{"id":68610,"date":"2026-09-21T02:23:23","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T02:23:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/uncategorized\/the-fed-hiked-what-warshs-next-move-means-for-gold\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T02:23:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T02:23:23","slug":"the-fed-hiked-what-warshs-next-move-means-for-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/learn\/the-fed-hiked-what-warshs-next-move-means-for-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"La Fed a relev\u00e9 ses taux : ce que la prochaine d\u00e9cision de Warsh signifie pour l\u2019or"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/codeNTQ2YzNkYzFmNGUzYTEzZmU1YzczMDAwN2U5OWRlZDJfTWtvekVuNFNQM3NoaFZlVHpHQmNrdk5zYlZGN3lya2ZfVG9rZW46S3k2SGJBeTJRb0p1UVp4eWJCUGxYTE15Z1NmXzE3ODk2MjkyMzc6MTc4OTYzMjgzN19WNAampadd_watermarktrueampscene_typeCCM.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (la \u00ab Fed \u00bb, la banque centrale am\u00e9ricaine) a relev\u00e9 de 25 points de base (pb, soit 0,25 point de pourcentage) sa fourchette cible du taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux (le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 tr\u00e8s court terme aux \u00c9tats-Unis) \u00e0 <strong>3,75 %\u20134,00 %<\/strong> lors de la r\u00e9union du FOMC (le comit\u00e9 de la Fed qui d\u00e9cide des taux) des 15 et 16 septembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La d\u00e9cision a \u00e9t\u00e9 unanime : les 12 membres votants ont appuy\u00e9 la hausse. Il s\u2019agit de la premi\u00e8re hausse de taux sous le pr\u00e9sident de la Fed Kevin Warsh et de la premi\u00e8re augmentation depuis plus de trois ans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le march\u00e9 s\u2019y attendait largement : la surprise venait surtout des nouvelles projections \u00e9conomiques de la Fed et des commentaires de Warsh sur l\u2019inflation et la politique mon\u00e9taire (les d\u00e9cisions sur les taux et la liquidit\u00e9 pour influencer l\u2019\u00e9conomie).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le message est clair : la Fed ne voit pas la hausse de septembre comme un simple ajustement ponctuel. Les d\u00e9cideurs restent pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par l\u2019inflation et laissent la porte ouverte \u00e0 d\u2019autres hausses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette nuance compte pour les march\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019approche des derniers mois de 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi la Fed a-t-elle relev\u00e9 les taux?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019inflation reste au-dessus de l\u2019objectif de 2 % de la Fed, et les donn\u00e9es r\u00e9centes montrent que la hausse des prix ne ralentit pas aussi vite que souhait\u00e9. En ao\u00fbt, l\u2019IPC global (indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation, un indicateur du co\u00fbt de la vie) s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 <strong>3,4 % sur 12 mois<\/strong>, tandis que l\u2019IPC de base (inflation \u00ab sous-jacente \u00bb, qui exclut surtout l\u2019\u00e9nergie et les aliments pour mieux voir la tendance) a progress\u00e9 de <strong>0,3 % sur un mois<\/strong>. Les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie ajoutent aussi de l\u2019incertitude : le p\u00e9trole demeure au-dessus de 100 $ US le baril en raison de tensions g\u00e9opolitiques et de perturbations de l\u2019approvisionnement mondial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">President Trump leveled his most pointed \u2014 though still indirect \u2014 criticism yet at his hand-picked Federal Reserve chief, fuming on social media over the central bank&#39;s move to raise interest rates in a bid to calm persistent inflation <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rIkkYYg2fL\">https:\/\/t.co\/rIkkYYg2fL<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2100405645602099521?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 17, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les projections de la Fed refl\u00e8tent ces inqui\u00e9tudes : la pr\u00e9vision m\u00e9diane de l\u2019inflation PCE (indice des prix des d\u00e9penses de consommation, la mesure d\u2019inflation privil\u00e9gi\u00e9e par la Fed) pour <strong>2026 a \u00e9t\u00e9 relev\u00e9e \u00e0 3,7 % contre 3,6 % en juin<\/strong>, et l\u2019inflation PCE de base (PCE \u00ab sous-jacent \u00bb, qui retire surtout l\u2019\u00e9nergie et les aliments) est projet\u00e9e \u00e0 3,4 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En parall\u00e8le, les perspectives \u00e9conomiques demeurent assez solides. La Fed a relev\u00e9 sa projection m\u00e9diane de croissance du PIB (produit int\u00e9rieur brut, la taille de l\u2019\u00e9conomie) pour <strong>2026 \u00e0 2,3 % contre 2,2 %<\/strong>, tout en abaissant sa pr\u00e9vision de ch\u00f4mage \u00e0 <strong>4,1 % contre 4,3 %<\/strong>. Cela donne plus de marge aux d\u00e9cideurs pour se concentrer sur l\u2019inflation sans r\u00e9agir \u00e0 une forte d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration du march\u00e9 du travail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warsh a martel\u00e9 ce point en conf\u00e9rence de presse : l\u2019inflation reste trop \u00e9lev\u00e9e et la tendance de fond n\u2019a pas vraiment montr\u00e9 d\u2019am\u00e9lioration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le vrai signal : une autre hausse reste possible<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment cl\u00e9 de la r\u00e9union de septembre n\u2019est peut-\u00eatre pas la hausse de 25 pb, mais plut\u00f4t la trajectoire envisag\u00e9e par la Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le SEP (Summary of Economic Projections, le tableau des pr\u00e9visions