{"id":69225,"date":"2026-10-02T09:58:21","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T09:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/uncategorized\/oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T09:58:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T09:58:21","slug":"oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/analysis\/oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated\/","title":{"rendered":"Le p\u00e9trole s\u2019envole, les risques sur l\u2019approvisionnement au Moyen-Orient maintenant les prix \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/oil-1.webp\" alt=\"Le p\u00e9trole s\u2019envole au fil des d\u00e9veloppements au Moyen-Orient.\" class=\"wp-image-69760\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>UKOUSD (Brent cot\u00e9 en dollars am\u00e9ricains) \u00e9volue autour de <strong>107,51 $<\/strong>, apr\u00e8s un rebond depuis un plus bas de s\u00e9ance proche de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les cours du p\u00e9trole restent soutenus par la crainte qu\u2019une aggravation au Moyen-Orient perturbe la production et le transport maritime de la r\u00e9gion.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Des informations selon lesquelles les \u00c9tats-Unis envisageraient de d\u00e9ployer des moyens militaires suppl\u00e9mentaires ont renforc\u00e9 la <strong>prime de risque g\u00e9opolitique<\/strong> (surco\u00fbt int\u00e9gr\u00e9 dans les prix pour couvrir l\u2019incertitude li\u00e9e au conflit) sur le p\u00e9trole.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La remise en service de l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc Est-Ouest saoudien et la reprise des chargements de tankers \u00e0 Yanbu ont restaur\u00e9 une partie des capacit\u00e9s d\u2019exportation, ce qui limite la hausse.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La suspension \u00e9voqu\u00e9e des exportations chinoises de carburants en dehors de Hong Kong et Macao en octobre pourrait tendre le march\u00e9 des produits raffin\u00e9s (diesel, k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne, essence).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UKOUSD \u00e9volue autour de <strong>107,51 $<\/strong>, en baisse d\u2019environ <strong>0,13 %<\/strong>. Le p\u00e9trole a d\u2019abord recul\u00e9 d\u2019environ <strong>107,75 $<\/strong> vers un point bas proche de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>, tandis que la <strong>moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes<\/strong> (indicateur qui lisse les prix sur les 9 derni\u00e8res unit\u00e9s de temps pour visualiser la tendance) s\u2019orientait \u00e0 la baisse sous l\u2019effet des ventes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La dynamique s\u2019est ensuite am\u00e9lior\u00e9e. Les prix ont rebondi nettement, repassant au-dessus de <strong>107,40 $<\/strong> et s\u2019approchant bri\u00e8vement de <strong>107,50 $<\/strong>. Depuis, UKOUSD oscille entre <strong>107,40 $ et 107,50 $<\/strong>, et la moyenne mobile recommence \u00e0 se redresser. L\u2019action des prix autour de <strong>107,50 $<\/strong> sugg\u00e8re un retour des acheteurs \u00e0 tr\u00e8s court terme, sans rupture nette pour l\u2019instant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ce que les traders surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Au rythme des d\u00e9veloppements au Moyen-Orient, les cours du p\u00e9trole restent instables. Selon plusieurs informations, Washington envisagerait des d\u00e9ploiements militaires suppl\u00e9mentaires, alimentant la crainte d\u2019une escalade impliquant l\u2019Iran pouvant viser des infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques ou des routes maritimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz reste central : toute perturbation du passage des p\u00e9troliers dans ce couloir maritime pourrait r\u00e9duire l\u2019offre physique (barils r\u00e9ellement disponibles), ce qui pousserait les prix \u00e0 la hausse. En face, certains \u00e9l\u00e9ments freinent le mouvement. L\u2019Arabie saoudite a relanc\u00e9 l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc Est-Ouest et repris les chargements \u00e0 Yanbu, ce qui permet d\u2019exporter en contournant une partie des risques autour du Golfe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Saudi Arabia has started exporting oil using a key cross-country pipeline after the link was repaired following drone strikes earlier this month, sources say <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dMB3rPf9dK\">https:\/\/t.co\/dMB3rPf9dK<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2104536628710535272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 28, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Autre point cl\u00e9 : les produits raffin\u00e9s. Des informations indiquent que des raffineurs chinois auraient suspendu, pour octobre, des exportations de carburants en dehors de Hong Kong et Macao. Cela pourrait r\u00e9duire la disponibilit\u00e9 mondiale de diesel, de k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne (carburant d\u2019aviation) et d\u2019essence, alors que les exportations russes sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 limit\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Oil?