{"id":69552,"date":"2026-10-12T06:09:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T06:09:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/uncategorized\/usdinr-falls-as-rbi-intervenes-to-support-the-rupee\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T06:09:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T06:09:55","slug":"usdinr-falls-as-rbi-intervenes-to-support-the-rupee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/analysis\/usdinr-falls-as-rbi-intervenes-to-support-the-rupee\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019USDINR recule alors que la RBI intervient pour soutenir la roupie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acc716ab99be.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019USDINR s\u2019\u00e9change pr\u00e8s de<strong> 96,321<\/strong>, en baisse de 0,63 %, alors que la roupie indienne se raffermit apr\u00e8s de nouvelles mesures d\u2019intervention de la Reserve Bank of India (RBI, la banque centrale de l\u2019Inde).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La RBI a mis en place une fen\u00eatre sp\u00e9ciale d\u2019approvisionnement en dollars, un m\u00e9canisme qui fournit des dollars au march\u00e9, pour couvrir les besoins quotidiens de trois soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res publiques.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Une <strong>r\u00e9serve de risque de change<\/strong> de <strong>20 %<\/strong> s\u2019applique maintenant \u00e0 certains contrats de <strong>d\u00e9riv\u00e9s<\/strong> en roupies de plus de 2 M$ US. Autrement dit, les intervenants doivent immobiliser des liquidit\u00e9s, ce qui rend certaines <strong>couvertures de change<\/strong> (protection contre les variations de devises) plus co\u00fbteuses.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le seuil pour certaines op\u00e9rations sur d\u00e9riv\u00e9s a \u00e9t\u00e9 abaiss\u00e9 de 100 M$ US \u00e0 <strong>5 M$ US<\/strong>, ce qui resserre les r\u00e8gles sur les activit\u00e9s de change.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s du p\u00e9trole brut, les rendements des obligations am\u00e9ricaines et les sorties de capitaux \u00e9trangers (ventes d\u2019actifs indiens par des investisseurs internationaux) demeurent des risques pour un redressement durable de la roupie.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La roupie indienne s\u2019est appr\u00e9ci\u00e9e face au dollar am\u00e9ricain lundi, <strong>le 12 octobre 2026<\/strong>, apr\u00e8s que la RBI a annonc\u00e9 plusieurs mesures visant \u00e0 r\u00e9duire la demande de dollars et \u00e0 stabiliser le march\u00e9 des changes (le march\u00e9 o\u00f9 s\u2019\u00e9changent les devises).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Indian rupee advanced in offshore trading after the central bank took some of its strongest measures to bolster the currency since the 2013 taper tantrum <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gaDxRKNq3y\">https:\/\/t.co\/gaDxRKNq3y<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2109464114393207153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 12, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019USDINR s\u2019\u00e9changeait pr\u00e8s de <strong>96,321<\/strong>, en baisse de 0,609 point, soit 0,63 %, ce qui refl\u00e8te un regain d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour la roupie apr\u00e8s les annonces de la RBI. Le rebond survient apr\u00e8s plusieurs mois de pression sur la devise indienne. En 2026, la roupie a perdu pr\u00e8s de <strong>7 %<\/strong> face au dollar, p\u00e9nalis\u00e9e par la hausse du p\u00e9trole brut, des rendements obligataires am\u00e9ricains \u00e9lev\u00e9s et des sorties de capitaux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les op\u00e9rateurs surveillent l\u2019USDINR<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La RBI a annonc\u00e9 ses mesures le <strong>10 octobre<\/strong>, avant l\u2019entr\u00e9e en vigueur, lundi, de la facilit\u00e9 sp\u00e9ciale en dollars. Concr\u00e8tement, la banque centrale fournira des dollars, via des banques d\u00e9sign\u00e9es, \u00e0 trois grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s publiques de commercialisation de carburants : Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation et Bharat Petroleum Corporation. Ces entreprises ont besoin de montants importants en dollars pour payer les importations de p\u00e9trole brut de l\u2019Inde. En canalisant leurs achats vers cette facilit\u00e9, la RBI cherche \u00e0 r\u00e9duire la demande imm\u00e9diate de dollars sur le <strong>march\u00e9 au comptant<\/strong> (transactions r\u00e9gl\u00e9es rapidement, au prix du jour).