{"id":68600,"date":"2026-09-21T02:15:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T02:15:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/uncategorized\/oil-surges-above-105-after-new-strikes-on-saudi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-21T02:15:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T02:15:38","slug":"oil-surges-above-105-after-new-strikes-on-saudi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/analysis\/oil-surges-above-105-after-new-strikes-on-saudi\/","title":{"rendered":"Le p\u00e9trole bondit au-dessus de 105 $ apr\u00e8s de nouvelles frappes contre l\u2019Arabie saoudite"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Oil8-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-68230\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le p\u00e9trole Brent a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 105 $ US, apr\u00e8s de nouvelles attaques contre l\u2019Arabie saoudite et des risques accrus pour le transport maritime pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, ce qui ravive les craintes sur l\u2019offre (la quantit\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole disponible sur le march\u00e9).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019ol\u00e9oduc Est-Ouest de l\u2019Arabie saoudite a \u00e9t\u00e9 perturb\u00e9 apr\u00e8s des attaques de drones (appareils volants sans pilote). Si l\u2019arr\u00eat dure, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 environ 4 % de l\u2019approvisionnement mondial en p\u00e9trole pourrait \u00eatre touch\u00e9.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz reste un point critique : l\u2019activit\u00e9 de navigation est sous la normale, car les inqui\u00e9tudes de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 persistent.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La hausse du p\u00e9trole peut faire monter les co\u00fbts de transport et de production, et ultimement les prix pay\u00e9s par les consommateurs, ce qui alimente les craintes d\u2019une inflation (hausse g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e des prix) durable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La hausse de l\u2019\u00e9nergie complique aussi les perspectives de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed, la banque centrale des \u00c9tats-Unis) : les march\u00e9s accordent d\u00e9j\u00e0 une forte probabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 une nouvelle hausse des taux.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement du march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les contrats \u00e0 terme (futures) sur le Brent (UKOUSD) ont grimp\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>108,23 $ US le baril<\/strong> lundi, apr\u00e8s de nouvelles frappes des Houthis en Arabie saoudite et d\u2019autres incidents autour du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz. (Un contrat \u00e0 terme est une entente pour acheter ou vendre plus tard, \u00e0 un prix fix\u00e9 aujourd\u2019hui.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UKOUSD est rest\u00e9 pr\u00e8s de <strong>108,00<\/strong> avant de reculer nettement vers <strong>107,30<\/strong>. Les acheteurs sont ensuite revenus, ramenant UKOUSD vers <strong>107,70<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les investisseurs r\u00e9agissent \u00e0 des nouvelles g\u00e9opolitiques qui changent vite et cherchent des indices pour la suite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les investisseurs surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La pression se concentre sur <strong>l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc Est-Ouest<\/strong> de l\u2019Arabie saoudite, un trajet cl\u00e9 qui transporte le brut des zones de production \u00e0 l\u2019est vers le port de Yanbu, sur la mer Rouge. (Un ol\u00e9oduc est un pipeline qui transporte le p\u00e9trole.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil prices rise after Saudi Arabia shut down critical pipeline that bypasses Strait of Hormuz <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Guu5xUBKZ7\">https:\/\/t.co\/Guu5xUBKZ7<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC (@CNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBC\/status\/2099260000656920628?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 13, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019ol\u00e9oduc a \u00e9t\u00e9 arr\u00eat\u00e9 apr\u00e8s des attaques de drones et transporte normalement environ <strong>4 millions de barils par jour<\/strong>. Si la perturbation se prolonge, cela \u00e9quivaudrait \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de <strong>4 % de la consommation mondiale de p\u00e9trole<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette interruption r\u00e9duit l\u2019offre et peut accentuer les pressions sur l\u2019inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un p\u00e9trole plus cher augmente graduellement les co\u00fbts de carburant, de transport et de fabrication. Les entreprises peuvent absorber une partie de la hausse, mais si elle dure, elle se refl\u00e8te souvent dans les prix aux consommateurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c7a complique aussi le travail de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Inflation heated up in August, raising the chance of a Fed rate