Gold held modest gains but stayed below $4,350 in Asian trading as the US Dollar paused after reaching a two-week high. Markets remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve decision due later on Wednesday, with expectations centred on a 25 bps rate rise following the September 15\u201316 meeting. Attention is set to shift to updated projections, including the dot plot, and to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s press conference for guidance on the policy path, a key driver for near-term USD moves and direction in non-yielding gold.<\/p>\n
Oil-led inflation risks kept the tightening narrative in play after crude rose to its highest level since May 20, helped by concerns over Middle East supply disruption. A global bond sell-off also pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield above 5% for the first time since 2023, taking it to its highest since 2007. Saudi Arabia issued security alerts spanning areas including Mecca and Jeddah after Houthi attacks, while US Central Command said it redirected 103 commercial vessels under a blockade on Iranian maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Technically, gold showed resilience below its 50-day SMA, trading above the 50% July\u2013August retracement, with MACD negative and RSI just under 50; resistance sits near $4,413 and $4,520, while support is seen around $4,326, $4,280, $4,240, $4,116 and $3,959.<\/p>\n
We suggest derivative traders tread carefully today as the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision. Historically, gold faces heavy pressure when 10-year US Treasury yields climb above 5%, a milestone we have just reached once again. To manage this immediate risk, we recommend using long straddle option strategies to profit from sharp price moves regardless of which way the market breaks.<\/p>\n
Although rising yields and a strong dollar usually hurt gold, ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are providing a strong safety net. Data from past energy shocks shows that supply threats in the Strait of Hormuz can rapidly drive up both oil and gold prices. If gold manages to hold steady above the $4,326 level, we advise buying near-the-money call options to target a run toward the next resistance.<\/p>\n
Technically, gold’s upward momentum is slowing down as the Relative Strength Index drops just below the 50 line. A drop below the crucial 50-day Moving Average at $4,280 could trigger a deeper slide toward $4,240 or even $4,116. In this bearish scenario, we prefer buying put options or setting up bear put spreads to hedge existing long positions.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, any signs of a pause in rate hikes from the central bank could spark a fast rally back up to $4,413. We recommend that traders remain highly flexible, keeping position sizes small to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of sudden policy announcements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n