S&P Global\u2019s US services PMI registered 51.2 in June, undershooting the 51.4 consensus forecast. The reading remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, pointing to continued, if modest, growth in service-sector activity.<\/p>\n
The softer-than-expected result implies momentum in the services economy was slightly weaker than markets had pencilled in for June. Even so, the index staying in expansion territory suggests demand and output levels held up, rather than slipping into broad-based contraction.<\/p>\n
The recent services PMI data, coming in at 51.2, signals a clear slowdown in the largest part of the US economy. While still in expansion territory, this miss on expectations confirms that momentum is fading. We see this as a reason to shift from an aggressively bullish stance to a more defensive one.<\/p>\n
With economic uncertainty rising, we expect volatility to increase from its recent lows. The VIX, which has been hovering near 14, is likely to see a sustained move higher in the coming weeks. This makes buying options, such as puts on the SPY or calls on the VIX, an attractive strategy right now.<\/p>\n
This is not an isolated data point, as last week’s jobs report also showed hiring cooling to 190,000, below consensus. This, combined with core inflation that remains sticky around 3.5%, paints a picture of slowing growth without immediate price relief. The combination complicates the Federal Reserve’s path forward.<\/p>\n
The market will now likely price out any chance of further Fed rate hikes for the rest of this year. We are watching Fed Funds futures to see a growing probability of a rate cut by the first quarter of 2027. This changes the calculus for trading bond futures and interest-rate sensitive equities.<\/p>\n
We are positioning for weakness in consumer discretionary sectors that are most sensitive to a slowdown in services. This involves buying puts or establishing bearish spreads on ETFs like XLY. Conversely, defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples may provide relative safety.<\/p>\n
This environment feels similar to the 2015-2016 period, where weakening global growth data led to a choppy, range-bound market for an extended time. During that period, strategies that profited from sideways movement or spikes in volatility performed well. We should be prepared for a similar dynamic in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n