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Oil<\/a> tops $102 as <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/China?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#China<\/a> halts fuel exports and US moves troops to Middle East<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aorouAJu2e\">https:\/\/t.co\/aorouAJu2e<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBCTV18Live\/status\/2105845200774103266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les op\u00e9rateurs \u00e9valuent si les craintes sur l\u2019offre l\u2019emporteront sur la reprise des flux d\u2019exportation r\u00e9gionaux et sur les interrogations plus larges concernant la demande de p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --><div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/UKOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Graphique UKOIL<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;par TradingView<\/span><\/div>  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>  {  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,  \"calendar\": false,  \"details\": false,  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,  \"hide_legend\": false,  \"hide_volume\": false,  \"hotlist\": false,  \"interval\": \"D\",  \"locale\": \"en\",  \"save_image\": true,  \"style\": \"1\",  \"symbol\": \"TVC:UKOIL\",  \"theme\": \"dark\",  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",  \"watchlist\": [],  \"withdateranges\": false,  \"compareSymbols\": [],  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",  \"studies\": [],  \"width\": 900,  \"height\": 500}  <\/script><\/div><!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Importance<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\u00c0 surveiller<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>108,00 $ &#8211; 108,02 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance majeure<\/td><td>Plus haut de s\u00e9ance et seuil psychologique (niveau \u00ab rond \u00bb souvent tr\u00e8s observ\u00e9)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,60 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance<\/td><td>Un franchissement pourrait renforcer la dynamique haussi\u00e8re \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,50 $<\/td><td>Pivot imm\u00e9diat<\/td><td>Zone de prix actuelle, affrontement acheteurs\/vendeurs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,40 $<\/td><td>Premier support<\/td><td>Zone r\u00e9cente de stabilisation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,25 $<\/td><td>Support cl\u00e9<\/td><td>Plus bas de s\u00e9ance et zone de retournement intrajournalier<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,20 $<\/td><td>Support inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><td>Une cassure pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 une baisse plus marqu\u00e9e<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La zone<strong> 108,00 $ &#8211; 108,02 $<\/strong> correspond au plus haut de s\u00e9ance et \u00e0 une r\u00e9sistance psychologique, tandis qu\u2019un passage au-dessus de <strong>107,60 $<\/strong> pourrait renforcer la dynamique \u00e0 court terme. Le prix gravite autour de <strong>107,50 $<\/strong>, pivot imm\u00e9diat o\u00f9 acheteurs et vendeurs se disputent la main.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, le premier support se situe \u00e0 <strong>107,40 $<\/strong>, puis \u00e0 <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>, le point bas de s\u00e9ance. Une cassure nette sous ce niveau, puis sous <strong>107,20 $<\/strong>, augmenterait le risque d\u2019une poursuite du repli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abf4e2782c87.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Mouvement potentiel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>UKOUSD se maintient au-dessus de 107,40 $ et franchit 107,60 $<\/td><td>Pourrait ouvrir la voie vers 107,80 $ puis 108,00 $ &#8211; 108,02 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>UKOUSD passe sous 107,40 $<\/td><td>Pourrait remettre 107,25 $ au centre de l\u2019attention<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier renforc\u00e9<\/td><td>Cassure franche sous 107,25 $<\/td><td>Pourrait exposer 107,20 $ et des niveaux plus bas<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sc\u00e9nario haussier : le march\u00e9 doit tenir au-dessus de <strong>107,40 $<\/strong> puis franchir <strong>107,60 $<\/strong>. Les acheteurs pourraient alors viser <strong>107,80 $<\/strong> puis la zone <strong>108,00 $ &#8211; 108,02 $<\/strong>, o\u00f9 se situent le plus haut de s\u00e9ance et une r\u00e9sistance psychologique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sc\u00e9nario baissier : un passage sous <strong>107,40 $<\/strong> signalerait que la phase de stabilisation ne tient plus, avec un retour possible de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong> dans le viseur, les vendeurs testant le plus bas de s\u00e9ance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision UKOUSD : et maintenant ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La suite d\u00e9pendra surtout de l\u2019actualit\u00e9 g\u00e9opolitique. Une nouvelle escalade ou une perturbation des flux p\u00e9troliers au Moyen-Orient pourrait rapidement pousser les prix plus haut. