{"id":69209,"date":"2026-10-01T05:58:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T05:58:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/uncategorized\/dow-jones-dj30-key-levels-to-watch-before-us-non-farm-payrolls\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T05:58:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T05:58:07","slug":"dow-jones-dj30-key-levels-to-watch-before-us-non-farm-payrolls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/analysis\/dow-jones-dj30-key-levels-to-watch-before-us-non-farm-payrolls\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Jones (DJ30) : niveaux cl\u00e9s \u00e0 surveiller avant les chiffres de l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain (NFP)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abde21112e3d.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le DJ30 \u00e9volue autour de <strong>51 076<\/strong>, en hausse d\u2019environ <strong>0,13 %<\/strong> sur la s\u00e9ance affich\u00e9e.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019indice s\u2019est repris apr\u00e8s un point bas intraday de <strong>51 023,45<\/strong> et se traite pr\u00e8s de la borne haute de son range r\u00e9cent (zone d\u2019\u00e9volution).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe vers <strong>51 080\u201351 160<\/strong>, avec un plus haut de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 <strong>51 159,45<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le prochain catalyseur majeur pour le DJ30 est le rapport am\u00e9ricain <strong>NFP<\/strong> (Non-Farm Payrolls, cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois hors secteur agricole) attendu vendredi (consensus : ~90 000 apr\u00e8s 162 000 ; taux de ch\u00f4mage attendu \u00e0 4,1 %).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le DJ30 a amorc\u00e9 un rebond de court terme apr\u00e8s une phase de pression vendeuse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019indice a ouvert vers <strong>51 047,50<\/strong> puis a d\u2019abord \u00e9volu\u00e9 \u00e0 plat entre <strong>51 040<\/strong> et <strong>51 055<\/strong>. La demande s\u2019est ensuite renforc\u00e9e, propulsant l\u2019indice au-dessus de <strong>51 070<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les cours ont ensuite consolid\u00e9 entre <strong>51 065<\/strong> et <strong>51 080<\/strong>, signe que les acheteurs d\u00e9fendent pour l\u2019instant l\u2019essentiel de la progression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les investisseurs surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le DJ30 reste tr\u00e8s suivi : le march\u00e9 arbitre entre une croissance am\u00e9ricaine solide et les perspectives de la <strong>R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed)<\/strong> ainsi que des <strong>rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain<\/strong> (les \u00ab Treasury yields \u00bb, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat implicite des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat). Une croissance vigoureuse peut maintenir ces rendements \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9, ce qui p\u00e8se souvent sur le Dow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les \u00e9conomistes attendent environ <strong>90 000<\/strong> cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois, un net ralentissement apr\u00e8s <strong>162 000<\/strong>, avec un taux de ch\u00f4mage attendu \u00e0 <strong>4,1 %<\/strong>. Mercredi, l\u2019enqu\u00eate <strong>ADP<\/strong> (estimation des emplois dans le secteur priv\u00e9) a fait \u00e9tat de <strong>90 000<\/strong> cr\u00e9ations, contre <strong>68 000<\/strong> attendues, ce qui augmente le risque de surprise haussi\u00e8re. Les probabilit\u00e9s d\u2019une <strong>hausse de taux<\/strong> en octobre ont recul\u00e9 vers <strong>39 %<\/strong> apr\u00e8s un <strong>PCE core<\/strong> (inflation sous-jacente mesur\u00e9e par l\u2019indice des d\u00e9penses de consommation, hors \u00e9l\u00e9ments volatils) plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9 ; un chiffre de NFP solide pourrait faire remonter ces anticipations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/VANTAGE-DJ30\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">DJ30 chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"VANTAGE:DJ30\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signification<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51 160<\/td><td>Plus haut de s\u00e9ance et r\u00e9sistance majeure \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51 080<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51 070<\/td><td>Zone pivot de court terme (niveau charni\u00e8re)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51 050<\/td><td>Premier support intraday<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51 023<\/td><td>Plus bas de s\u00e9ance et support plus solide \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51 000<\/td><td>Support psychologique cl\u00e9 (niveau rond surveill\u00e9 par le march\u00e9)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>50 900<\/td><td>Zone de baisse secondaire<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>50 000<\/td><td>Support psychologique majeur \u00e0 plus long terme<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le DJ30 teste la zone <strong>51 070\u201351 080<\/strong>. Une installation durable au-dessus de cette zone pourrait remettre en ligne de mire le plus haut de s\u00e9ance vers <strong>51 160<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>51 050<\/strong> constitue le premier niveau \u00e0 surveiller. Un passage en dessous pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 <strong>51 023<\/strong>, puis au seuil psychologique des <strong>51 000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abde2126c78e.