le dollar et le <strong>co\u00fbt d\u2019opportunit\u00e9<\/strong> de l\u2019or (le fait de d\u00e9tenir un actif qui <strong>ne verse pas d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat<\/strong>). Le rapport de septembre illustre pourquoi il faut regarder le m\u00e9canisme complet plut\u00f4t que le seul chiffre des cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ce que le NFP dit vraiment au march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>On r\u00e9sume souvent le NFP au chiffre principal, alors que les op\u00e9rateurs suivent aussi le <strong>taux de ch\u00f4mage<\/strong>, la <strong>progression des salaires<\/strong>, le <strong>taux de participation<\/strong> (part des personnes qui travaillent ou cherchent activement un emploi) et les <strong>r\u00e9visions<\/strong> des mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. Ces composantes peuvent envoyer des signaux diff\u00e9rents\u00a0: le total d\u2019emplois peut surprendre \u00e0 la hausse pendant que les salaires ralentissent, ou le ch\u00f4mage peut monter alors que l\u2019\u00e9conomie cr\u00e9e encore des postes. Et un bon chiffre peut \u00eatre amoindri si les mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents sont r\u00e9vis\u00e9s en baisse.<\/p>\n\n<p>Le march\u00e9 ne se demande donc pas seulement si l\u2019emploi progresse, mais si le rapport est <strong>plus fort ou plus faible qu\u2019attendu<\/strong> et s\u2019il change les anticipations de la Fed. Comprendre <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/how-to-trade-interest-rate-expectations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">comment trader les anticipations de taux<\/a> est essentiel, surtout en pr\u00e9sence de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/mixed-economic-signals-how-investors-should-respond\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">signaux \u00e9conomiques contradictoires<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US job growth slowed more than expected in September and the nonfarm payrolls count for the prior two months was revised sharply lower, almost taking another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this month off the table <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2lEChNt9wF\">https:\/\/t.co\/2lEChNt9wF<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YB8ljDZbU5\">pic.twitter.com\/YB8ljDZbU5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2106104431762977233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>En septembre, le tableau \u00e9tait assez clair. Les cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois hors agriculture n\u2019ont augment\u00e9 que de <strong>29\u00a0000<\/strong>, contre environ <strong>90\u00a0000<\/strong> attendus. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage est mont\u00e9 de <strong>4,1\u00a0%<\/strong> \u00e0 <strong>4,2\u00a0%<\/strong>. Les <strong>salaires horaires moyens<\/strong> n\u2019ont progress\u00e9 que de <strong>0,1\u00a0%<\/strong> sur un mois, sous le consensus de <strong>0,3\u00a0%<\/strong>. Enfin, la hausse de l\u2019emploi d\u2019ao\u00fbt a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9e de <strong>162\u00a0000<\/strong> \u00e0 <strong>133\u00a0000<\/strong>. L\u2019ensemble d\u00e9crivait un march\u00e9 du travail am\u00e9ricain plus mou.<\/p>\n\n<p>Ce point est crucial\u00a0: c\u2019est l\u2019<strong>\u00e9cart par rapport aux attentes<\/strong> qui compte le plus. Une hausse de 100\u00a0000 emplois peut para\u00eetre forte si le march\u00e9 attendait 50\u00a0000, mais faible si le consensus visait 150\u00a0000. Les march\u00e9s r\u00e9agissent donc surtout \u00e0 la surprise, pas au chiffre isol\u00e9. Les traders qui cherchent \u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/5-steps-to-trade-forex-on-news-releases\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trader le Forex lors des publications<\/a> doivent int\u00e9grer cette logique.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi la hausse des salaires compte<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>Les salaires sont d\u00e9terminants car ils influencent l\u2019\u00e9valuation de l\u2019<strong>inflation<\/strong> par la Fed. Quand les entreprises se disputent la main-d\u2019\u0153uvre, les salaires peuvent acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer, ce qui augmente les co\u00fbts et entretient la pression sur les prix. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un ralentissement des salaires sugg\u00e8re que la tension sur le march\u00e9 du travail diminue.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US added fewer jobs than expected in September and wage growth slowed, signaling some caution among employers amid rising costs: Evening Briefing Americas <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HZSu2UI5HB\">https:\/\/t.co\/HZSu2UI5HB<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2106159831635710021?