{"id":69237,"date":"2026-10-01T06:06:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T06:06:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/uncategorized\/dow-jones-dj30-key-levels-to-watch-before-us-non-farm-payrolls\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T06:06:39","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T06:06:39","slug":"dow-jones-dj30-key-levels-to-watch-before-us-non-farm-payrolls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/analysis\/dow-jones-dj30-key-levels-to-watch-before-us-non-farm-payrolls\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Jones (DJ30) : niveaux cl\u00e9s \u00e0 surveiller avant la publication des cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois non agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abde21112e3d.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le DJ30 se n\u00e9gocie autour de <strong>51&nbsp;076<\/strong>, en hausse d\u2019environ <strong>0,13&nbsp;%<\/strong> sur la s\u00e9ance illustr\u00e9e.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019indice a rebondi depuis un creux intrajournalier \u00e0 <strong>51&nbsp;023,45<\/strong> et \u00e9volue pr\u00e8s du haut de sa fourchette r\u00e9cente.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe vers <strong>51&nbsp;080\u201351&nbsp;160<\/strong>, avec un sommet de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 <strong>51&nbsp;159,45<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le rapport am\u00e9ricain sur l\u2019emploi <strong>NFP<\/strong> de vendredi (cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois hors agriculture; pr\u00e9vision&nbsp;: ~90&nbsp;k vs 162&nbsp;k pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, taux de ch\u00f4mage attendu \u00e0 4,1&nbsp;%) est le prochain d\u00e9clencheur majeur pour le DJ30.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement du march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le DJ30 s\u2019est repris \u00e0 court terme apr\u00e8s une phase de ventes (pression vendeuse).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019indice a ouvert vers <strong>51&nbsp;047,50<\/strong>, puis a d\u2019abord \u00e9volu\u00e9 \u00e0 plat entre <strong>51&nbsp;040<\/strong> et <strong>51&nbsp;055<\/strong>. La demande s\u2019est ensuite acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e, propulsant l\u2019indice nettement au-dessus de <strong>51&nbsp;070<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Par la suite, les cours ont consolid\u00e9 (se sont stabilis\u00e9s) entre <strong>51&nbsp;065<\/strong> et <strong>51&nbsp;080<\/strong>, signe que les acheteurs d\u00e9fendent encore une bonne partie du rebond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les traders surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le DJ30 reste tr\u00e8s suivi, car le march\u00e9 met en balance la vigueur de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine avec les perspectives de la <strong>Fed<\/strong> (R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, la banque centrale des \u00c9tats-Unis) et les <strong>rendements des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor<\/strong> (taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat exig\u00e9s par les investisseurs). Une croissance solide peut maintenir les rendements \u00e0 long terme \u00e9lev\u00e9s, ce qui peut peser sur le Dow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les \u00e9conomistes s\u2019attendent \u00e0 environ <strong>90&nbsp;000<\/strong> nouveaux emplois (contre <strong>162&nbsp;000<\/strong> pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment), avec un taux de ch\u00f4mage pr\u00e9vu \u00e0 <strong>4,1&nbsp;%<\/strong>. Le rapport <strong>ADP<\/strong> (estimation priv\u00e9e des embauches dans le secteur priv\u00e9) a montr\u00e9 <strong>90&nbsp;000<\/strong> emplois mercredi, contre environ <strong>68&nbsp;000<\/strong> attendu, ce qui augmente le risque d\u2019une surprise haussi\u00e8re. Les probabilit\u00e9s d\u2019une <strong>hausse de taux<\/strong> de la Fed en octobre ont recul\u00e9 autour de <strong>39&nbsp;%<\/strong> apr\u00e8s un <strong>PCE de base<\/strong> (indice d\u2019inflation suivi par la Fed, hors \u00e9l\u00e9ments volatils comme l\u2019\u00e9nergie et l\u2019alimentation) plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9; un chiffre d\u2019emploi fort pourrait faire remonter ces probabilit\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019attention se tourne vers le <strong>rapport NFP<\/strong> de vendredi. Un march\u00e9 du travail robuste pourrait renforcer l\u2019id\u00e9e de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9lev\u00e9s plus longtemps, tandis que des donn\u00e9es d\u2019emploi plus faibles pourraient faire baisser les rendements et soutenir les actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques \u00e0 surveiller<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/VANTAGE-DJ30\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">DJ30 chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"VANTAGE:DJ30\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Importance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51&nbsp;160<\/td><td>Sommet de s\u00e9ance et r\u00e9sistance majeure \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51&nbsp;080<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51&nbsp;070<\/td><td>Zone charni\u00e8re \u00e0 court terme (niveau pivot)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51&nbsp;050<\/td><td>Premier support intrajournalier<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51&nbsp;023<\/td><td>Creux de s\u00e9ance et support plus solide \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51&nbsp;000<\/td><td>Support psychologique cl\u00e9 (niveau rond)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>50&nbsp;900<\/td><td>Zone de repli secondaire<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>50&nbsp;000<\/td><td>Support psychologique majeur \u00e0 plus long horizon<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le DJ30 teste la zone <strong>51&nbsp;070\u201351&nbsp;080<\/strong>. Un passage durable au-dessus pourrait ramener le sommet de s\u00e9ance vers <strong>51&nbsp;160<\/strong> au centre de l\u2019attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>51&nbsp;050<\/strong> est le premier niveau \u00e0 surveiller. Une cassure en dessous pourrait ouvrir la voie vers <strong>51&nbsp;023<\/strong>, puis vers le niveau rond <strong>51&nbsp;000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abde2126c78e.