European markets firmed as policymakers pushed back against aggressive rate-hike pricing, even as the energy shock intensified. UK 10-year gilts led the rally, with tens 4bp lower at 5.40% after the Bank of England\u2019s Pill questioned the four 25bp increases priced over the next year, while US Treasuries held near extremes with the 10-year at 5.215% and the 2-year at 4.776%. Brent traded back above $106 after Saudi Aramco confirmed a Houthi strike on its Dhahran headquarters; in the Strait of Hormuz, 24 vessels were attacked in the two weeks through 11 October, with shipping flows estimated at 2.9M bpd that day versus a September peak of 15.5M bpd, and supertanker earnings reported at a record $805K per day on 9 October. European TTF gas hovered near \u20ac87\/MWh with storage below 74% versus a seasonal norm near 90%, as the IEA Governing Board prepared to meet on 15 October.<\/p>\n\n
ASML lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to \u20ac44B-45B and said even a 30% 2027 capacity expansion in low-NA EUV and DUV immersion will still leave demand unmet in 2027-28; Q3 EPS was \u20ac12.95 versus \u20ac11.14 expected on \u20ac11.66B revenue, with net income \u20ac4.96B and gross margin 57.5% as installed-base management rose to \u20ac3.29B and system sales to 113 from 86. In the US, credit stress in AI infrastructure resurfaced as CoreWeave unsecured spreads widened 130-150bp to about 1,000bp over Treasuries, with 2032 notes near 15% versus 9.625% at issue and $52B of debt and lease obligations at end-June. Anthropic prepared to meet institutions as bankers floated a $1.8-2tn valuation versus a $965bn May mark; its prospectus showed 2025 revenue of $4.6B, an operating loss above $8B, future obligations of about $518B (around 80% non-cancellable), and a $42B net loss including roughly $34B of financing charges, while 47% of revenue flowed via two cloud channels. In Europe, Christine Lagarde said there were no second-round effects yet and stressed national responsibility for budgets, as France\u2019s Assembly voted on Article 1 of the 2027 plan with a 5.4% of GDP deficit, while Germany\u2019s final September HICP was 3.3% and China\u2019s trade surplus widened to $133.5bn on exports up 36.3% and imports up 31%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n