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>La hausse mensuelle de <strong>0,1\u00a0%<\/strong> des salaires horaires moyens a donc renforc\u00e9 le signal de faiblesse. Avec peu de cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois, davantage de ch\u00f4mage et des r\u00e9visions en baisse, le rapport donnait peu d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments indiquant un renforcement du march\u00e9 du travail.<\/p>\n\n<p>La r\u00e9action initiale a \u00e9t\u00e9 coh\u00e9rente\u00a0: l\u2019or est pass\u00e9 d\u2019environ <strong>4\u00a0186\u00a0$<\/strong> \u00e0 plus de <strong>4\u00a0225\u00a0$<\/strong>, tandis que les rendements reculaient et que le dollar se repliait. Sur le papier, le sc\u00e9nario semblait \u00ab parfait \u00bb\u00a0: emploi faible, rendements en baisse, dollar plus faible, or en hausse.<\/p>\n\n<p>Mais le mouvement n\u2019a pas dur\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment le NFP fait bouger l\u2019or en r\u00e9alit\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>Une lecture plus utile n\u2019est pas \u00ab NFP faible = or en hausse \u00bb, mais plut\u00f4t\u00a0:<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019emploi \u2192 Anticipations sur la Fed \u2192 Rendements des Treasuries et dollar \u2192 Or<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>Un rapport sur l\u2019emploi plus faible peut r\u00e9duire la probabilit\u00e9 de nouvelles hausses de taux, ce qui p\u00e8se sur les rendements des Treasuries, surtout sur les maturit\u00e9s courtes, plus sensibles \u00e0 la politique mon\u00e9taire. Des anticipations de taux moins \u00e9lev\u00e9es affaiblissent aussi souvent le dollar. Ces deux effets soutiennent l\u2019or, car des rendements plus bas r\u00e9duisent le co\u00fbt d\u2019opportunit\u00e9 d\u2019un actif sans int\u00e9r\u00eat.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold edged up after its biggest weekly drop since June, as traders weighed the impact of a slowdown in the US jobs market and higher bond yields on the Federal Reserve\u2019s path for interest rates <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/perHKmcAHc\">https:\/\/t.co\/perHKmcAHc<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2106918548111048978?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>Pour analyser ces liens entre march\u00e9s, les traders \u00e9tudient souvent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/why-does-dxy-rise-in-uncertain-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pourquoi le DXY monte en p\u00e9riode d\u2019incertitude<\/a> (le <strong>DXY<\/strong> est un <strong>indice du dollar<\/strong> face \u00e0 un panier de devises) et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/us-treasury-yields-and-gold-why-traders-watch-real-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">le lien entre rendements des Treasuries et or\u00a0: pourquoi suivre les taux r\u00e9els<\/a> (les <strong>taux r\u00e9els<\/strong> sont des rendements <strong>corrig\u00e9s de l\u2019inflation<\/strong>). Savoir <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/how-to-read-the-10-year-treasury-yield-chart\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lire le graphique du rendement \u00e0 10 ans<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/how-to-analyse-treasury-yield-breakouts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">analyser les cassures de rendement<\/a> (franchissements marqu\u00e9s d\u2019un niveau) aide lors des grands rendez-vous macro\u00e9conomiques.<\/p>\n\n<p>Les <strong>rendements r\u00e9els<\/strong> comptent aussi car ils refl\u00e8tent ce que l\u2019investisseur gagne une fois l\u2019inflation prise en compte. Pour l\u2019or, ils peuvent parfois donner un signal plus parlant que les rendements \u00ab nominaux \u00bb (non corrig\u00e9s), pris seuls.<\/p>\n\n<p>Mais les rendements longs ne d\u00e9pendent pas uniquement de la Fed. Les anticipations d\u2019inflation, les besoins de financement de l\u2019\u00c9tat, l\u2019<strong>offre de Treasuries<\/strong> (le volume d\u2019obligations \u00e9mises), la croissance et la <strong>prime de terme<\/strong> (le suppl\u00e9ment de rendement exig\u00e9 pour pr\u00eater sur une longue dur\u00e9e) jouent aussi. Cette nuance a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9cisive apr\u00e8s le NFP de septembre.