{"id":69242,"date":"2026-10-05T10:04:28","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T10:04:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/uncategorized\/gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T10:04:28","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T10:04:28","slug":"gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/analysis\/gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019or teste les 4\u202f210\u202f$ apr\u00e8s un NFP d\u00e9cevant qui fait reculer les rendements des Treasuries"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-discover-12-2-1024x559.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-69959\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois <strong>hors agriculture<\/strong> aux \u00c9tats-Unis (NFP, indicateur mensuel de l\u2019emploi) n\u2019ont augment\u00e9 que de <strong>29 000 en septembre<\/strong>, bien en dessous des <strong>90 000 attendus<\/strong>, tandis que le chiffre d\u2019ao\u00fbt a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9 \u00e0 la baisse \u00e0 133 000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ces donn\u00e9es d\u2019emploi faibles ont r\u00e9duit la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une nouvelle hausse des taux de la Fed en octobre, ce qui a d\u2019abord soutenu l\u2019or.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019or a d\u2019abord progress\u00e9 vers <strong>4 210 $<\/strong>, mais la hausse n\u2019a pas tenu lorsque les <strong>rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor<\/strong> (taux offerts par la dette publique am\u00e9ricaine) et le dollar se sont redress\u00e9s.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019<strong>indice du dollar<\/strong> (DXY, panier comparant le dollar \u00e0 plusieurs grandes devises) a recul\u00e9 vers <strong>101,9<\/strong>, ce qui a apport\u00e9 un soutien suppl\u00e9mentaire \u00e0 l\u2019or.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les prochaines donn\u00e9es d\u2019<strong>inflation<\/strong> aux \u00c9tats-Unis et les prises de parole de la Fed seront d\u00e9terminantes pour les anticipations de la r\u00e9union d\u2019octobre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le dollar s\u2019est affaibli et les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor ont baiss\u00e9 juste apr\u00e8s la publication, les march\u00e9s estimant davantage que la Fed pourrait laisser ses taux inchang\u00e9s en octobre. L\u2019or a d\u2019abord progress\u00e9 vers <strong>4 210 $<\/strong>, mais le mouvement a perdu de la force lorsque les rendements obligataires ont ensuite rebondi depuis leurs plus bas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019or a ouvert autour de <strong>4 141,67 $<\/strong>, a bri\u00e8vement recul\u00e9 vers <strong>4 124,64 $<\/strong>, puis s\u2019est repris \u00e0 <strong>4 149,76 $<\/strong>. Le prix a acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 et est repass\u00e9 au-dessus de 4 140 $ avant de tester la zone 4 150\u20134 155 $. La dynamique s\u2019aplatit pr\u00e8s du sommet. Le XAUUSD (cours de l\u2019or exprim\u00e9 en dollars) \u00e9volue pr\u00e8s de sa <strong>moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes<\/strong> (moyenne des 9 derni\u00e8res bougies, indicateur simple de tendance \u00e0 court terme), apr\u00e8s un bref passage au-dessus, ce qui sugg\u00e8re un soutien des acheteurs sans rupture franche.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le march\u00e9 surveille<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019or a r\u00e9agi rapidement au rapport sur l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain, plus faible que pr\u00e9vu, car les op\u00e9rateurs ont r\u00e9duit leurs anticipations d\u2019un nouveau durcissement de la Fed \u00e0 court terme. En septembre, les cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois hors agriculture n\u2019ont augment\u00e9 que de 29 000, contre 90 000 attendus, tandis que le taux de ch\u00f4mage est mont\u00e9 \u00e0 4,2 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold Rises as Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Data Tempers Rate-Hike Bets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF\">https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2106925391101219173?