{"id":69874,"date":"2026-10-20T06:05:21","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T06:05:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/uncategorized\/eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T06:05:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T06:05:21","slug":"eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/analysis\/eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019EUR\/USD demeure stable dans un climat d\u2019agitation politique en Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad6d3bd722b1.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019EURUSD se n\u00e9gocie pr\u00e8s de 1,12181, en hausse de 0,06 %, alors que le dollar am\u00e9ricain a de la difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 prendre une direction claire durant la s\u00e9ance asiatique de mardi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019instabilit\u00e9 politique en France et en Italie soul\u00e8ve des inqui\u00e9tudes sur la stabilit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne, ce qui met de la pression sur les actions (titres boursiers) de la r\u00e9gion et sur les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019\u00e9cart de rendement entre les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 10 ans fran\u00e7aises et allemandes s\u2019est \u00e9largi de 9,9 points de base \u00e0 147,3 points de base lundi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain a atteint 102 lundi, tandis que le rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans est rest\u00e9 \u00e0 5,131 %.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD se n\u00e9gociait pr\u00e8s de <strong>1,12181<\/strong> pendant la s\u00e9ance asiatique de mardi, avec un gain modeste de <strong>0,06 %<\/strong>. Un l\u00e9ger retour de la confiance des investisseurs a soutenu les devises sensibles au risque (devises qui montent quand les march\u00e9s sont plus confiants), mais l\u2019incertitude politique en Europe a frein\u00e9 la progression de l\u2019euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La paire a \u00e9volu\u00e9 dans une fourchette intrajournali\u00e8re \u00e9troite, avec un sommet \u00e0 <strong>1,12203<\/strong> et un creux \u00e0 <strong>1,12089<\/strong>. Les prix sont rest\u00e9s concentr\u00e9s autour de <strong>1,12180<\/strong>, ce qui indique que ni les acheteurs ni les vendeurs n\u2019ont pris le contr\u00f4le de fa\u00e7on durable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain est mont\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 <strong>102<\/strong> lundi, signe d\u2019une demande qui demeure pr\u00e9sente malgr\u00e9 un contexte mondial instable. Pendant ce temps, le rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans est rest\u00e9 stable \u00e0 <strong>5,131 %<\/strong>, ce qui laisse l\u2019EURUSD surtout expos\u00e9 au climat politique europ\u00e9en plut\u00f4t qu\u2019aux rendements am\u00e9ricains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les traders surveillent la situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les d\u00e9veloppements politiques en France sont devenus une source d\u2019incertitude pour l\u2019euro. Les autorit\u00e9s fran\u00e7aises ont instaur\u00e9 des couvre-feux dans plusieurs villes lundi apr\u00e8s que des manifestations nationales contre le gouvernement ont perturb\u00e9 l\u2019ordre public, ajoutant de la pression durant les derniers mois du mandat du pr\u00e9sident Emmanuel Macron.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces troubles ont raviv\u00e9 les inqui\u00e9tudes concernant les finances publiques de la France (la capacit\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 \u00e9quilibrer ses revenus et ses d\u00e9penses), surtout au moment o\u00f9 le Parlement se pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 son premier vote officiel sur le volet des revenus (imp\u00f4ts et recettes) du <strong>budget 2027<\/strong> propos\u00e9. De nouveaux d\u00e9saccords politiques pourraient compliquer les n\u00e9gociations budg\u00e9taires et peser sur la dette de l\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7ais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les march\u00e9s obligataires (march\u00e9s o\u00f9 s\u2019\u00e9changent les obligations) refl\u00e8tent d\u00e9j\u00e0 ces craintes. L\u2019\u00e9cart de rendement entre les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises et allemandes \u00e0 10 ans s\u2019est \u00e9largi \u00e0 <strong>142,3 points de base<\/strong> lundi. Un \u00e9cart plus grand signifie que les investisseurs exigent une \u201cprime\u201d de rendement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e pour d\u00e9tenir la dette fran\u00e7aise plut\u00f4t que les obligations allemandes, per\u00e7ues comme plus s\u00fbres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Investors Abandoning French Government Bonds for German Bunds <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5icGXC7osx\">https:\/\/t.co\/5icGXC7osx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2108361012051136600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les tensions politiques se sont aussi \u00e9tendues \u00e0 l\u2019Italie, o\u00f9 