{"id":19512,"date":"2025-07-21T09:45:51","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T09:45:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr\/uncategorized\/le-rebond-du-yen-de-courte-duree-face-aux-risques-politiques\/"},"modified":"2025-07-21T09:45:51","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T09:45:51","slug":"le-rebond-du-yen-de-courte-duree-face-aux-risques-politiques","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/analysis\/le-rebond-du-yen-de-courte-duree-face-aux-risques-politiques\/","title":{"rendered":"Le rebond du yen de courte dur\u00e9e face aux risques politiques."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/19\/2026\/04\/yen5-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17043\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Principaux Points \u00e0 Retenir<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le yen japonais se renforce bri\u00e8vement apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections, mais MUFG avertit que la hausse pourrait ne pas durer<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La coalition au pouvoir perd la majorit\u00e9 au S\u00e9nat ; le PM Ishiba s&#8217;engage \u00e0 rester<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les incertitudes politiques p\u00e8sent sur les progr\u00e8s commerciaux entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et le Japon<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>Le <strong>yen japonais<\/strong> a connu une l\u00e9g\u00e8re mont\u00e9e apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections de dimanche au <strong>S\u00e9nat<\/strong>, mais les analystes restent sceptiques quant \u00e0 sa durabilit\u00e9. Le <strong>taux USD\/JPY a chut\u00e9 de 0,5 % \u00e0 147,88<\/strong> \u00e0 la cl\u00f4ture de lundi, testant bri\u00e8vement <strong>des plus bas intrajournaliers pr\u00e8s de 147,69<\/strong> \u00e0 cause des nouvelles politiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Morning Bid: Could have been worse, is enough for the yen <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KHozKipc6x\">https:\/\/t.co\/KHozKipc6x<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KHozKipc6x\">https:\/\/t.co\/KHozKipc6x<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1947196129247912210?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 21, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>En th\u00e9orie, le march\u00e9 a salu\u00e9 le fait que le Premier ministre <strong>Shigeru Ishiba<\/strong> reste au pouvoir malgr\u00e9 la coalition au pouvoir <strong>qui perd sa majorit\u00e9<\/strong>\u2014mais le ton est loin d&#8217;\u00eatre festif.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">La BoJ Reste Prudente Face \u00e0 l&#8217;Incertitude<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>La <strong>Banque du Japon<\/strong>, d\u00e9j\u00e0 prudente concernant une augmentation des taux, a maintenant encore plus de raisons de rester prudente. Un risque politique accru tend \u00e0 favoriser la stabilit\u00e9 des politiques plut\u00f4t que l&#8217;exp\u00e9rimentation, et avec l&#8217;<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9lpxQUbqR6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">spectre des tensions commerciales<\/a> imminent, la BoJ pourrait privil\u00e9gier la continuit\u00e9 plut\u00f4t que le resserrement des taux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cela ajoute une dimension de faiblesse \u00e0 l&#8217;avenir du yen, surtout alors que le <strong>dollar est soutenu fondamentalement<\/strong> par la politique plut\u00f4t restrictive de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Analyse Technique<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Le taux USDJPY reste sous forte pression \u00e0 la vente, passant en dessous des 148,00 avec une s\u00e9rie de sommets et de creux de plus en plus bas. L&#8217;histogramme MACD est fermement n\u00e9gatif et s&#8217;\u00e9largit, tandis que les lignes de signal et MACD divergent\u2014indiquant un \u00e9lan baissier soutenu. Le prix reste \u00e9galement clairement en dessous de la moyenne mobile \u00e0 30 jours, renfor\u00e7ant la structure baissi\u00e8re intrajournali\u00e8re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/19\/2026\/04\/image-20.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-26854\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Image : USDJPY lutte en dessous de 148,00 alors que l&#8217;\u00e9lan s&#8217;affaiblit. Une rupture en dessous de 147,69 ouvre la voie \u00e0 une baisse plus profonde, comme on le voit sur l&#8217;<a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">application VT Markets<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ce mouvement r\u00e9cent survient alors que les traders deviennent de plus en plus prudents suite \u00e0 des commentaires mitig\u00e9s des d\u00e9cideurs de la BoJ la semaine derni\u00e8re, o\u00f9 le gouverneur Ueda a laiss\u00e9 entendre que &#8220;la sortie de la politique ultra-accommodante restera progressive.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ramps up his message that he is going to wait for additional data to make a judgment on the next monetary policy decision <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wIT299jHR8\">https:\/\/t.co\/wIT299jHR8<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1940073121211355541?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>En attendant, un dollar am\u00e9ricain plus fort n&#8217;a pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 maintenir l&#8217;USDJPY \u00e0 flot, sugg\u00e9rant une demande potentielle de refuge pour le yen. Si 147,69 est franchi, les regards se tournent vers le prochain niveau psychologique \u00e0 147,50.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Des Discussions Commerciales Pourraient Faire La Diff\u00e9rence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Toutes les attentions se tournent vers l&#8217;\u00e9volution des <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iIZktsT7H0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">discussions commerciales entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et le Japon<\/a>, notamment \u00e0 l&#8217;approche de la date limite d&#8217;ao\u00fbt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/latam.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el chez VT Markets.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le yen japonais a temporairement gagn\u00e9 du terrain apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections, mais l&#8217;incertitude politique et la position prudente de la BoJ suscitent des doutes sur la durabilit\u00e9 de cette reprise. &#8211; latam.vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19512"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19512\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}