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le rapport de septembre a chang\u00e9 les anticipations. Au lieu de renforcer l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une nouvelle hausse des taux, il a accru la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une <strong>pause<\/strong> de la Fed en octobre (pas de hausse). Lundi, les prix de march\u00e9 donnaient une probabilit\u00e9 de hausse en octobre de seulement <strong>18 %<\/strong>, m\u00eame si l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une hausse plus tard dans l\u2019ann\u00e9e restait plus pr\u00e9sente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des anticipations de taux plus bas peuvent faire reculer les rendements du Tr\u00e9sor et r\u00e9duire le <strong>co\u00fbt d\u2019opportunit\u00e9<\/strong> (ce \u00e0 quoi on renonce) de d\u00e9tenir des m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux, qui ne versent pas d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat. Un dollar plus faible peut aussi soutenir l\u2019or. Mais le retournement de vendredi a rappel\u00e9 que ce lien n\u2019est pas automatique : les rendements se sont repris apr\u00e8s la baisse initiale li\u00e9e au NFP, et les inqui\u00e9tudes persistantes sur l\u2019inflation limitent la baisse des anticipations de resserrement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/GOLD\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">GOLD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:GOLD\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Zone<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pourquoi c\u2019est important<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance majeure<\/td><td>4 210 $<\/td><td>Zone du rebond apr\u00e8s le NFP et test r\u00e9cent \u00e0 la hausse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance psychologique<\/td><td>4 200 $<\/td><td>Niveau rond tr\u00e8s suivi<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance de court terme<\/td><td>4 160\u20134 165 $<\/td><td>Zone du plus haut intraday actuel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pivot<\/td><td>4 150 $<\/td><td>Zone de prix actuelle, rep\u00e8re directionnel \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support<\/td><td>4 140 $<\/td><td>Zone de stabilisation intraday et de cassure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support cl\u00e9<\/td><td>4 125\u20134 130 $<\/td><td>Zone du plus bas intraday du jour<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support plus bas<\/td><td>4 100 $<\/td><td>Niveau psychologique majeur \u00e0 la baisse<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le niveau central se situe autour de <strong>4 150 $<\/strong>. Se maintenir au-dessus pourrait pr\u00e9server le mouvement vers 4 160\u20134 165 $. Une cassure nette de cette zone remettrait 4 200 $ au centre de l\u2019attention, puis le pic de vendredi \u00e0 4 210 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sous 4 150 $, le march\u00e9 pourrait viser 4 140 $, puis la zone <strong>4 125\u20134 130 $<\/strong>. Une rupture durable sous cette zone fragiliserait le rebond et exposerait le niveau psychologique des 4 100 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac34ffe05ae1.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Confirmation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>Tenir au-dessus de 4 150 $ et franchir 4 165 $<\/td><td>Dynamique en am\u00e9lioration et rendements du Tr\u00e9sor en repli<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sortie par le haut<\/td><td>Mouvement durable au-dessus de 4 200 $<\/td><td>Le prix se maintient au-dessus du niveau psychologique, ouvrant la voie \u00e0 un retest de 4 210 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Repli<\/td><td>Retour vers 4 140\u20134 150 $<\/td><td>Les acheteurs d\u00e9fendent le support et le prix repasse au-dessus de la moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>Passage sous 4 125 $<\/td><td>Rendements en hausse, dollar plus ferme, ou anticipations de Fed plus restrictive (politique plus \u00ab dure \u00bb)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier plus marqu\u00e9<\/td><td>Mouvement durable sous 4 100 $<\/td><td>D\u00e9gradation de la structure de court terme<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans un sc\u00e9nario haussier, l\u2019or pourrait prolonger son rebond si les acheteurs gardent la main au-dessus de <strong>4 150 $<\/strong> et si le prix franchit <strong>4 160\u20134 165 $<\/strong>. Un d\u00e9passement durable de <strong>4 200 $<\/strong> renforcerait la dynamique et remettrait en ligne de mire le plus haut r\u00e9cent \u00e0 <strong>4 210 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans un sc\u00e9nario baissier, l\u2019or pourrait \u00eatre de nouveau sous pression s\u2019il ne parvient pas \u00e0 conserver <strong>4 150 $<\/strong> et repasse sous <strong>4 140 $<\/strong>. Une cassure sous <strong>4 125\u20134 130 $<\/strong> affaiblirait le rebond de court terme et pourrait ouvrir la voie au niveau psychologique des <strong>4 100 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision sur l\u2019or : et maintenant ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le rapport NFP plus faible r\u00e9duit, \u00e0 court terme, le risque