Gold (XAU\/USD) slid to about $3,995 in early Asian trade on Thursday, extending losses below the $4,000 mark for the first time since November 2025. The move came as expectations of higher US interest rates and a firmer US Dollar (USD) pressured the non-yielding metal. Attention is now on the US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release due later Thursday, a key gauge for assessing the near-term inflation path.<\/p>\n
Rate expectations have shifted higher after the Federal Reserve (Fed) struck a hawkish tone at its June meeting, while concerns about inflation linked to the Iran war have also fed into pricing. Markets are pricing a 34.2% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in July, compared with 8.5% a week earlier, and 66.4% for September versus 29.1%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. With PCE data pending, any evidence of easing price pressures could soften the Greenback and, in turn, lend support to the USD-denominated commodity.<\/p>\n
With Gold breaking the critical $4,000 support level, our immediate posture should be bearish for the coming weeks. The primary driver is the market’s growing belief in a more aggressive Federal Reserve, making the non-yielding metal less appealing. We see this breakdown as an opportunity to initiate or add to short positions ahead of today\u2019s key inflation data.<\/p>\n
The ongoing conflict in Iran, which has pushed Brent crude oil prices back towards $110 a barrel, continues to fuel inflation worries and solidify the Fed’s hawkish stance. This environment punishes assets like Gold that do not offer a yield. Historically, when the Fed aggressively fights inflation, as it did in 2022, Gold consistently underperforms.<\/p>\n
Ahead of the PCE data release, we are looking at buying put options on gold futures expiring in August. We anticipate a core PCE reading coming in around a stubborn 3.8%, which would give the Fed more reason to hike and could push Gold towards the next support level near $3,925. Strike prices around $3,900 are attractive for capturing this expected downward move.<\/p>\n
This strategy is reinforced by the strength of the US Dollar, which just saw the Dollar Index (DXY) break above 107.50 for the first time this year. A strong dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, adding further pressure on its price. We can use derivatives to take long positions on the dollar as a correlated trade.<\/p>\n
The rapid shift in rate-hike probabilities, with a September hike now seen as a 66.4% likelihood, mirrors the market sentiment from early 2023 before the last series of hikes. The Fed’s message has been clear, and we should not position for a dovish pivot until inflation shows significant signs of cooling. Therefore, selling call option spreads above $4,050 could also be a viable strategy to collect premium while maintaining a bearish outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n