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une am\u00e9lioration durable des exportations saoudiennes depuis Yanbu, ou un apaisement des tensions, pourrait limiter la hausse et d\u00e9clencher des prises de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices (ventes pour s\u00e9curiser des gains).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les traders surveilleront aussi une confirmation de la suspension des exportations chinoises de carburants en octobre, ce qui soutiendrait les produits raffin\u00e9s et pourrait provoquer de forts mouvements. D\u2019autres facteurs peuvent compter : avanc\u00e9es diplomatiques ou changements de sanctions concernant l\u2019Iran et la Russie, \u00e9volution des co\u00fbts d\u2019assurance des p\u00e9troliers et des frais de transport (fret), ainsi que les grandes annonces \u00e9conomiques. C\u00f4t\u00e9 macro, le dollar et l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque sur les actions peuvent r\u00e9duire la prime g\u00e9opolitique, ce qui rend la zone <strong>107,40 $ \u00e0 107,60 $<\/strong> particuli\u00e8rement sensible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader UKOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UKOUSD reste tr\u00e8s r\u00e9actif quand le risque g\u00e9opolitique, les perturbations maritimes, les craintes sur l\u2019offre et les anticipations de demande \u00e9voluent en m\u00eame temps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, les traders peuvent acc\u00e9der \u00e0 des <strong>CFD<\/strong> (contrats sur diff\u00e9rence : produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s permettant de sp\u00e9culer sur la hausse ou la baisse d\u2019un prix sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019actif) sur UKOUSD, ainsi que sur le WTI, l\u2019or, le forex, les indices, les actions, les ETF et d\u2019autres march\u00e9s mondiaux via une seule plateforme. Cela aide \u00e0 suivre l\u2019environnement macro, des attentes d\u2019inflation au dollar, jusqu\u2019au sentiment de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Utilisez les outils graphiques de VT Markets pour suivre les supports, r\u00e9sistances, moyennes mobiles et les cassures (passage net au-dessus ou au-dessous d\u2019un niveau) \u00e0 mesure que le prochain sc\u00e9nario UKOUSD se met en place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi UKOUSD s\u2019\u00e9change au-dessus de 107 $ ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix sont soutenus par les tensions au Moyen-Orient et le risque de perturbation de l\u2019offre \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et des routes maritimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quel est le niveau de r\u00e9sistance cl\u00e9 pour UKOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe vers <strong>107,60 $<\/strong>. Au-dessus, le march\u00e9 surveille <strong>107,80 $<\/strong> puis le plus haut de s\u00e9ance autour de <strong>108,02 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quel est le niveau de support cl\u00e9 pour UKOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un premier support se situe autour de <strong>107,40 $<\/strong>, puis vers le plus bas de s\u00e9ance proche de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>. Une cassure sous ces niveaux fragiliserait le rebond en cours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">UKOUSD est-il haussier ou baissier ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 tr\u00e8s court terme, le biais est <strong>neutre \u00e0 l\u00e9g\u00e8rement haussier<\/strong> apr\u00e8s le rebond depuis 107,25 $ et le retour au-dessus de la moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes. Un franchissement de 107,60 $ renforcerait le signal haussier, tandis qu\u2019un retour sous 107,25 $ favoriserait un sc\u00e9nario baissier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait faire bouger les prix du p\u00e9trole ensuite ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les d\u00e9veloppements au Moyen-Orient, le passage des p\u00e9troliers par le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, les variations de production et d\u2019exportations, l\u2019\u00e9tat des march\u00e9s des carburants raffin\u00e9s, les attentes de demande mondiale et les donn\u00e9es de stocks resteront d\u00e9terminants.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c0 surveiller : le Brent oscille vers 107,5 $, port\u00e9 par une prime g\u00e9opolitique au Moyen-Orient et des rumeurs de renforts am\u00e9ricains. Le red\u00e9marrage saoudien limite la hausse, la Chine pourrait tendre les raffin\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69224,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u00c0 surveiller : le Brent oscille vers 107,5 $, port\u00e9 par une prime g\u00e9opolitique au Moyen-Orient et des rumeurs de renforts am\u00e9ricains. 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