{"id":69252,"date":"2026-10-02T10:06:36","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T10:06:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/uncategorized\/oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T10:06:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T10:06:36","slug":"oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/analysis\/oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated\/","title":{"rendered":"Le p\u00e9trole s\u2019envole alors que les risques d\u2019approvisionnement au Moyen-Orient maintiennent les prix \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/oil-1.webp\" alt=\"Le p\u00e9trole bondit \u00e0 mesure que la situation \u00e9volue au Moyen-Orient.\" class=\"wp-image-69760\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le UKOUSD se n\u00e9gocie autour de <strong>107,51 $<\/strong>, apr\u00e8s un rebond depuis un creux intrajournalier (atteint durant la s\u00e9ance) pr\u00e8s de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les prix du p\u00e9trole restent soutenus par la crainte qu\u2019une escalade au Moyen-Orient perturbe la production et le transport maritime dans la r\u00e9gion.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Des informations selon lesquelles les \u00c9tats-Unis envisageraient de d\u00e9ployer davantage de moyens militaires dans la r\u00e9gion ont fait grimper la <strong>prime de risque g\u00e9opolitique<\/strong> (suppl\u00e9ment de prix li\u00e9 aux risques de conflit) sur le march\u00e9 du brut.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019ol\u00e9oduc est\u2013ouest de l\u2019Arabie saoudite et la reprise des chargements de p\u00e9troliers \u00e0 Yanbu ont redonn\u00e9 une partie de la capacit\u00e9 d\u2019exportation, ce qui limite la hausse.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La suspension rapport\u00e9e des exportations chinoises de carburants (hors Hong Kong et Macao) en octobre pourrait resserrer le march\u00e9 des produits raffin\u00e9s (diesel, essence, k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne\/jet).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement du march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le UKOUSD se n\u00e9gocie autour de <strong>107,51 $<\/strong>, en baisse d\u2019environ <strong>0,13 %<\/strong>. Le p\u00e9trole a d\u2019abord recul\u00e9 d\u2019environ <strong>107,75 $<\/strong> vers un creux pr\u00e8s de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>, tandis que la <strong>moyenne mobile 9 p\u00e9riodes<\/strong> (moyenne des 9 derni\u00e8res bougies\/cours, utilis\u00e9e pour suivre la tendance \u00e0 court terme) s\u2019est orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la baisse sous l\u2019effet des ventes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019\u00e9lan s\u2019est ensuite am\u00e9lior\u00e9. Les prix ont rebondi, repassant au-dessus de <strong>107,40 $<\/strong> et fr\u00f4lant bri\u00e8vement <strong>107,50 $<\/strong>. Depuis, le UKOUSD \u00e9volue surtout entre <strong>107,40 $ et 107,50 $<\/strong>, et la moyenne mobile recommence \u00e0 pointer vers le haut. L\u2019action r\u00e9cente autour de <strong>107,50 $<\/strong> indique que les acheteurs reprennent l\u2019avantage \u00e0 tr\u00e8s court terme, sans perc\u00e9e nette.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les traders surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation au Moyen-Orient, le p\u00e9trole reste tr\u00e8s volatil (prix qui bouge vite et fortement). Des informations r\u00e9centes indiquent que Washington \u00e9tudie de nouveaux d\u00e9ploiements militaires, ce qui ravive la crainte d\u2019une escalade impliquant l\u2019Iran et d\u2019un risque pour les infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques ou les routes maritimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz reste central : toute perturbation du passage des p\u00e9troliers dans ce couloir maritime pourrait r\u00e9duire l\u2019offre physique (p\u00e9trole r\u00e9ellement livr\u00e9), ce qui ferait monter les prix. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, certains \u00e9l\u00e9ments limitent la hausse. L\u2019Arabie saoudite a relanc\u00e9 son ol\u00e9oduc est\u2013ouest et repris les chargements \u00e0 Yanbu, ce qui aide une partie des exportations \u00e0 contourner un risque de blocage dans le Golfe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Saudi Arabia has started exporting oil using a key cross-country pipeline after the link was repaired following drone strikes earlier this month, sources say <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dMB3rPf9dK\">https:\/\/t.co\/dMB3rPf9dK<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2104536628710535272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 28, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le march\u00e9 des carburants raffin\u00e9s est aussi \u00e0 surveiller. Selon certains rapports, des raffineurs chinois auraient suspendu en octobre les exportations de carburants hors Hong Kong et Macao, ce qui pourrait r\u00e9duire l\u2019offre mondiale de diesel, de carburant d\u2019aviation et d\u2019essence, alors que les exportations russes sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 limit\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Oil?