Century Aluminium (CENX) is a primary aluminium producer with operations in the United States and Europe. The share price was little changed this morning after rising from about $46 in late March to $68\u2013$69 in early April, before a bearish reversal near the highs.<\/p>\n
Since early April, the price has trended lower with defined support and resistance levels. If selling continues, a first support area is a gap fill at $53.25, about 10\u201311% below the current price.<\/p>\n
Below that, a 0.786 Fibonacci retracement is at $51.13 and aligns with a pivot level. A further support area is a gap fill at $46.65, just under the Fibonacci level.<\/p>\n
On the upside, two resistance areas are identified if the price rebounds. The first is a gap fill at $65.61, about 8% above the current price.<\/p>\n
Another resistance zone is around $68.29, which matches a double top and prior pivot high near the early April reversal area. A move above the all-time high is described as a breakout level for risk control.<\/p>\n
Following the big run-up in March and April, CENX has been struggling to find its footing. This makes sense given that LME aluminum prices have fallen about 5% from their recent highs to near $2,550 per tonne. We are now watching to see if the stock’s weakness continues in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
For those looking to play a bounce, the gap fill at $53.25 is the first level of interest for an aggressive trade. A trader might consider buying short-term calls or selling puts here, but this is a high-risk play for a quick rebound. We remember the volatility back in 2025 when initial support levels like this often failed during broader market weakness.<\/p>\n
A more patient approach would be to wait for the $46.65 level, which lines up with a gap fill and a key Fibonacci level. This area offers a much stronger technical setup for a potential bottom. With the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI reading at 49.8 showing a slight contraction, having a stronger reason to buy is crucial.<\/p>\n
We believe the better risk-to-reward opportunity lies on the short side, especially if the stock attempts a relief rally. Any move up toward the $65.61 gap fill presents a chance to buy puts or establish a short position. This strategy works well given the company’s own cautious guidance on energy costs and demand from its last earnings call.<\/p>\n
The prime shorting zone remains the double top area around $68.29, where the stock was rejected hard back in April. A failure at this level would confirm the downtrend is still very much intact. Any short positions from these upper levels should have a tight stop placed just above the all-time highs, because a breakout would invalidate the entire bearish view.<\/p>\n
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