hike<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4oEjOWF1YX\">https:\/\/t.co\/4oEjOWF1YX<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Q1FzrfRd1j\">pic.twitter.com\/Q1FzrfRd1j<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNN (@CNN) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNN\/status\/2098393905603473480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 11, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine est d\u00e9j\u00e0 au-dessus de sa <strong>cible de 2 %<\/strong>. Des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s peuvent rendre l\u2019inflation plus tenace. Des experts s\u2019attendent maintenant \u00e0 une <strong>hausse de 25 points de base<\/strong> du taux directeur de la Fed en septembre (un point de base = 0,01 %, donc 25 pb = 0,25 %), et les march\u00e9s ont r\u00e9cemment \u00e9valu\u00e9 la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une hausse \u00e0 environ <strong>87 %<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques \u00e0 surveiller<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/UKOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">UKOIL chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\"> by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:UKOIL\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": \"100%\",\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Niveau<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Importance (analyse technique)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>109,13<\/td><td>Sommet de la s\u00e9ance et r\u00e9sistance importante \u00e0 court terme (zone o\u00f9 le prix a souvent du mal \u00e0 monter)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>108,2<\/td><td>Zone de r\u00e9sistance intrajournali\u00e8re sup\u00e9rieure (intrajournalier = dans la m\u00eame journ\u00e9e)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>108<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance psychologique (niveau \u00ab rond \u00bb) et ancienne zone de stabilisation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,8<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,6<\/td><td>Point pivot \u00e0 court terme pr\u00e8s de la moyenne mobile 9 p\u00e9riodes (moyenne du prix des 9 derni\u00e8res p\u00e9riodes, pour lisser les mouvements)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,4<\/td><td>Premier support intrajournalier (zone o\u00f9 le prix a tendance \u00e0 rebondir)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,2<\/td><td>Support important pr\u00e8s de la zone des creux de s\u00e9ance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>105,00 $<\/td><td>Support plus large apr\u00e8s la r\u00e9cente cassure (breakout = sortie au-dessus d\u2019une zone de prix)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>100,00 $<\/td><td>Niveau psychologique majeur et rep\u00e8re de tendance \u00e0 moyen terme<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La zone de <strong>107,60<\/strong> est le pivot intrajournalier. Le prix a souvent travers\u00e9 ce niveau, et la moyenne mobile 9 p\u00e9riodes s\u2019aplatit pr\u00e8s de l\u00e0 (signal d\u2019un rythme qui ralentit).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un passage au-dessus de <strong>107,80<\/strong> pourrait ramener <strong>108,00 \u00e0 108,20<\/strong> au centre de l\u2019attention. Ensuite, le march\u00e9 pourrait viser le sommet de s\u00e9ance pr\u00e8s de <strong>109,13<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, si le prix ne tient pas <strong>107,60<\/strong>, l\u2019attention pourrait revenir vers <strong>107,40<\/strong> puis <strong>107,20<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/codeYWZmZjgzYjAwNDFkNzVmOGVhNTQ2ZGQyMTM4YjkwNWRfT256dXU1TEJmNE11UE5veDlyaWwzQ0NLWFVXdXJSajhfVG9rZW46WnpaRmJScTRXb3h2Nmh4UFdNSWxMazdWZ2RkXzE3ODkzNzA1ODc6MTc4OTM3NDE4N19WNAampadd_watermarktrueampscene_typeCCM.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Sc\u00e9nario<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>D\u00e9clencheur<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Niveaux \u00e0 surveiller<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>UKOUSD reste au-dessus de 107,60 et franchit 107,80<\/td><td>108,00 \u2192 108,20 \u2192 109,13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>UKOUSD passe sous 107,60 et casse 107,40<\/td><td>107,20 \u2192 105,00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier (tendance plus large)<\/td><td>Le Brent reste solidement au-dessus de 100 $<\/td><td>La prime de risque li\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019offre pourrait rester \u00e9lev\u00e9e (prime = surplus de prix li\u00e9 aux risques)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier (tendance plus large)<\/td><td>Les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques diminuent et les routes d\u2019approvisionnement rouvrent<\/td><td>105 $ \u2192 100 $<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le sc\u00e9nario haussier se renforcerait si le prix tient au-dessus de <strong>107,60<\/strong> et d\u00e9passe <strong>107,80<\/strong>. Un mouvement durable au-dessus de <strong>108,00<\/strong> pourrait ouvrir la voie vers <strong>108,20<\/strong>, puis vers le sommet pr\u00e8s de <strong>109,13<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le sc\u00e9nario baissier commence si <strong>107,60<\/strong> c\u00e8de. Une cassure sous <strong>107,40<\/strong> pourrait mettre <strong>107,20<\/strong> sous pression. Un recul plus marqu\u00e9 ram\u00e8nerait l\u2019attention vers la zone de <strong>105 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avis de non-responsabilit\u00e9<\/em><br><em>Les niveaux de prix et les sc\u00e9narios ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019\u00e9valuation de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Il ne s\u2019agit pas de conseils financiers ni d\u2019une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Faites votre propre analyse et g\u00e9rez le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision UKOUSD : et maintenant?