AUD\/USD is trading at 0.6993, maintaining a constructive bias while it holds above the 200-day SMA at 0.6901, but it has yet to secure a sustained break through 0.7000. Overhead resistance sits at the 55-day SMA of 0.7038 and the 100-day SMA of 0.7057, with a further barrier at 0.7079; beyond that, levels flagged include 0.7278, 0.7283 and 0.7661. Momentum readings are muted, with the RSI (14) around 52 and the ADX near 19, reinforcing a consolidation view, while downside supports are mapped at 0.6833, 0.6660, 0.6593, 0.6414 and 0.6373, and a daily close below the 200-day SMA would undermine the broader setup.<\/p>\n
Domestic data remain mixed. July PMIs showed Manufacturing at 51.7 versus 51.5 and Services at 53.0 versus 50.5, while June\u2019s unemployment rate held at 4.4% and employment rose by 76.3K after a revised 44K. However, May posted a A$3.018 billion trade deficit after April\u2019s A$1.383 billion surplus, and GDP slowed to 0.3% QoQ from 0.9% even as annual growth stayed at 2.5%. Inflation eased to 4.0% YoY from 4.2%, yet the trimmed mean and weighted median rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, with expectations at 4.7% versus 5.5; the RBA held the OCR at 4.35% and markets price about 25 basis points more tightening by year-end. China grew 4.3% YoY in Q2, with industrial production at 5.3% and retail sales at 1.0%, as the trade surplus widened to $125.62 billion from $105.4 billion and the PBoC kept the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year at 3.50%. Positioning data show net shorts at 37.7K versus 30.7K, open interest at 225.2K from 208.5K, exposure at -16.7% from -14.7%, and the four-week change at -24.7K versus -26.6K, implying rejection risk below 0.7000 but squeeze potential if that level gives way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n