{"id":69864,"date":"2026-10-19T10:06:57","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T10:06:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/uncategorized\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T10:06:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T10:06:57","slug":"crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/analysis\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Le p\u00e9trole brut recule, l\u2019offre russe pesant sur les prix"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5be2ebfef4.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USOUSD met fin \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie de sept s\u00e9ances de hausse, alors que les investisseurs r\u00e9\u00e9valuent la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un retour de volumes additionnels de carburant russe sur le march\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La d\u00e9cision du pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump de suspendre certaines sanctions et certains droits de douane visant la Russie renforce l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une offre mondiale de p\u00e9trole plus abondante.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les attaques contre des p\u00e9troliers pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Hormuz et les frappes ukrainiennes visant des installations p\u00e9troli\u00e8res russes continuent de menacer l\u2019approvisionnement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Des prix \u00e0 l\u2019importation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats-Unis alimentent les craintes d\u2019inflation avant la d\u00e9cision de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale sur les taux.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9sistance se situe vers 98,500\u201398,550, tandis que les appuis (supports) autour de 98,400 et 98,350 pourraient dicter le prochain mouvement \u00e0 tr\u00e8s court terme.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole brut am\u00e9ricain ont recul\u00e9 lundi <strong>19 octobre<\/strong>, mettant fin \u00e0 une s\u00e9quence de sept s\u00e9ances de hausse, alors que les investisseurs ont revu les conditions d\u2019offre mondiale apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9cision de Washington d\u2019assouplir certaines restrictions sur les exportations d\u2019\u00e9nergie russes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil falls from five-month high as supply intact despite fighting<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tzZ3wSPxU1\">https:\/\/t.co\/tzZ3wSPxU1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; The Business Times (@BusinessTimes) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BusinessTimes\/status\/2112064964999479304?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le <strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<\/strong> (un p\u00e9trole de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence nord-am\u00e9ricain, souvent utilis\u00e9 comme prix rep\u00e8re) s\u2019\u00e9changeait pr\u00e8s de <strong>98,498<\/strong> lors de la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9ance. Le march\u00e9 a connu de forts \u00e9carts intrajournaliers (variations \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9rieur de la m\u00eame journ\u00e9e), dont une br\u00e8ve pouss\u00e9e vers <strong>98,550<\/strong>, suivie d\u2019un repli rapide vers <strong>98,370<\/strong>. Les prix se sont ensuite redress\u00e9s vers <strong>98,500<\/strong>, ce qui sugg\u00e8re un retour des acheteurs sur les creux malgr\u00e9 la baisse sur la s\u00e9ance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les investisseurs surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le recul fait suite \u00e0 la d\u00e9cision du pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump de suspendre temporairement des sanctions et des droits de douane visant la Russie, ce qui pourrait permettre \u00e0 davantage de carburant russe d\u2019arriver sur les march\u00e9s internationaux. Ce changement de politique att\u00e9nue une partie des craintes imm\u00e9diates de p\u00e9nurie d\u2019offre, surtout alors que la Turquie se pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 absorber davantage d\u2019exportations de diesel russe. Toutefois, les attaques visant des p\u00e9troliers pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Hormuz et les frappes de drones ukrainiens contre des installations p\u00e9troli\u00e8res russes maintiennent un risque \u00e9lev\u00e9 sur l\u2019offre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ukraine launched a massive overnight aerial attack, sending hundreds of drones toward targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg, striking a major oil terminal again despite pressure from President Trump to end such attacks. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon\">https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon<\/a><\/p>&mdash; ABC News (@ABC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ABC\/status\/2111800494121247112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 18, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La politique mon\u00e9taire am\u00e9ricaine (la fa\u00e7on dont la banque centrale ajuste les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et les conditions de cr\u00e9dit) compte aussi. En septembre, les prix \u00e0 l\u2019importation ont augment\u00e9 plus que pr\u00e9vu, en partie \u00e0 cause de co\u00fbts \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, ce qui renforce les craintes d\u2019une inflation tenace. Si la Fed d\u00e9cidait d\u2019ajouter une nouvelle hausse de taux, cela pourrait accentuer la pression sur les prix du p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les investisseurs surveillent la prochaine r\u00e9union du <strong>Federal Open Market Committee<\/strong> (FOMC, le comit\u00e9 de la Fed qui d\u00e9cide des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat), les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation <strong>PCE<\/strong> (indice des d\u00e9penses de consommation, une mesure cl\u00e9 de l\u2019inflation) et les nouvelles li\u00e9es aux approvisionnements \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques russes et moyen-orientaux pour obtenir des indices sur la prochaine direction des prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux de n\u00e9gociation cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Graphique USOIL<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;par TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"TVC:USOIL\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix (USD)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Importance technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 2<\/td><td>98,55<\/td><td>Sommet intrajournalier r\u00e9cent et r\u00e9sistance sup\u00e9rieure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 1<\/td><td>98,5<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate et zone de rejet r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9e (le prix y bloque souvent)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prix actuel<\/td><td>98,498<\/td><td>Dernier prix cot\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 1<\/td><td>98,45<\/td><td>Support \u00e0 court terme et zone de consolidation (p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 le prix oscille dans une fourchette)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 2<\/td><td>98,4<\/td><td>Creux de r\u00e9action pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent et support psychologique (niveau rond souvent surveill\u00e9)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 3<\/td><td>98,370\u201398,350<\/td><td>Zone de rebond intrajournalier et support inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USOUSD fait face \u00e0 une r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate \u00e0 <strong>98,500<\/strong>, o\u00f9 les tentatives r\u00e9centes de prolonger le rebond ont eu du mal \u00e0 se maintenir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>98,450<\/strong> constitue le premier support. Un passage sous ce niveau pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 <strong>98,400<\/strong>, puis \u00e0 la <strong>zone 98,370\u201398,350<\/strong>, o\u00f9 des acheteurs s\u2019\u00e9taient d\u00e9j\u00e0 manifest\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La <strong>moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes<\/strong> (moyenne des 9 derni\u00e8res bougies\/jours sur le graphique, utilis\u00e9e pour jauger la tendance \u00e0 court terme) reste pr\u00e8s du prix actuel, ce qui indique un manque de conviction directionnelle. Tant que le prix oscille autour de <strong>98,500<\/strong>, plusieurs investisseurs pourraient attendre une cassure \u00e0 la hausse ou une rupture \u00e0 la baisse plus nette avant d\u2019\u00e9valuer la prochaine direction \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5be3019fb6.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Objectif potentiel<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Implication pour le march\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rebond haussier<\/td><td>Le prix tient au-dessus de 98,500<\/td><td>98,55<\/td><td>Les acheteurs reprennent le contr\u00f4le \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Mouvement durable au-dessus de 98,550<\/td><td>Hausse suppl\u00e9mentaire, non confirm\u00e9e<\/td><td>Rebond plus solide<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>Le prix n\u2019arrive pas \u00e0 tenir 98,500<\/td><td>98,45<\/td><td>La pression vendeuse revient<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Le prix passe sous 98,400<\/td><td>98,370\u201398,350<\/td><td>La baisse s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e8re<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier pourrait se mettre en place si USOUSD arrive \u00e0 s\u2019appuyer <strong>au-dessus de 98,500<\/strong>. Cela indiquerait que les acheteurs absorbent la pression vendeuse, ce qui pourrait permettre un nouveau test de <strong>98,550<\/strong>. Un mouvement durable au-del\u00e0 de cette r\u00e9sistance pourrait soutenir une poursuite de la hausse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait appara\u00eetre si les prix n\u2019arrivent pas \u00e0 maintenir le rebond pr\u00e8s de <strong>98,500<\/strong>. Une baisse sous <strong>98,450<\/strong> mettrait <strong>98,400<\/strong> au premier plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avis de non-responsabilit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et les sc\u00e9narios de march\u00e9 ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019\u00e9valuation de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil financier ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Les investisseurs devraient faire leur propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision USOUSD : et maintenant?