des membres de la Fed) indique un <strong>taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux m\u00e9dian de 4,1 % \u00e0 la fin de 2026<\/strong>, contre 3,8 % dans les projections de juin. Avec la fourchette actuelle \u00e0 <strong>3,75 %\u20134,00 %<\/strong>, cette projection est compatible avec une autre hausse de 25 pb d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said in a press conference on Wednesday the decision to raise rates was to return inflation to the reserve&#39;s 2% target in a \u201ctimelier\u201d way <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/S2JJhGIOSM\">https:\/\/t.co\/S2JJhGIOSM<\/a>\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rWJv2ASrHA\">pic.twitter.com\/rWJv2ASrHA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2100314766044434633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 16, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cela dit, les pr\u00e9visions individuelles montrent un d\u00e9saccord. Douze participants voient un taux de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e autour de <strong>4,125 %<\/strong>, quatre \u00e0 <strong>4,375 %<\/strong> et deux \u00e0 <strong>3,875 %<\/strong>. La r\u00e9union de d\u00e9cembre reste donc un rendez-vous important pour les march\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La question centrale : l\u2019inflation restera-t-elle assez forte pour justifier un autre resserrement (une politique mon\u00e9taire plus restrictive, donc des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prochaines donn\u00e9es sur <strong>l\u2019IPC, le PCE, le march\u00e9 du travail et les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie<\/strong> pourraient donc peser fortement sur les attentes de taux dans les prochains mois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Que nous dit l\u2019orientation de Warsh?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apr\u00e8s la r\u00e9union, Warsh a r\u00e9affirm\u00e9 que la Fed met l\u2019accent sur la stabilit\u00e9 des prix : l\u2019inflation reste l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment d\u00e9terminant pour savoir \u00e0 quel point la politique mon\u00e9taire doit rester restrictive (assez serr\u00e9e pour freiner la demande).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le communiqu\u00e9 du FOMC indique que l\u2019inflation demeure \u00e9lev\u00e9e et que la mesure annonc\u00e9e devrait aider \u00e0 revenir plus rapidement vers l\u2019objectif de 2 %. Autrement dit, la Fed juge l\u2019inflation assez tenace pour maintenir une pression sur la demande au moyen de taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warsh a aussi rejet\u00e9 l\u2019id\u00e9e que la d\u00e9cision r\u00e9pondait simplement aux pressions des march\u00e9s financiers. Il a mis l\u2019accent sur les tendances \u00e9conomiques de fond et a r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9 l\u2019engagement de la banque centrale \u00e0 r\u00e9tablir la stabilit\u00e9 des prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh says the central bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to address inflation, which remains above its 2% target, and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the coming months <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fSMuV7MWSI\">https:\/\/t.co\/fSMuV7MWSI<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HI42nDCDg2\">pic.twitter.com\/HI42nDCDg2<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2100332647813722296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 16, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour les march\u00e9s, le cadre est simple. Si l\u2019inflation reste \u00ab collante \u00bb (elle baisse peu ou tr\u00e8s lentement), une autre hausse demeure possible, surtout si la croissance et l\u2019emploi tiennent le coup. Si l\u2019inflation ralentit nettement, la Fed pourrait plut\u00f4t faire une pause et mesurer l\u2019effet des hausses pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9union de septembre d\u00e9place donc l\u2019attention vers les donn\u00e9es d\u2019ici d\u00e9cembre, plut\u00f4t que d\u2019annoncer la fin du cycle de resserrement. Les march\u00e9s compareront de plus en plus chaque donn\u00e9e importante sur l\u2019inflation et l\u2019emploi aux nouvelles projections de la Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce que cela signifie pour le dollar am\u00e9ricain?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9action imm\u00e9diate a refl\u00e9t\u00e9 un ton plus \u00ab faucon \u00bb (hawkish, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire plus enclin \u00e0 monter les taux pour combattre l\u2019inflation). La combinaison de la hausse de 25 pb, de projections d\u2019inflation \u00e9lev\u00e9es et de la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une autre hausse a soutenu le dollar am\u00e9ricain et fait monter les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor (les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat exig\u00e9s par les investisseurs sur la dette du gouvernement am\u00e9ricain). Apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9cision, les actions ont recul\u00e9, tandis que le rendement du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 deux ans a augment\u00e9, car le march\u00e9 a r\u00e9\u00e9valu\u00e9 la trajectoire des taux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour le dollar, le prochain moteur sera la question suivante : les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques continuent-elles de justifier la trajectoire projet\u00e9e par la Fed? Une inflation plus forte ou une activit\u00e9 plus robuste pourrait renforcer l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une autre hausse. Des donn\u00e9es plus faibles pourraient r\u00e9duire le besoin per\u00e7u de resserrement