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 court terme, la tendance sur UKOUSD reste <strong>haussi\u00e8re<\/strong>, mais tr\u00e8s sensible aux nouvelles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le prix se maintient au-dessus de <strong>105 $<\/strong> malgr\u00e9 des reculs rapides dans la journ\u00e9e, tandis que les perturbations en Arabie saoudite et les risques sur les routes maritimes soutiennent le march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tant que le Brent reste nettement au-dessus de <strong>100 $<\/strong>, le march\u00e9 pourrait continuer d\u2019ajouter une prime li\u00e9e aux risques g\u00e9opolitiques et d\u2019approvisionnement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">N\u00e9gociez UKOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les march\u00e9s du p\u00e9trole peuvent bouger vite selon la g\u00e9opolitique, les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inventaire (stocks), l\u2019offre mondiale et les attentes sur la politique mon\u00e9taire (orientation des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, les investisseurs peuvent acc\u00e9der \u00e0 <strong>UKOUSD<\/strong> ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 plusieurs march\u00e9s : mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, devises, indices, actions et plus, via des plateformes de n\u00e9gociation prises en charge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier des <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CFD sur l\u2019\u00e9nergie<\/a> avec VT Markets. (Un CFD, ou \u00ab contrat sur la diff\u00e9rence \u00bb, est un produit qui permet de sp\u00e9culer sur la hausse ou la baisse d\u2019un prix sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019actif.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi n\u00e9gocier UKOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VT Markets donne acc\u00e8s \u00e0 UKOUSD avec des outils pour l\u2019analyse technique (lecture des graphiques) et l\u2019analyse fondamentale (facteurs \u00e9conomiques et d\u2019offre\/demande).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>FAQ<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le Brent a-t-il d\u00e9pass\u00e9 105 $?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le Brent a mont\u00e9 apr\u00e8s de nouvelles attaques en Arabie saoudite et des incidents sur des routes maritimes cl\u00e9s au Moyen-Orient, ce qui a raviv\u00e9 les craintes d\u2019interruptions d\u2019approvisionnement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc Est-Ouest est-il important?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il transporte environ <strong>4 millions de barils par jour<\/strong> vers la mer Rouge, ce qui permet d\u2019\u00e9viter le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz est-il important pour le p\u00e9trole?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz est une des routes de transport d\u2019\u00e9nergie les plus importantes au monde. Historiquement, environ <strong>20 % des exp\u00e9ditions mondiales de p\u00e9trole brut et de GNL<\/strong> (gaz naturel liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9, du gaz refroidi pour \u00eatre transport\u00e9 par navire) y transitaient. Une perturbation peut donc influencer rapidement l\u2019offre per\u00e7ue et les prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Des prix du p\u00e9trole plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s peuvent-ils influencer les d\u00e9cisions de la Fed?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui. Si la hausse du p\u00e9trole et de l\u2019essence dure, les co\u00fbts de transport et de production augmentent, ce qui peut alimenter l\u2019inflation. Comme l\u2019inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis est d\u00e9j\u00e0 au-dessus de la cible, une inflation de l\u2019\u00e9nergie persistante peut rendre plus difficile une baisse des taux. Les march\u00e9s estiment encore \u00e9lev\u00e9e la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une nouvelle hausse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les niveaux UKOUSD \u00e0 surveiller?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sur le graphique, <strong>107,60<\/strong> est le pivot imm\u00e9diat. Les r\u00e9sistances se trouvent pr\u00e8s de <strong>107,80, 108,00 et 108,20<\/strong>, puis au sommet de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 <strong>109,13<\/strong>. Les supports se situent pr\u00e8s de <strong>107,40 et 107,20<\/strong>. Plus largement, <strong>100 $ reste le grand niveau psychologique<\/strong> qui soutient le sc\u00e9nario haussier.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-ca\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Attention: le Brent flambe au-dessus de 105 $ US, dop\u00e9 par des attaques en Arabie saoudite et les risques \u00e0 Ormuz. 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