{"id":69835,"date":"2026-10-16T06:06:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T06:06:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/uncategorized\/new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T06:06:45","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T06:06:45","slug":"new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/analysis\/new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low\/","title":{"rendered":"Le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais se redresse apr\u00e8s un creux de 18 mois"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad198d674702.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le NZD\/USD rebondit vers 0,5640, apr\u00e8s un creux de 18 mois, alors que la baisse des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain (taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pay\u00e9s par l\u2019\u00c9tat am\u00e9ricain) p\u00e8se sur le dollar US.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les attentes d\u2019une hausse de taux de la RBNZ (Banque de r\u00e9serve de Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande, la banque centrale) soutiennent le \u00ab kiwi \u00bb (dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais), apr\u00e8s que l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef Paul Conway a indiqu\u00e9 qu\u2019une hausse du taux directeur (OCR, le principal taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat fix\u00e9 par la banque centrale) demeure l\u2019issue la plus probable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les donn\u00e9es am\u00e9ricaines sur l\u2019inflation et les d\u00e9penses restent solides, ce qui maintient au centre des attentes l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un resserrement suppl\u00e9mentaire de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed, la banque centrale am\u00e9ricaine), malgr\u00e9 la r\u00e9cente faiblesse du dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le prochain grand d\u00e9clencheur sera le rapport d\u2019inflation du 3e trimestre en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande; sa publication devrait influencer les march\u00e9s avant la r\u00e9union de la RBNZ du 28 octobre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9sistance technique se situe \u00e0 0,5640, tandis que les appuis (supports) autour de 0,5635 et 0,5630 pourraient d\u00e9terminer si le rebond \u00e0 court terme se poursuit.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais s\u2019est raffermi vendredi, prolongeant son rebond depuis un <strong>creux de 18 mois<\/strong>, alors que le recul des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain a mis le dollar US sous pression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD est mont\u00e9 vers <strong>0,5620 $<\/strong> dans le cadre du rebond plus large, tandis que la plus r\u00e9cente s\u00e9ance montrait la paire \u00e0 <strong>0,56398<\/strong>, en hausse de <strong>0,35 %<\/strong>. Le mouvement intrajournalier (variation \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9rieur d\u2019une m\u00eame s\u00e9ance) traduit un regain d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour le kiwi, apr\u00e8s plusieurs semaines de ventes soutenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le kiwi gagne environ <strong>0,3 %<\/strong> cette semaine et se dirige vers la fin d\u2019une s\u00e9rie de sept semaines de baisse. M\u00eame si le rebond laisse croire que la pression vendeuse s\u2019att\u00e9nue, la perspective d\u2019ensemble reste tr\u00e8s d\u00e9pendante des attentes de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande et aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les traders surveillent \u00e7a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le rebond du NZD\/USD attire l\u2019attention, alors que les traders r\u00e9\u00e9valuent les perspectives de politique mon\u00e9taire de la <strong>Banque de r\u00e9serve de Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande (RBNZ)<\/strong> et de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeudi, l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef de la RBNZ, Paul Conway, a indiqu\u00e9 que la d\u00e9cision de taux de fin octobre demeure ouverte. Cela dit, les d\u00e9cideurs consid\u00e8rent toujours qu\u2019une hausse de l\u2019OCR (taux directeur) est le sc\u00e9nario le plus probable, m\u00eame si le moment exact reste incertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces commentaires ont soutenu le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais en renfor\u00e7ant l\u2019id\u00e9e que les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt pourraient augmenter. Des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s peuvent rendre une devise plus attrayante, surtout si les investisseurs s\u2019attendent \u00e0 un \u00e9cart de taux (diff\u00e9rence entre les taux de deux pays) qui se resserre. En parall\u00e8le, la baisse des rendements am\u00e9ricains a affaibli le dollar US, ce qui a am\u00e9lior\u00e9 le contexte pour le NZD\/USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The dollar just had its worst day in over a month, despite ongoing inflation pressures.