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi l\u2019or a invers\u00e9 sa trajectoire apr\u00e8s le NFP de septembre<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>Juste apr\u00e8s la publication, les rendements ont recul\u00e9 car les investisseurs ont r\u00e9duit la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une hausse de taux rapide. Le rendement du Treasury \u00e0 10 ans a d\u2019abord perdu environ <strong>8 points de base<\/strong> (un point de base = 0,01 point de pourcentage), avant de se retourner. En fin de s\u00e9ance, le 10 ans s\u2019\u00e9tait repris, autour de <strong>5,26\u00a0%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n<p>L\u2019or a suivi ce retournement obligataire\u00a0: apr\u00e8s avoir d\u00e9pass\u00e9 <strong>4\u00a0225\u00a0$<\/strong>, il a effac\u00e9 ses gains et est repass\u00e9 sous son niveau d\u2019avant NFP.<\/p>\n\n<p>Le point cl\u00e9 est que le rapport sur l\u2019emploi n\u2019est pas devenu soudainement meilleur. Il est rest\u00e9 faible. Ce qui a chang\u00e9, c\u2019est l\u2019attention du march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold edges lower with focus on Fed minutes, rate path clues <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aM9hZePCP2\">https:\/\/t.co\/aM9hZePCP2<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aM9hZePCP2\">https:\/\/t.co\/aM9hZePCP2<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2107684856901582924?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 7, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>Les investisseurs se sont rapidement recentr\u00e9s sur les forces qui maintenaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 les rendements longs \u00e0 des niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s\u00a0: une inflation au-dessus de la cible de la Fed, des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie hauts, des inqui\u00e9tudes sur les besoins de financement publics et l\u2019abondance d\u2019\u00e9missions de Treasuries, alors que les rendements \u00e9voluaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e8s de sommets de plusieurs d\u00e9cennies.<\/p>\n\n<p>Le NFP a bien modifi\u00e9 la perception de la politique mon\u00e9taire, mais il n\u2019a pas fait dispara\u00eetre ces pressions. C\u2019est pourquoi il faut \u00e9viter de lire une statistique seule. L\u2019or r\u00e9agit \u00e0 la fa\u00e7on dont les march\u00e9s traduisent l\u2019information via les rendements, les devises et les anticipations de taux. Une <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/top-down-analysis-in-trading-a-cfd-traders-guide\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">analyse \u00ab top-down \u00bb<\/a> (partir du macro vers les actifs) ou une <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/how-to-conduct-scenario-analysis-in-cfd-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">analyse de sc\u00e9narios<\/a> (pr\u00e9parer plusieurs issues possibles) peut aider \u00e0 g\u00e9rer ces changements rapides.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le premier mouvement n\u2019est pas toujours le bon<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>Le NFP de septembre n\u2019a pas invalid\u00e9 la relation habituelle entre emploi et or\u00a0: la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9action a suivi le manuel. Emploi plus faible qu\u2019attendu, salaires d\u00e9cevants, ch\u00f4mage en hausse, rendements en baisse, dollar en recul et or en hausse.<\/p>\n\n<p>Le retournement est venu ensuite, quand les rendements se sont redress\u00e9s et que le soutien initial \u00e0 l\u2019or a disparu.<\/p>\n\n<p>C\u2019est une le\u00e7on importante des grandes publications\u00a0: le chiffre phare explique souvent la premi\u00e8re impulsion, mais pas forc\u00e9ment toute la s\u00e9ance. Une fois la volatilit\u00e9 retomb\u00e9e, il faut v\u00e9rifier si les march\u00e9s qui transmettent le signal \u2014 rendements et dollar \u2014 confirment encore le mouvement.<\/p>\n\n<p>Si l\u2019or monte apr\u00e8s un NFP faible pendant que les rendements continuent de baisser et que le dollar reste sous pression, le mouvement est mieux \u00ab valid\u00e9 \u00bb. Si les rendements repartent \u00e0 la hausse ou si le dollar se renforce, le contexte change et l\u2019or peut rendre une partie \u2014 voire la totalit\u00e9 \u2014 de ses gains. Une bonne <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/trade-risk-management-tips\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gestion du risque<\/a> (tailles de position, niveaux de sortie, limites de perte) est essentielle apr\u00e8s une annonce.<\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L\u2019indice CPI sera le prochain test majeur<\/h2>\n\n\n<p>La prochaine pi\u00e8ce ma\u00eetresse, c\u2019est l\u2019inflation. Pour aller plus loin, consultez notre <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/complete-consumer-price-index-guide-2025-smarter-investing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">guide complet de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (CPI)<\/a> (mesure standard de l\u2019inflation) et explorez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/gold-and-inflation-is-gold-really-an-inflation-hedge\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">si l\u2019or prot\u00e8ge vraiment contre l\u2019inflation<\/a> (une <em>couverture<\/em>, c\u2019est un actif cens\u00e9 limiter l\u2019impact d\u2019un risque).