d\u2019une nouvelle hausse de taux de la Fed en octobre, ce qui soutient l\u2019or. Cependant, le retournement de vendredi montre que l\u2019or reste sensible \u00e0 un rebond des rendements du Tr\u00e9sor ou \u00e0 un raffermissement du dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019attention se tourne donc vers les prochaines donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et les interventions des responsables de la Fed. Une inflation plus faible, combin\u00e9e \u00e0 un emploi moins dynamique, renforcerait l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une pause en octobre. Une inflation qui reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e, surtout avec des commentaires plus restrictifs de la Fed (favorables \u00e0 des taux plus hauts), pourrait maintenir les rendements \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9 et rendre plus difficile un mouvement durable au-dessus de <strong>4 200 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader l\u2019or avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les <strong>CFD<\/strong> (contrats sur la diff\u00e9rence : produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s permettant de sp\u00e9culer sur un prix sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019actif) sur XAUUSD donnent une exposition aux variations de l\u2019or sans poss\u00e9der d\u2019or physique. L\u2019or est souvent suivi avec le dollar, les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, les anticipations d\u2019inflation et le contexte g\u00e9opolitique. Les op\u00e9rateurs peuvent aussi surveiller l\u2019US Dollar Index (USDX). Comme l\u2019or est cot\u00e9 en dollars, les variations du dollar influencent souvent la demande et le prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Suivez l\u2019\u00e9volution du XAUUSD avec l\u2019USDX, le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">march\u00e9 des changes (forex)<\/a>, les <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">indices<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">d\u2019autres march\u00e9s mondiaux de CFD<\/a> sur VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u00e9couvrez l\u2019ensemble des produits sur l\u2019or chez VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pourquoi l\u2019or a-t-il mont\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le rapport NFP ?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019or a d\u2019abord progress\u00e9 car les cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois de septembre ont \u00e9t\u00e9 nettement inf\u00e9rieures aux attentes. Ces chiffres ont r\u00e9duit la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une hausse des taux de la Fed en octobre, ce qui a d\u2019abord pes\u00e9 sur les rendements du Tr\u00e9sor et sur le dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00c0 quel point le rapport NFP de septembre a-t-il \u00e9t\u00e9 faible ?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois hors agriculture ont augment\u00e9 de <strong>29 000<\/strong>, contre environ <strong>90 000<\/strong> attendus. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage est aussi mont\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>4,2 %<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pourquoi l\u2019or a-t-il recul\u00e9 apr\u00e8s avoir atteint 4 210 $ ?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9action initiale apr\u00e8s le NFP s\u2019est essouffl\u00e9e lorsque les rendements du Tr\u00e9sor ont rebondi et que le march\u00e9 a continu\u00e9 d\u2019int\u00e9grer la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un resserrement mon\u00e9taire plus tard dans l\u2019ann\u00e9e. L\u2019or a ensuite effac\u00e9 une partie de ses gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait faire bouger l\u2019or ensuite ?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaines, les rendements du Tr\u00e9sor, le dollar et les commentaires des responsables de la Fed devraient influencer les anticipations de taux pour octobre. Le march\u00e9 privil\u00e9gie une pause, mais l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019un nouveau tour de vis plus tard dans l\u2019ann\u00e9e reste pr\u00e9sente.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Surprise sur l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain : les NFP de septembre (29.000) ravivent le pari d\u2019une pause de la Fed. L\u2019or bondit vers 4.210 $, puis cale avec le rebond des rendements et du dollar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69241,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Surprise sur l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain : les NFP de septembre (29.000) ravivent le pari d\u2019une pause de la Fed. 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