<br><br>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% Thursday as worries about AI pushed investors into Treasuries, sending yields lower.<br><br>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8fRrZnimK4\">https:\/\/t.co\/8fRrZnimK4<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SMu0yejZEh\">pic.twitter.com\/SMu0yejZEh<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/2110864560487804938?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 15, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux cl\u00e9s \u00e0 surveiller<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/NZDUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Graphique NZDUSD<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;par TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:NZDUSD\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Importance technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate<\/td><td>0,564<\/td><td>Niveau psychologique pr\u00e8s du sommet de s\u00e9ance sur le graphique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance \u00e0 court terme<\/td><td>0,5638<\/td><td>Zone r\u00e9cente de stabilisation (consolidation) avant la derni\u00e8re hausse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Appui imm\u00e9diat (support)<\/td><td>0,5635<\/td><td>Ancienne zone de cassure et de stabilisation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Appui secondaire<\/td><td>0,563<\/td><td>Fourchette intrajournali\u00e8re pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Appui inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><td>0,56275<\/td><td>Zone approximative o\u00f9 le rebond visible a commenc\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La paire a encha\u00een\u00e9 des sommets et des creux de plus en plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, tout en restant au-dessus de sa moyenne mobile \u00e0 neuf p\u00e9riodes (moyenne des prix r\u00e9cents sur 9 bougies\/points de temps). La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe \u00e0 <strong>0,56400<\/strong>, alors que le NZD\/USD s\u2019approche de la limite haute de sa fourchette visible. Un passage durable au-dessus de ce niveau pourrait indiquer que les acheteurs gardent la main.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>0,56350<\/strong> est le premier appui important, puisqu\u2019il a servi de zone de stabilisation pendant le rebond. Un passage sous ce niveau pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 0,56300, o\u00f9 les prix avaient \u00e9volu\u00e9 avant la mont\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad198d7efc97.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Cible possible<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Implication pour le march\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Passage durable au-dessus de 0,56400<\/td><td>Hausse additionnelle, cible non confirm\u00e9e<\/td><td>Possible poursuite de l\u2019\u00e9lan haussier<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poursuite haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Le prix se maintient au-dessus de 0,56350<\/td><td>0,56380\u20130,56400<\/td><td>Les acheteurs conservent le contr\u00f4le du rebond<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>Le prix n\u2019arrive pas \u00e0 franchir 0,56400<\/td><td>0,5635<\/td><td>Repli possible \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Le prix passe sous 0,56350<\/td><td>0,56300\u20130,56275<\/td><td>L\u2019\u00e9lan du rebond s\u2019essouffle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier pourrait se mettre en place si le NZD\/USD se maintient au-dessus de <strong>0,56350<\/strong> et franchit 0,56400. La s\u00e9quence de sommets et de creux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s laisse croire que les acheteurs gagnent en vitesse, soutenus par la moyenne mobile \u00e0 neuf p\u00e9riodes orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la hausse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait appara\u00eetre si le NZD\/USD fait face \u00e0 des ventes autour de <strong>0,56400<\/strong> et n\u2019arrive pas \u00e0 \u00e9tablir une fourchette de prix plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e. Une premi\u00e8re baisse vers 0,56350 mettrait \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve la solidit\u00e9 de la cassure r\u00e9cente. Si cet appui c\u00e8de, la paire pourrait reculer vers 0,56300, puis vers la zone intrajournali\u00e8re plus basse autour de 0,56275.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avis de non-responsabilit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s refl\u00e8tent l\u2019\u00e9valuation de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Il ne s\u2019agit pas de conseils financiers ni d\u2019une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Les traders devraient faire leur propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision NZDUSD : qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait le faire monter ou baisser ensuite?