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La banque centrale a aussi resserr\u00e9 les r\u00e8gles sur les <strong>d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de change<\/strong> (contrats dont la valeur d\u00e9pend d\u2019une devise, utilis\u00e9s notamment pour se prot\u00e9ger). Les interm\u00e9diaires doivent maintenant conserver une r\u00e9serve en liquidit\u00e9s \u00e9quivalente \u00e0<strong> 20 %<\/strong> de la valeur en roupies de certains contrats de d\u00e9riv\u00e9s d\u00e9passant<strong> 2 M$ US<\/strong>, lorsque ces contrats servent \u00e0 acheter une devise \u00e9trang\u00e8re contre la roupie afin de couvrir des op\u00e9rations du <strong>compte courant<\/strong> (paiements li\u00e9s au commerce et aux services). Par ailleurs, le seuil de certaines op\u00e9rations sur d\u00e9riv\u00e9s effectu\u00e9es <strong>sans exposition r\u00e9elle<\/strong> sous-jacente (sans besoin \u00e9conomique concret \u00e0 couvrir) a \u00e9t\u00e9 abaiss\u00e9 de <strong>100 M$ US \u00e0 5 M$ US<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces mesures ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 eu un effet sur les march\u00e9s de devises \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tranger. Le contrat \u00e0 un mois USDINR en <strong>contrat \u00e0 terme non livrable (NDF)<\/strong> \u2014 un contrat \u00e0 terme r\u00e9gl\u00e9 en esp\u00e8ces, sans livraison de la devise \u2014 a recul\u00e9 d\u2019environ 40 paise dans des \u00e9changes peu actifs, signalant un raffermissement initial de la roupie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques \u00e0 surveiller<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USDINR\/?exchange=FX\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">USDINR chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"FX:USDINR\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Importance technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 3<\/td><td>96,80\u201396,93<\/td><td>Zone de reprise plus large au-dessus<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 2<\/td><td>96,6<\/td><td>Prolongement possible \u00e0 la hausse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 1<\/td><td>96,4<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate pr\u00e8s du sommet intrajournalier<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prix actuel<\/td><td>96,321<\/td><td>Derni\u00e8re lecture du graphique fourni<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Soutien 1<\/td><td>96,2<\/td><td>Zone de stabilisation intrajournali\u00e8re<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Soutien 2<\/td><td>96<\/td><td>Soutien psychologique pr\u00e8s du creux du d\u00e9but de s\u00e9ance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Soutien 3<\/td><td>95,93<\/td><td>Niveau du plus bas de s\u00e9ance<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La paire a rebondi en s\u00e9ance depuis la zone de 96,00 vers <strong>96,40<\/strong>, puis s\u2019est stabilis\u00e9e pr\u00e8s de 96,32. Le niveau 96,40 est la r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate \u00e0 surveiller, avec un sommet de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 <strong>96,409<\/strong>. Un passage durable au-dessus de cette zone pourrait ouvrir la voie vers 96,60.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>96,20<\/strong> est le premier niveau de soutien. Une cassure sous ce niveau pourrait ramener 96,00, puis le plus bas de s\u00e9ance pr\u00e8s de<strong> 95,93<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acc716bc71b2.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Confirmation<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Cibles possibles<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>Cassure durable au-dessus de 96,40<\/td><td>96,60, puis 96,80<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>Cassure durable sous 96,20<\/td><td>96,00, puis 95,93<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>En range (sans tendance)<\/td><td>Le prix reste entre 96,20 et 96,40<\/td><td>Stabilisation qui se prolonge<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans un sc\u00e9nario haussier, un mouvement durable <strong>au-dessus de 96,40<\/strong> pourrait signaler un retour de la demande de dollars malgr\u00e9 l\u2019intervention de la RBI. Une cassure confirm\u00e9e mettrait 96,60 en ligne de mire, puis 96,80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans un sc\u00e9nario baissier, une baisse durable <strong>sous 96,20<\/strong> indiquerait