le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 le d\u00e9ploiement de 500 soldats apr\u00e8s deux jours de troubles. M\u00eame si l\u2019euro est demeur\u00e9 relativement stable, l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 dans de grandes \u00e9conomies europ\u00e9ennes pourrait accro\u00eetre la pression sur la monnaie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Violent protests spread from France to Italy and Belgium <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/evvm5uqg7i\">https:\/\/t.co\/evvm5uqg7i<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Financial Times (@FT) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/FT\/status\/2112184808025583737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux cl\u00e9s de n\u00e9gociation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/EURUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Graphique EURUSD<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;par TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:EURUSD\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Importance technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 2<\/td><td>1,12203<\/td><td>Sommet de s\u00e9ance et niveau de cassure (niveau au-dessus duquel le prix peut acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 1<\/td><td>1,122<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance psychologique imm\u00e9diate (niveau rond souvent surveill\u00e9)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pivot<\/td><td>1,1218<\/td><td>Zone de n\u00e9gociation actuelle<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Soutien 1<\/td><td>1,1216<\/td><td>Niveau de r\u00e9action \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Soutien 2<\/td><td>1,1214<\/td><td>Soutien intrajournalier r\u00e9cent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Soutien 3<\/td><td>1,12089<\/td><td>Creux de s\u00e9ance et rep\u00e8re baissier<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD affiche un rebond \u00e0 court terme, puis une phase de consolidation (mouvement lat\u00e9ral) <strong>sous 1,12200<\/strong>. La moyenne mobile \u00e0 neuf p\u00e9riodes (MA9, un indicateur qui lisse les prix sur les 9 derni\u00e8res p\u00e9riodes) s\u2019est redress\u00e9e apr\u00e8s le rebond depuis 1,12140, mais l\u2019\u00e9volution r\u00e9cente sugg\u00e8re que l\u2019\u00e9lan (la force du mouvement) ralentit pr\u00e8s de la r\u00e9sistance. La paire a eu du mal \u00e0 conserver des gains <strong>au-dessus de 1,12200<\/strong>, ce qui en fait la r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate \u00e0 surveiller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>1,12160<\/strong> repr\u00e9sente le premier niveau de soutien. Un passage sous ce niveau pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 <strong>1,12140<\/strong>, o\u00f9 des acheteurs s\u2019\u00e9taient d\u00e9j\u00e0 manifest\u00e9s. Une baisse plus marqu\u00e9e vers <strong>1,12089<\/strong> indiquerait que le rebond perd de la vigueur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad6d3bec05d8.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Cible possible<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Mouvement durable au-dessus de 1,12203<\/td><td>1,12220\u20131,12240<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rebond haussier<\/td><td>Maintien au-dessus de 1,12160<\/td><td>1,12180\u20131,12200<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>\u00c9chec \u00e0 franchir 1,12200<\/td><td>1,1216<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Passage sous 1,12140<\/td><td>1,12089<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier exigerait que l\u2019EURUSD \u00e9tablisse un soutien <strong>au-dessus de 1,12160<\/strong> avant de s\u2019attaquer \u00e0 la zone de r\u00e9sistance 1,12200\u20131,12203. Un meilleur app\u00e9tit pour le risque (volont\u00e9 des investisseurs d\u2019acheter des actifs plus risqu\u00e9s) et une baisse des inqui\u00e9tudes politiques en Europe pourraient appuyer ce mouvement. Une cassure confirm\u00e9e pourrait permettre une extension vers 1,12220\u20131,12240.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait se former si l\u2019EURUSD continue de subir des ventes <strong>pr\u00e8s de 1,12200<\/strong>. Une baisse sous 1,12160 affaiblirait le rebond imm\u00e9diat, tandis qu\u2019un recul sous 1,12140 pourrait ramener le creux de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 1,12089. Un \u00e9largissement suppl\u00e9mentaire des \u00e9carts de rendement France\u2013Allemagne pourrait renforcer cette pression \u00e0 la baisse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avis de non-responsabilit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et les sc\u00e9narios de march\u00e9 ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019\u00e9valuation de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil financier ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Les traders devraient faire leur propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision EURUSD : et ensuite?