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Oil<\/a> tops $102 as <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/China?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#China<\/a> halts fuel exports and US moves troops to Middle East<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aorouAJu2e\">https:\/\/t.co\/aorouAJu2e<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBCTV18Live\/status\/2105845200774103266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En ce moment, le march\u00e9 p\u00e8se le risque de p\u00e9nurie d\u2019offre contre la reprise des exportations r\u00e9gionales et les inqui\u00e9tudes plus larges sur la demande de p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --><div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/UKOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">UKOIL chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>  {  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,  \"calendar\": false,  \"details\": false,  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,  \"hide_legend\": false,  \"hide_volume\": false,  \"hotlist\": false,  \"interval\": \"D\",  \"locale\": \"en\",  \"save_image\": true,  \"style\": \"1\",  \"symbol\": \"TVC:UKOIL\",  \"theme\": \"dark\",  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",  \"watchlist\": [],  \"withdateranges\": false,  \"compareSymbols\": [],  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",  \"studies\": [],  \"width\": 900,  \"height\": 500}  <\/script><\/div><!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Importance<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\u00c0 surveiller<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>108,00 $\u2013108,02 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance majeure<\/td><td>Sommet de s\u00e9ance et r\u00e9sistance psychologique (niveau \u00ab rond \u00bb)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,60 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance<\/td><td>Un franchissement pourrait renforcer l\u2019\u00e9lan haussier \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,50 $<\/td><td>Pivot imm\u00e9diat<\/td><td>Zone de prix actuelle, point d\u2019\u00e9quilibre court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,40 $<\/td><td>Premier support<\/td><td>Zone r\u00e9cente de consolidation (phase de stabilisation)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,25 $<\/td><td>Support cl\u00e9<\/td><td>Creux de s\u00e9ance et zone de retournement intrajournalier<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,20 $<\/td><td>Support inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><td>Une cassure pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 une baisse plus marqu\u00e9e<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La zone <strong>108,00 $ \u00e0 108,02 $<\/strong> correspond au sommet de la s\u00e9ance et \u00e0 une r\u00e9sistance psychologique. Un passage au-dessus de <strong>107,60 $<\/strong> pourrait renforcer l\u2019\u00e9lan haussier \u00e0 court terme. Le prix gravite autour de <strong>107,50 $<\/strong>, un pivot o\u00f9 acheteurs et vendeurs se disputent le contr\u00f4le.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, un premier support se situe \u00e0 <strong>107,40 $<\/strong>, puis le support cl\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>107,25 $<\/strong> (creux de s\u00e9ance). Une cassure nette sous ce niveau, puis sous <strong>107,20 $<\/strong>, augmenterait le risque de recul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abf4e2782c87.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Mouvement possible<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>Le UKOUSD tient au-dessus de 107,40 $ et franchit 107,60 $<\/td><td>Pourrait viser 107,80 $ puis 108,00 $\u2013108,02 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>Le UKOUSD passe sous 107,40 $<\/td><td>Pourrait remettre 107,25 $ au centre de l\u2019attention<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier plus marqu\u00e9<\/td><td>Cassure claire sous 107,25 $<\/td><td>Pourrait ouvrir 107,20 $ et plus bas<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sc\u00e9nario haussier : le march\u00e9 doit rester au-dessus de <strong>107,40 $<\/strong>, puis franchir <strong>107,60 $<\/strong>. Les acheteurs pourraient alors pousser vers <strong>107,80 $<\/strong> et la zone <strong>108,00 $\u2013108,02 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sc\u00e9nario baissier : un passage sous <strong>107,40 $<\/strong> indiquerait que la zone de consolidation ne tient plus, ce qui pourrait ramener <strong>107,25 $<\/strong> (creux de s\u00e9ance) en ligne de mire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avis de non-responsabilit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019\u00e9valuation de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Il ne s\u2019agit pas de conseils financiers ni d\u2019une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Faites vos propres analyses et g\u00e9rez votre risque.