Gold fell back on Thursday but stayed in a multi-week range. XAU\/USD traded near $4,790 after a high of $4,838, with a firmer US Dollar weighing on it.<\/p>\n
Talks to end the US-Iran war remained in focus after Donald Trump said negotiations could resume this week following talks in Islamabad that failed to bring a breakthrough. Gulf and European officials told Bloomberg a deal could take up to six months and called for a ceasefire extension and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Iran moved to formalise control over the Strait of Hormuz, with state media saying any transit tolls would be paid via Iranian banks. Pakistan-led diplomacy continued, with an Iranian official citing narrower differences in some areas, but ongoing disputes over nuclear issues.<\/p>\n
Gold traded about 10% below its post-war peak as oil-related inflation risks kept rate expectations elevated. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said supply shocks threaten inflation and employment goals, and said core inflation could stay near 3% through year-end.<\/p>\n
Technically, gold was below the 50-day SMA near $4,897, with support at the 100-day SMA near $4,708. RSI was around 51 and ADX near 24.<\/p>\n
We are looking at a gold market that remains range-bound, a direct consequence of the oil price shock from the US-Iran conflict in 2025. The ongoing, slow-moving peace talks create persistent uncertainty, making strong directional bets risky. For now, gold is consolidating as it awaits a clearer catalyst for its next major move.<\/p>\n
Although Brent crude has fallen from its peak of over $150 a barrel last year, it has settled near a stubborn $95, keeping inflation concerns alive. The most recent March 2026 CPI report confirmed this, with core inflation holding at a sticky 2.8%. This reinforces the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being.<\/p>\n
Given this environment, a long straddle or strangle options strategy on gold futures appears sensible for the coming weeks. This involves buying both a call and a put option, positioning to profit from a significant price breakout in either direction. The strategy benefits from the rising volatility expected if peace talks succeed or suddenly collapse.<\/p>\n
For those betting on continued stagnation, selling volatility through an iron condor could be a viable approach. This strategy defines a clear profit range, capitalizing on the market staying between key support and resistance levels. It profits from time decay as long as gold does not make a sharp move before the options expire.<\/p>\n
The key technical levels from last year remain critical, with support near the $4,700 mark and significant resistance just under $4,900. A decisive break of this channel, likely triggered by news from the upcoming Geneva talks or a surprise inflation report, should be the signal to act. Until then, implied volatility in gold options remains relatively low, making these strategies more affordable.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold retreats but holds range near $4,790; strong dollar, Iran talks, and rate outlook cap gains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t