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD pourrait rester coinc\u00e9 dans une fourchette \u00e0 court terme, alors que les traders mettent en balance un meilleur app\u00e9tit mondial pour le risque et une incertitude politique grandissante en Europe. La stabilit\u00e9 de la paire indique que les investisseurs ne consid\u00e8rent pas encore les troubles en France comme une crise financi\u00e8re plus large dans la zone euro. Cela dit, une pression accrue sur les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises pourrait miner la confiance envers la monnaie unique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le prochain facteur d\u00e9terminant sera l\u2019\u00e9volution du dossier du budget fran\u00e7ais 2027 et la r\u00e9action des march\u00e9s obligataires europ\u00e9ens. Des progr\u00e8s vers une entente budg\u00e9taire r\u00e9aliste pourraient att\u00e9nuer les inqui\u00e9tudes li\u00e9es au risque souverain (risque qu\u2019un \u00c9tat ait de la difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 rembourser sa dette) et soutenir l\u2019EURUSD. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, des troubles politiques prolong\u00e9s ou des \u00e9carts de rendement en hausse pourraient pousser la paire \u00e0 la baisse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les attentes concernant la politique mon\u00e9taire am\u00e9ricaine influenceront aussi les perspectives. Des rendements du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e9lev\u00e9s et une demande renouvel\u00e9e pour le dollar pourraient limiter le rebond de l\u2019euro, tandis que des rendements am\u00e9ricains plus bas pourraient donner de l\u2019espace \u00e0 l\u2019EURUSD pour avancer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">N\u00e9gociez l\u2019EURUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD est l\u2019une des paires de devises (forex) les plus n\u00e9goci\u00e9es au monde. Elle permet aux traders de se positionner sur l\u2019\u00e9volution des attentes li\u00e9es \u00e0 la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne et \u00e0 la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, \u00e0 l\u2019inflation, \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique et au sentiment de risque mondial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VT Markets<\/a>, les traders peuvent suivre les mouvements de l\u2019EURUSD, analyser les tendances techniques et g\u00e9rer leurs positions au moyen de plateformes comme MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 et l\u2019appli VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Questions fr\u00e9quentes<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi l\u2019EURUSD se n\u00e9gocie-t-il pr\u00e8s de 1,12181?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD se n\u00e9gocie pr\u00e8s de 1,12181 parce qu\u2019un l\u00e9ger retour de l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque soutient l\u2019euro, tandis que les troubles politiques en France et en Italie limitent les gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 politique en France peut-elle affecter l\u2019EURUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019instabilit\u00e9 politique peut affaiblir la confiance envers les actifs europ\u00e9ens et accro\u00eetre la demande pour des options jug\u00e9es plus s\u00fbres. Si les rendements des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises continuent de monter par rapport \u00e0 ceux de l\u2019Allemagne, l\u2019euro pourrait subir une pression de vente suppl\u00e9mentaire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les principaux niveaux de r\u00e9sistance pour l\u2019EURUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe \u00e0 1,12200, suivie du sommet de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 1,12203. Un franchissement durable de ces niveaux pourrait favoriser un retour vers 1,12220\u20131,12240.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les principaux niveaux de soutien pour l\u2019EURUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le soutien imm\u00e9diat est \u00e0 1,12160, suivi de 1,12140. Si la pression de vente s\u2019intensifie, l\u2019EURUSD pourrait retester le creux de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 1,12089.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L\u2019EURUSD peut-il monter malgr\u00e9 l\u2019incertitude politique en Europe?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui. L\u2019EURUSD pourrait se renforcer si les rendements des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain baissent, si le dollar s\u2019affaiblit ou si la situation politique en Europe se stabilise. Toutefois, une hausse durable exigerait probablement un \u00e9lan acheteur plus fort et une cassure confirm\u00e9e au-dessus des r\u00e9sistances \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019euro flirte avec 1,1218: pr\u00eat \u00e0 d\u00e9coller ou \u00e0 d\u00e9crocher? Le dollar h\u00e9site, tandis que l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 en France et en Italie \u00e9largit les \u00e9carts obligataires, pesant sur la devise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69873,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L\u2019euro flirte avec 1,1218: pr\u00eat \u00e0 d\u00e9coller ou \u00e0 d\u00e9crocher? 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