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision UKOUSD : et maintenant?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La prochaine direction d\u00e9pendra surtout des manchettes g\u00e9opolitiques. Un signe d\u2019escalade ou une perturbation des flux p\u00e9troliers au Moyen-Orient pourrait faire monter les prix rapidement. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une normalisation des exportations saoudiennes via Yanbu, ou une d\u00e9tente, pourrait freiner la hausse et d\u00e9clencher des prises de profits (ventes pour s\u00e9curiser des gains).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les traders devraient aussi surveiller la confirmation de la suspension chinoise des exportations de carburants en octobre, ce qui soutiendrait les produits raffin\u00e9s et pourrait provoquer des mouvements brusques. D\u2019autres \u00e9l\u00e9ments peuvent aussi influencer le prix : progr\u00e8s diplomatiques ou changements de sanctions touchant l\u2019Iran et la Russie, variations des co\u00fbts d\u2019assurance des p\u00e9troliers et du fret (co\u00fbt du transport), et annonces \u00e9conomiques majeures. C\u00f4t\u00e9 macro\u00e9conomie, les mouvements du dollar am\u00e9ricain et l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque sur les march\u00e9s boursiers peuvent r\u00e9duire ou amplifier la prime g\u00e9opolitique, donc la zone <strong>107,40 $ \u00e0 107,60 $<\/strong> peut changer rapidement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">N\u00e9gocier le UKOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le UKOUSD reste actif quand le risque g\u00e9opolitique, les perturbations maritimes, les enjeux d\u2019offre et les attentes de demande mondiale bougent en m\u00eame temps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, les traders peuvent acc\u00e9der \u00e0 des <strong>CFD<\/strong> (contrats sur la diff\u00e9rence : produit qui suit le prix sans poss\u00e9der l\u2019actif) sur le UKOUSD, ainsi que sur le p\u00e9trole WTI, l\u2019or, le forex (march\u00e9 des devises), les indices, les actions, les FNB\/ETF (fonds n\u00e9goci\u00e9s en Bourse) et d\u2019autres march\u00e9s mondiaux de CFD, sur une seule plateforme. Cela aide \u00e0 suivre le contexte macro, du p\u00e9trole et des attentes d\u2019inflation jusqu\u2019au dollar am\u00e9ricain et au sentiment de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Utilisez les outils graphiques de VT Markets pour suivre les supports, r\u00e9sistances, moyennes mobiles et les <strong>cassures<\/strong> (prix qui d\u00e9passe un niveau cl\u00e9) \u00e0 mesure que le prochain sc\u00e9nario UKOUSD se pr\u00e9cise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le UKOUSD se n\u00e9gocie-t-il au-dessus de 107 $?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole sont soutenus par les risques g\u00e9opolitiques au Moyen-Orient et la possibilit\u00e9 de perturbations de l\u2019approvisionnement r\u00e9gional et des routes maritimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quel est le niveau de r\u00e9sistance cl\u00e9 pour le UKOUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe autour de <strong>107,60 $<\/strong>. Au-dessus, le march\u00e9 surveille souvent <strong>107,80 $<\/strong> et le sommet de s\u00e9ance pr\u00e8s de <strong>108,02 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quel est le niveau de support cl\u00e9 pour le UKOUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le premier support se situe autour de <strong>107,40 $<\/strong>, suivi du creux de s\u00e9ance pr\u00e8s de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>. Une cassure sous ces niveaux affaiblirait le rebond actuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le UKOUSD est-il haussier ou baissier?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 tr\u00e8s court terme, le biais est <strong>neutre \u00e0 l\u00e9g\u00e8rement haussier<\/strong> apr\u00e8s le rebond depuis 107,25 $ et le retour au-dessus de la moyenne mobile 9 p\u00e9riodes. Un franchissement de 107,60 $ renforcerait le signal haussier, tandis qu\u2019un passage sous 107,25 $ favoriserait un sc\u00e9nario baissier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait faire bouger le p\u00e9trole ensuite?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les d\u00e9veloppements au Moyen-Orient, le passage des p\u00e9troliers dans le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, les changements de production et d\u2019exportations r\u00e9gionales, l\u2019offre de carburants raffin\u00e9s, les attentes de demande mondiale et les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inventaires (stocks) resteront des facteurs cl\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Attention aux secousses: le Brent (UKOUSD) oscille pr\u00e8s de 107,51 $ sur fond de prime g\u00e9opolitique au Moyen-Orient. Exportations saoudiennes limitent la hausse, suspension chinoise menace l\u2019offre raffin\u00e9e.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69251,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Attention aux secousses: le Brent (UKOUSD) oscille pr\u00e8s de 107,51 $ sur fond de prime g\u00e9opolitique au Moyen-Orient. 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