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le prochain moteur important sera le rapport d\u2019inflation du troisi\u00e8me trimestre en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande, attendu la semaine prochaine. Comme il s\u2019agit de la derni\u00e8re grande publication \u00e9conomique avant la r\u00e9union de la RBNZ du 28 octobre, ces donn\u00e9es pourraient modifier les attentes du march\u00e9 sur le moment et la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une hausse de taux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu pourrait renforcer l\u2019argument en faveur d\u2019une politique mon\u00e9taire plus restrictive (hausse des taux ou conditions de cr\u00e9dit plus serr\u00e9es) et soutenir le kiwi. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une inflation plus faible pourrait r\u00e9duire les attentes d\u2019une hausse rapide des taux et freiner le rebond de la devise. Une poursuite de la baisse des rendements am\u00e9ricains pourrait aussi aider la paire, en rendant les placements libell\u00e9s en dollars US moins attrayants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cependant, le rebond pourrait se heurter \u00e0 une r\u00e9sistance si l\u2019inflation n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaise est inf\u00e9rieure aux attentes ou si les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques am\u00e9ricaines relancent l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un resserrement additionnel de la Fed. Dans un cas comme dans l\u2019autre, les attentes de taux pourraient basculer en faveur du dollar US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">N\u00e9gociez le NZDUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD fait partie des grandes paires de devises (forex, march\u00e9 des changes) offertes chez VT Markets. Les traders peuvent acc\u00e9der au march\u00e9 des devises via l\u2019appli VT Markets, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 et d\u2019autres plateformes prises en charge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des graphiques en temps r\u00e9el, des indicateurs techniques (outils bas\u00e9s sur les prix et les volumes pour \u00e9valuer la tendance) et des outils d\u2019analyse, les traders peuvent suivre les mouvements du NZD\/USD et \u00e9valuer l\u2019effet des statistiques \u00e9conomiques, des attentes de taux et des d\u00e9cisions des banques centrales sur les devises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Foire aux questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le NZD\/USD monte-t-il?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD s\u2019est raffermi parce que la baisse des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain a affaibli le dollar US, tandis que des commentaires plus \u00ab restrictifs \u00bb (hawkish, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire favorables \u00e0 une hausse des taux pour freiner l\u2019inflation) de l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef de la RBNZ, Paul Conway, ont soutenu les attentes d\u2019une possible hausse de taux en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les principaux niveaux d\u2019appui (support) du NZD\/USD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019appui imm\u00e9diat se situe autour de 0,56350, puis 0,56300 et 0,56275. Ces niveaux correspondent \u00e0 des zones r\u00e9centes de stabilisation et de rebond visibles sur le graphique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment l\u2019inflation n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaise pourrait-elle affecter le NZD\/USD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu pourrait augmenter les attentes d\u2019une hausse de taux de la RBNZ et ainsi soutenir le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais. Une inflation plus faible pourrait r\u00e9duire ces attentes et exercer une pression \u00e0 la baisse sur le NZD\/USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quand aura lieu la prochaine d\u00e9cision de taux de la RBNZ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La prochaine d\u00e9cision de taux de la RBNZ est pr\u00e9vue le 28 octobre 2026, selon l\u2019information de march\u00e9 fournie. Les traders surveilleront les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation du troisi\u00e8me trimestre avant la r\u00e9union pour obtenir des indices sur l\u2019orientation de la banque centrale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le NZD\/USD peut-il continuer de monter?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD pourrait prolonger son rebond si la paire d\u00e9passe 0,56400 et si les attentes de taux demeurent favorables au kiwi. Toutefois, un retour de la demande pour le dollar US ou des donn\u00e9es n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaises plus faibles pourraient renverser l\u2019\u00e9lan \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s un creux de 18 mois, le NZD\/USD rebondit vers 0,5640: rendements US en baisse et pari d\u2019une hausse de la RBNZ dopent le kiwi. Inflation n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaise T3: prochain catalyseur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69834,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Apr\u00e8s un creux de 18 mois, le NZD\/USD rebondit vers 0,5640: rendements US en baisse et pari d\u2019une hausse de la RBNZ dopent le kiwi. 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