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">M\u00eame si la suspension des sanctions am\u00e9ricaines ajoute une source possible d\u2019offre de carburant, le march\u00e9 demeure incertain quant \u00e0 son application et \u00e0 sa stabilit\u00e9. Les attaques touchant le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Hormuz et les installations \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques russes limitent aussi le potentiel de baisse, car toute perturbation du transport maritime ou des infrastructures d\u2019exportation pourrait relancer l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat acheteur pour le brut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine et les attentes de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat influenceront aussi les perspectives. Si la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale maintient une orientation restrictive (des taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s plus longtemps pour freiner l\u2019inflation), un dollar am\u00e9ricain plus fort et des anticipations de demande plus faibles pourraient peser sur le brut. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un apaisement des craintes d\u2019inflation pourrait soutenir le sentiment de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">N\u00e9gociez USOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les investisseurs peuvent acc\u00e9der \u00e0 USOUSD via VT Markets et suivre les mouvements du brut avec l\u2019appli VT Markets, MetaTrader 4 et MetaTrader 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole peuvent r\u00e9agir rapidement aux changements d\u2019anticipations d\u2019offre mondiale, aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements g\u00e9opolitiques, aux donn\u00e9es sur les stocks (quantit\u00e9s de p\u00e9trole entrepos\u00e9es) et aux perturbations du transport maritime. Ces facteurs peuvent influencer l\u2019\u00e9lan des prix et accro\u00eetre la volatilit\u00e9 (variations rapides et marqu\u00e9es des prix).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec les outils de graphiques et d\u2019analyse de march\u00e9 de VT Markets, les investisseurs peuvent suivre l\u2019\u00e9lan des prix, rep\u00e9rer les niveaux de support et de r\u00e9sistance, et \u00e9valuer des configurations possibles sur USOUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Foire aux questions<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi USOUSD baisse aujourd\u2019hui?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USOUSD a recul\u00e9 apr\u00e8s la suspension temporaire par les \u00c9tats-Unis de certaines sanctions et de certains droits de douane visant la Russie, ce qui augmente les attentes d\u2019exportations russes de carburant. La perspective d\u2019une offre additionnelle p\u00e8se sur le brut, malgr\u00e9 des perturbations g\u00e9opolitiques toujours pr\u00e9sentes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les niveaux cl\u00e9s de support et de r\u00e9sistance sur USOUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe pr\u00e8s de 98,500 et 98,550. Les supports se trouvent autour de 98,450 et 98,400, puis dans la zone plus basse 98,370\u201398,350.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole peuvent-ils monter malgr\u00e9 des exportations russes en hausse?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui. De nouvelles attaques contre des infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, des restrictions touchant le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Hormuz ou des perturbations des routes maritimes pourraient r\u00e9duire l\u2019offre disponible et soutenir les prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale peut-elle influencer le prix de USOUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s peuvent renforcer le dollar am\u00e9ricain et peser sur les attentes d\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et de demande de p\u00e9trole. Une orientation moins restrictive pourrait offrir un soutien, m\u00eame si les conditions d\u2019offre physique demeurent d\u00e9terminantes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Que devraient surveiller les investisseurs ensuite pour USOUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ils peuvent suivre l\u2019\u00e9volution des exportations russes de carburant, les perturbations maritimes au Moyen-Orient, les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaines et la prochaine r\u00e9union de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Revirement sur le WTI: fin de sept hausses. L\u2019assouplissement Trump des sanctions russes alimente l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une offre accrue, malgr\u00e9 risques Hormuz. Inflations US\/Fed \u00e0 surveiller; niveaux cl\u00e9s 98,55 r\u00e9sistance, 98,35 support.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69863,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Revirement sur le WTI: fin de sept hausses. L\u2019assouplissement Trump des sanctions russes alimente l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une offre accrue, malgr\u00e9 risques Hormuz. 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