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveaux \u00e0 surveiller<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>Cassure durable au-dessus de 51&nbsp;080<\/td><td>51&nbsp;160, puis 51&nbsp;300<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poursuite haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>51&nbsp;000\u201351&nbsp;050 tient comme support<\/td><td>Rebond vers 51&nbsp;080\u201351&nbsp;160<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>Cassure sous 51&nbsp;050<\/td><td>51&nbsp;023, puis 51&nbsp;000<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poursuite baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Cassure durable sous 51&nbsp;000<\/td><td>50&nbsp;900 et possiblement plus bas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier \u00e9largi<\/td><td>D\u00e9t\u00e9rioration marqu\u00e9e sous les supports interm\u00e9diaires<\/td><td>50&nbsp;000<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans un sc\u00e9nario haussier, une cassure durable au-dessus de <strong>51&nbsp;080<\/strong> renforcerait le rebond intrajournalier et pourrait permettre un retest du sommet pr\u00e8s de <strong>51&nbsp;160<\/strong>. Si cette r\u00e9sistance c\u00e8de, <strong>51&nbsp;300<\/strong> devient la prochaine zone \u00e0 surveiller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans un sc\u00e9nario baissier, il faudrait passer sous <strong>51&nbsp;050<\/strong>. Une rupture sous le creux de s\u00e9ance vers <strong>51&nbsp;023<\/strong> mettrait <strong>51&nbsp;000<\/strong> en jeu, puis <strong>50&nbsp;900<\/strong>. Il faudrait une baisse beaucoup plus prononc\u00e9e avant que le niveau rond <strong>50&nbsp;000<\/strong> devienne la cible principale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avis de non-responsabilit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et les sc\u00e9narios ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019analyse de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil financier ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Les traders devraient faire leur propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision DJ30&nbsp;: et maintenant?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La prochaine direction du DJ30 d\u00e9pend surtout des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques am\u00e9ricaines. Les march\u00e9s se concentrent sur le rapport <strong>NFP<\/strong> de vendredi (emplois cr\u00e9\u00e9s hors agriculture).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">N\u00e9gociez le DJ30 avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">G\u00e9rez votre exposition au march\u00e9 (le niveau de risque li\u00e9 \u00e0 vos positions) avec des plateformes de n\u00e9gociation avanc\u00e9es, des conditions concurrentielles et des options d\u2019effet de levier (emprunter pour augmenter la taille d\u2019une position) flexibles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, les traders peuvent acc\u00e9der aux <strong>CFD<\/strong> (contrats sur diff\u00e9rence, un produit d\u00e9riv\u00e9 qui suit le prix sans poss\u00e9der l\u2019actif) sur le Dow Jones, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 des indices mondiaux, au <strong>forex<\/strong> (march\u00e9 des devises), aux mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, aux actions, aux FNB\/ETF (fonds n\u00e9goci\u00e9s en bourse) et \u00e0 d\u2019autres march\u00e9s de CFD, sur une seule plateforme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier des <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CFD sur indices<\/a> avec VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c0 quel niveau le DJ30 se n\u00e9gocie-t-il?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le graphique montre le DJ30 autour de <strong>51&nbsp;076<\/strong>, soit environ <strong>0,13&nbsp;%<\/strong> de plus sur la s\u00e9ance affich\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le DJ30 pourrait-il reculer vers 50&nbsp;000?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui, mais plusieurs supports sont plus proches. Le DJ30 devrait d\u2019abord casser nettement sous <strong>51&nbsp;000<\/strong> et sous des supports interm\u00e9diaires avant que <strong>50&nbsp;000<\/strong> devienne le principal niveau vis\u00e9 \u00e0 la baisse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le NFP est-il important pour le DJ30?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NFP peut influencer les attentes sur la politique de la <strong>Fed<\/strong> (banque centrale am\u00e9ricaine), les <strong>rendements des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor<\/strong> (taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat) et les perspectives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine. Des chiffres d\u2019emploi solides peuvent maintenir les rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s, tandis que des chiffres faibles peuvent accro\u00eetre les attentes d\u2019une politique mon\u00e9taire plus souple (taux plus bas).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui soutiendrait une nouvelle hausse du DJ30?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un mouvement durable au-dessus de <strong>51&nbsp;080\u201351&nbsp;160<\/strong>, combin\u00e9 \u00e0 des rendements du Tr\u00e9sor plus bas ou \u00e0 des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques am\u00e9ricaines plus faibles, pourrait renforcer le sc\u00e9nario haussier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait faire baisser le DJ30?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un NFP solide, des rendements du Tr\u00e9sor en hausse ou une cassure durable sous <strong>51&nbsp;000<\/strong> pourraient accentuer la pression \u00e0 la baisse.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le DJ30 remonte \u00e0 51 076 (+0,13 %) et teste une r\u00e9sistance cl\u00e9 \u00e0 51 080\u201351 160. Tout se joue vendredi: le NFP am\u00e9ricain pourrait faire bouger rendements et attentes sur la Fed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69236,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le DJ30 remonte \u00e0 51 076 (+0,13 %) et teste une r\u00e9sistance cl\u00e9 \u00e0 51 080\u201351 160. 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