suppl\u00e9mentaire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US stocks whipsawed lower after the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate for the first time in over three years to fight stubbornly high inflation stemming from soaring crude oil prices during the US-Israeli war on Iran. Alex Cohen has more <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ese9l5sSMc\">https:\/\/t.co\/Ese9l5sSMc<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xFcJJfWyh7\">pic.twitter.com\/xFcJJfWyh7<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2100381721112027371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 17, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une hausse persistante de l\u2019inflation ou des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques au-dessus des attentes pourrait donc consolider l\u2019anticipation d\u2019une autre hausse et appuyer le dollar. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une inflation plus douce ou une activit\u00e9 plus faible pourrait faire baisser les attentes de resserrement, surtout si la Fed met davantage l\u2019accent sur l\u2019impact des hausses pass\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le <strong>DXY (US Dollar Index, l\u2019indice qui mesure la force du dollar face \u00e0 un panier de grandes devises) et les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor<\/strong>, surtout sur le court terme (le \u00ab d\u00e9but \u00bb de la courbe des taux, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire les \u00e9ch\u00e9ances proches), restent des signaux utiles pour confirmer ce changement d\u2019anticipations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce que cela signifie pour l\u2019or?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019or a subi une pression imm\u00e9diate apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9cision, alors que les investisseurs ont revu leurs attentes sur les taux, le dollar et les rendements. L\u2019or au comptant (spot, prix pour livraison imm\u00e9diate) a recul\u00e9 de plus de <strong>1 %<\/strong> apr\u00e8s la hausse de taux, touchant bri\u00e8vement environ <strong>4 240 $ US l\u2019once<\/strong> apr\u00e8s avoir d\u00e9pass\u00e9 4 365 $ US plus t\u00f4t en s\u00e9ance. Le mouvement s\u2019est produit avec un dollar plus fort et l\u2019id\u00e9e que la Fed pourrait encore relever les taux plus tard cette ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold held a decline after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years and signaled another hike was likely before year-end <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EayWJo2lS7\">https:\/\/t.co\/EayWJo2lS7<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2100415734874599676?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 17, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9action souligne le lien entre politique mon\u00e9taire, rendements et or. Des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s augmentent le \u00ab co\u00fbt d\u2019opportunit\u00e9 \u00bb (ce \u00e0 quoi on renonce) de d\u00e9tenir un actif qui ne verse pas d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, comme l\u2019or. Un dollar plus fort rend aussi l\u2019or plus cher pour les acheteurs \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tranger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mais la relation n\u2019est pas automatique. L\u2019or peut \u00eatre soutenu par la demande de valeur refuge (achat pour se prot\u00e9ger en p\u00e9riode d\u2019incertitude), les risques g\u00e9opolitiques et les craintes d\u2019inflation. Un environnement de taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s ne veut donc pas dire forc\u00e9ment une baisse durable de l\u2019or.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un cadre utile pour les investisseurs :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Politique de la Fed \u2192 rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor \u2192 USD \u2192 or<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si la Fed continue d\u2019indiquer des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s et que les rendements et le dollar montent, l\u2019ensemble peut cr\u00e9er davantage de vent de face pour l\u2019or. Si les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques faiblissent et que les attentes de taux se calment, ces pressions pourraient s\u2019inverser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9union du FOMC de septembre a clarifi\u00e9 la premi\u00e8re d\u00e9cision de taux sous Kevin Warsh. La Fed a relev\u00e9 les taux de <strong>25 points de base \u00e0 3,75 %\u20134,00 %<\/strong>, et ses projections r\u00e9vis\u00e9es indiquent un taux m\u00e9dian de fin 2026 \u00e0 <strong>4,1 %<\/strong> ainsi que des attentes d\u2019inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es pour 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le message n\u2019est pas qu\u2019une nouvelle hausse est certaine. La Fed garde plut\u00f4t la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un resserrement additionnel si l\u2019inflation reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e et si l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique demeure solide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Surprise \u00e0 la Fed : hausse de 25 pb \u00e0 3,75 %-4,00 % et ton faucon de Warsh. Inflation tenace, p\u00e9trole cher. Une autre hausse d\u2019ici d\u00e9cembre plane, dopant USD et rendements, pesant sur l\u2019or.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":68609,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-learn"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Surprise \u00e0 la Fed : hausse de 25 pb \u00e0 3,75 %-4,00 % et ton faucon de Warsh. Inflation tenace, p\u00e9trole cher. 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