que le rebond de la roupie se poursuit, puisque l\u2019USDINR recule. Le prochain niveau serait 96,00, puis 95,93. Une baisse plus marqu\u00e9e pourrait survenir si la facilit\u00e9 d\u2019approvisionnement en dollars de la RBI r\u00e9duit plus que pr\u00e9vu la pression sur le march\u00e9 au comptant, surtout si les prix du p\u00e9trole et la demande mondiale de dollars diminuent. Cela dit, une cassure de soutien \u00e0 court terme ne signale pas forc\u00e9ment un changement durable de la tendance de fond de la roupie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avis de non-responsabilit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux et sc\u00e9narios ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019\u00e9valuation de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas des conseils financiers ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Faites vos propres analyses et g\u00e9rez le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision USDINR : principaux facteurs?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 court terme, la trajectoire de l\u2019USDINR d\u00e9pend de la capacit\u00e9 des nouvelles mesures de la RBI \u00e0 maintenir la pression sur la demande de dollars, dans un contexte mondial instable. Trois facteurs externes restent d\u00e9terminants. D\u2019abord, les <strong>prix du p\u00e9trole brut<\/strong> demeurent \u00e9lev\u00e9s. Le Brent se n\u00e9gociait autour de 103 $ US le baril lundi, en recul par rapport \u00e0 ses sommets. Comme l\u2019Inde importe beaucoup de p\u00e9trole, une hausse de la facture \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique peut accro\u00eetre la demande de dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ensuite, des <strong>rendements plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain<\/strong> (le taux offert par les obligations du gouvernement am\u00e9ricain) peuvent soutenir le dollar en attirant des capitaux vers les actifs am\u00e9ricains. Enfin, des <strong>sorties de capitaux de portefeuille<\/strong> (retraits d\u2019investisseurs \u00e9trangers des actions et obligations indiennes) peuvent peser sur la roupie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Foire aux questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi l\u2019USDINR baisse-t-il aujourd\u2019hui?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019USDINR recule apr\u00e8s de nouvelles mesures de la RBI visant \u00e0 soutenir la roupie. Elles comprennent une facilit\u00e9 sp\u00e9ciale d\u2019approvisionnement en dollars pour des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res, des limites plus strictes sur les op\u00e9rations de d\u00e9riv\u00e9s et une exigence de r\u00e9serve de 20 % sur certaines couvertures de change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce que la fen\u00eatre sp\u00e9ciale en dollars de la RBI?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce m\u00e9canisme permet \u00e0 trois soci\u00e9t\u00e9s p\u00e9troli\u00e8res publiques d\u2019acheter des dollars am\u00e9ricains via des banques d\u00e9sign\u00e9es, pendant que la RBI fournit la devise. L\u2019objectif est de r\u00e9duire la pression sur le march\u00e9 des changes au comptant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">La roupie indienne peut-elle se raffermir davantage?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui, si l\u2019intervention de la RBI r\u00e9duit encore la demande de dollars et si le contexte externe s\u2019am\u00e9liore. Toutefois, le p\u00e9trole cher, les rendements am\u00e9ricains \u00e9lev\u00e9s et les sorties de capitaux demeurent des freins possibles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment les prix du p\u00e9trole influencent-ils l\u2019USDINR?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019Inde paie g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement ses importations de p\u00e9trole en dollars am\u00e9ricains. Quand le p\u00e9trole monte, la demande de dollars peut augmenter et la roupie peut s\u2019affaiblir, ce qui tend \u00e0 faire monter l\u2019USDINR.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Coup de frein sur l\u2019USDINR: la RBI intervient. Fen\u00eatre sp\u00e9ciale en dollars pour p\u00e9troli\u00e8res et r\u00e8gles plus strictes sur d\u00e9riv\u00e9s (r\u00e9serve 20 %) raffermissent la roupie, malgr\u00e9 p\u00e9trole cher, rendements US \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69551,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coup de frein sur l\u2019USDINR: la RBI intervient. 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