Gold traded lower on Wednesday despite a weaker US Dollar. It was near $4,807 after touching a one-month high of $4,871 in the Asian session.<\/p>\n
Reports pointed to possible US-Iran talks as early as this week, before a two-week ceasefire ends. Iranian state media said a Pakistani delegation was travelling to Iran to pass on a US message and discuss a second round of talks.<\/p>\n
The Washington Post reported the Pentagon may deploy thousands more troops to the Middle East in coming days. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, and a CENTCOM commander said US forces have halted sea trade into and out of Iran.<\/p>\n
WTI traded near $89 after dipping to around $85, a level last seen more than three weeks ago. Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guards said they would block imports and exports across the Gulf and the Sea of Oman if the blockade continues.<\/p>\n
Oil\u2019s pullback eased inflation worries and lifted rate-cut expectations, which can support gold. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rates are \u201cin a good place\u201d and her baseline is to stay on hold \u201cfor a while\u201d.<\/p>\n
On the 4-hour chart, gold faced resistance at the 200-period SMA near $4,837 and held above the 100-period SMA near $4,637. RSI (14) was near 57, and MACD stayed positive, with $5,000 as an upside level if resistance breaks.<\/p>\n
Last year, we were watching for a breakthrough in US-Iran talks to ease tensions and potentially lower gold prices. Those hopes have faded, as the diplomatic track stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint for conflict. This persistent geopolitical risk provides a floor for gold, unlike the more optimistic outlook we saw in 2025.<\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve’s stance is now a significant headwind, which was not as clear a year ago when officials were content to hold rates. With the Federal Funds Rate at 5.75% and the latest March CPI data showing inflation at a stubborn 3.8%, the case for rate cuts in 2026 has weakened considerably. This high-rate environment makes holding non-yielding gold more expensive.<\/p>\n
This dynamic has led us to see a clear shift in market positioning compared to the cautiously bullish sentiment of 2025. Recent CFTC data shows that managed money net long positions in gold futures have decreased by 15% over the past six weeks. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has also drifted lower to around 16, making options strategies cheaper than during the flare-ups we saw last year.<\/p>\n
Considering gold is now trading near $4,550, well below the $4,800 levels of 2025, traders could look at strategies that benefit from this new reality. Selling call credit spreads with a strike price above the recent resistance of $4,700 could be a way to collect premium from the capped upside. For those anticipating a break lower due to Fed pressure, purchasing long-dated put options offers a defined-risk way to position for a drop toward the $4,400 support level.<\/p>\n
Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold slips despite weaker dollar as Iran talks, troop reports and oil dip reshape outlook; $5,000 eyed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t\t