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveaux possibles \u00e0 surveiller<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>Franchissement durable au-dessus de 51 080<\/td><td>51 160, puis 51 300<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prolongement haussier<\/td><td>La zone 51 000\u201351 050 tient en support<\/td><td>Rebond vers 51 080\u201351 160<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>Rupture sous 51 050<\/td><td>51 023, puis 51 000<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prolongement baissier<\/td><td>Rupture durable sous 51 000<\/td><td>50 900, puis plus bas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier de plus grande ampleur<\/td><td>D\u00e9gradation marqu\u00e9e sous les supports interm\u00e9diaires<\/td><td>50 000<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En sc\u00e9nario haussier, un franchissement durable au-dessus de <strong>51 080<\/strong> renforcerait le rebond intraday et pourrait permettre un nouveau test du plus haut de s\u00e9ance pr\u00e8s de <strong>51 160<\/strong>. En cas de d\u00e9passement, <strong>51 300<\/strong> devient la prochaine zone \u00e0 surveiller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En sc\u00e9nario baissier, il faudrait repasser sous <strong>51 050<\/strong>. Une cassure sous le point bas de s\u00e9ance vers <strong>51 023<\/strong> exposerait <strong>51 000<\/strong>, puis <strong>50 900<\/strong>. Le seuil psychologique des <strong>50 000<\/strong> n\u2019entrerait en jeu qu\u2019en cas de repli nettement plus marqu\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019analyse de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil en investissement ni une recommandation de VT Markets. \u00c0 chacun de faire sa propre analyse et de g\u00e9rer son risque.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision DJ30 : et maintenant ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La prochaine impulsion du DJ30 d\u00e9pend largement des statistiques am\u00e9ricaines, avec un focus sur le rapport <strong>NFP<\/strong> de vendredi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un chiffre nettement sup\u00e9rieur au consensus de 90 000, surtout si les salaires acc\u00e9l\u00e8rent, pourrait faire remonter les rendements obligataires et pousser le DJ30 vers 51 000. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un chiffre sous le consensus, ou une hausse du ch\u00f4mage, pourrait d\u00e9tendre les rendements et soutenir l\u2019indice. En revanche, un rapport tr\u00e8s faible raviverait les craintes sur la croissance, ce qui pourrait limiter le rebond des actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader le DJ30 avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">G\u00e9rez votre exposition avec des plateformes de trading, des conditions de n\u00e9gociation comp\u00e9titives et un effet de levier (m\u00e9canisme permettant d\u2019augmenter une position avec une mise plus faible, mais qui accro\u00eet aussi le risque) adaptable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, il est possible d\u2019acc\u00e9der \u00e0 des <strong>CFD<\/strong> (contrats sur diff\u00e9rence : produit d\u00e9riv\u00e9 qui permet de sp\u00e9culer sur la hausse ou la baisse d\u2019un actif sans le d\u00e9tenir) sur le Dow Jones, ainsi que sur des indices mondiaux, le <strong>forex<\/strong> (march\u00e9 des changes), les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, des actions, des <strong>ETF<\/strong> (fonds indiciels cot\u00e9s) et d\u2019autres march\u00e9s de CFD via une seule plateforme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c0 quel niveau se traite le DJ30 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le graphique montre un DJ30 autour de <strong>51 076<\/strong>, en hausse d\u2019environ <strong>0,13 %<\/strong> sur la s\u00e9ance affich\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le DJ30 peut-il reculer vers 50 000 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui, mais plusieurs supports plus proches se situent au-dessus. Le DJ30 devrait d\u2019abord casser nettement sous <strong>51 000<\/strong> puis sous les supports interm\u00e9diaires avant que <strong>50 000<\/strong> devienne la zone de baisse dominante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le NFP est-il important pour le DJ30 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NFP influence les anticipations sur la politique de la Fed, les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor et les perspectives \u00e9conomiques am\u00e9ricaines. Des emplois solides peuvent maintenir les rendements \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9, tandis que des donn\u00e9es plus faibles peuvent renforcer l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une politique mon\u00e9taire moins restrictive (taux qui baissent ou restent plus bas).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui soutiendrait une nouvelle hausse du DJ30 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un franchissement durable de <strong>51 080\u201351 160<\/strong>, combin\u00e9 \u00e0 des rendements obligataires en repli ou \u00e0 des statistiques am\u00e9ricaines plus faibles, renforcerait le sc\u00e9nario haussier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait faire baisser le DJ30 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un NFP tr\u00e8s solide, une remont\u00e9e des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor ou une cassure durable sous <strong>51 000<\/strong> pourraient accro\u00eetre la pression baissi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Suspense sur le Dow Jones : le DJ30 rebondit vers 51\u202f076 (+0,13 %), proche de la r\u00e9sistance 51\u202f080\u201351\u202f160. Le NFP de vendredi (90k attendus) pourrait trancher, via rendements.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69208,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Suspense sur le Dow Jones : le DJ30 rebondit vers 51 076 (+0,13 %), proche de la r\u00e9sistance 51 080\u201351 160. 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