<\/p>\n\n<p>Les donn\u00e9es de septembre sugg\u00e8rent que le march\u00e9 du travail perd de l\u2019\u00e9lan, ce qui r\u00e9duit l\u2019urgence d\u2019une nouvelle hausse imm\u00e9diate des taux de la Fed. Mais l\u2019emploi ne suffit pas \u00e0 lui seul\u00a0: l\u2019inflation reste l\u2019autre variable cl\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n<p>D\u2019o\u00f9 l\u2019importance particuli\u00e8re du prochain CPI.<\/p>\n\n<p>Un CPI plus faible qu\u2019attendu renforcerait le message du march\u00e9 du travail. Si emploi et inflation ralentissent ensemble, la Fed a moins de raisons de rester tr\u00e8s restrictive. Si cela fait aussi baisser rendements et dollar, l\u2019or b\u00e9n\u00e9ficierait d\u2019un soutien plus solide.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">High inflation alone isn\u2019t bad for US Treasuries \u2014 instead, it\u2019s a rapid increase in the pace of price growth that does the most damage, according to a study by Man Group <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bAZJIkRWQl\">https:\/\/t.co\/bAZJIkRWQl<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2107513723174658316?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 6, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un CPI plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 qu\u2019attendu pourrait produire l\u2019effet oppos\u00e9. Une inflation persistante rappellerait que la Fed ne peut pas se concentrer uniquement sur un emploi plus faible. M\u00eame si le march\u00e9 du travail ralentit, les taux peuvent rester hauts plus longtemps si l\u2019inflation ne baisse pas.<\/p>\n\n<p>Pour les traders sur l\u2019or, l\u2019enjeu est clair\u00a0: le NFP sugg\u00e8re un refroidissement de l\u2019emploi, mais le CPI dira si la Fed a r\u00e9ellement la marge n\u00e9cessaire pour r\u00e9agir \u00e0 cette faiblesse.<\/p>\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Foire aux questions (FAQ)<\/strong><\/summary>\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Un NFP faible signifie-t-il automatiquement une hausse du prix de l\u2019or\u00a0?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n<p>Non. Un emploi d\u00e9cevant fait souvent baisser les rendements des Treasuries et le dollar, ce qui peut soutenir l\u2019or, mais le NFP ne fixe pas directement le prix. Il agit surtout via les anticipations de politique mon\u00e9taire de la Fed, qui influencent ensuite rendements, dollar et or.<\/p>\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pourquoi l\u2019or a-t-il baiss\u00e9 apr\u00e8s avoir d\u2019abord mont\u00e9 sur le NFP faible de septembre\u00a0?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n<p>Apr\u00e8s la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9action, le march\u00e9 s\u2019est recentr\u00e9 sur des facteurs plus durables\u00a0: inflation encore \u00e9lev\u00e9e, prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie hauts et abondance d\u2019\u00e9missions de Treasuries. Quand le rendement \u00e0 10 ans s\u2019est redress\u00e9, l\u2019\u00e9lan initial de l\u2019or s\u2019est \u00e9teint, entra\u00eenant un retournement.<\/p>\n\n\n<ol start=\"3\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Quels \u00e9l\u00e9ments du NFP faut-il suivre, au-del\u00e0 du chiffre principal\u00a0?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n<p>Le taux de ch\u00f4mage, les salaires horaires moyens, le taux de participation et les r\u00e9visions des mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. Des signaux mixtes \u2014 par exemple des cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois correctes mais des salaires qui ralentissent \u2014 peuvent changer l\u2019interpr\u00e9tation du march\u00e9 sur la trajectoire des taux de la Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n<ol start=\"4\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Pourquoi le CPI est-il d\u00e9terminant pour les traders sur l\u2019or apr\u00e8s le NFP\u00a0?<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n<p>Le NFP mesure l\u2019\u00e9lan de l\u2019emploi, tandis que le CPI donne une lecture plus directe des pressions inflationnistes et de la marge de man\u0153uvre de la Fed. Si l\u2019inflation reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e, la Fed peut maintenir des taux hauts plus longtemps, ce qui soutient les rendements et limite le potentiel de hausse de l\u2019or.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Surprise NFP: l\u2019or ne suit pas le seul chiffre. L\u2019emploi infl\u00e9chit surtout les anticipations Fed, via rendements et dollar. 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