{"id":43747,"date":"2026-03-26T20:35:24","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T20:35:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/uncategorized\/audusd-hits-two-month-low-as-energy-shock-bites\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T20:35:24","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T20:35:24","slug":"audusd-hits-two-month-low-as-energy-shock-bites","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/analysis\/audusd-hits-two-month-low-as-energy-shock-bites\/","title":{"rendered":"AUDUSD Hits Two-Month Low As Energy Shock Bites"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Aussie2-1024x573.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-45675\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AUDUSD drops to around 0.687<\/strong>, marking a <strong>two-month low<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation risks rise, with CPI seen nearing <strong>4.5% and possibly 5% in Q2<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets price a <strong>68% chance of a May hike<\/strong>, with rates seen at <strong>4.75% by year-end<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar weakened to around <strong>$0.687<\/strong>, falling to its lowest level in two months as markets reassessed global growth risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The move reflects rising concern that a prolonged Middle East conflict could trigger a sustained energy shock, weighing heavily on commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a proxy for global growth and commodity demand, AUDUSD tends to weaken when risk sentiment deteriorates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Aussie may remain under pressure if growth concerns deepen and commodity demand softens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yield Advantage Narrows as Global Tightening Expands<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the key supports for the Australian dollar, its relatively higher interest rates, is beginning to fade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets now expect other major central banks to maintain or even increase tightening, narrowing Australia\u2019s yield advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This shift reduces the incentive for capital flows into the Aussie, particularly as global uncertainty rises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite this, markets still price a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/the-federal-reserve-s-two-day-policy-meeting-starts-today-here-s-what-you-need-to-know-11927642\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"\">68% probability of a rate hike<\/a> in May<\/strong>, with expectations for rates to reach <strong>4.75% by year-end<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rate support may offer limited upside unless the RBA turns more aggressive than global peers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflation Pressures Rise as Energy Costs Surge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A sharp rise in petrol prices is feeding directly into Australia\u2019s inflation outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Economists expect headline CPI to rise toward <strong>4.5%<\/strong>, with the potential to approach <strong>5% in Q2<\/strong> if energy prices remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Australian inflation remained elevated in February, even before the Iran war disrupted Middle East energy supplies and sent the cost of gasoline soaring, highlighting persistent price pressures in the economy. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jBEU4ixjLg\">https:\/\/t.co\/jBEU4ixjLg<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2036607225716756837?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 25, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This creates a difficult environment for policymakers, as higher inflation may require tighter policy, even as growth slows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The combination of rising costs and weaker consumption is beginning to weigh on household spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">RBA Faces Growth Versus Inflation Trade-Off<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Reserve Bank of Australia is navigating a complex policy environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent has warned that a prolonged Gulf conflict could weigh on economic growth, even as the central bank remains focused on anchoring inflation expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Middle East conflict and associated energy supply shock threaten to further fan inflation in Australia at a time when its economy is already grappling with capacity pressures, a senior Reserve Bank official said <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sMUTd5OmHD\">https:\/\/t.co\/sMUTd5OmHD<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2036935369795453328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 25, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This reflects a broader global theme where central banks must balance inflation control with weakening economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The RBA may remain data-dependent, with policy decisions increasingly shaped by energy prices and global developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>AUDUSD<\/strong> is trading around <strong>0.6893<\/strong>, continuing a steady pullback after failing to hold above the <strong>0.71\u20130.7180 resistance zone<\/strong>. The structure has shifted from a strong uptrend into a <strong>corrective phase<\/strong>, with bearish pressure building in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trend Structure and Moving Averages<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Price is now sitting <strong>below all key short-term moving averages<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>MA5: 0.6946<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MA10: 0.7003<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MA20: 0.7033<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>MA30: 0.7049<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This alignment shows a <strong>clear bearish stack<\/strong>, with all MAs sloping downward. The rejection from <strong>0.7187<\/strong> marked a local top, followed by consistent <strong>lower highs and lower lows<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fact that price cannot reclaim even the <strong>MA5<\/strong> suggests sellers remain in control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/05\/image-34-1024x495.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-45670\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Levels to Watch<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Immediate Resistance:<\/strong> 0.6945 \u2192 0.7000<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Stronger Resistance:<\/strong> 0.7030 \u2192 0.7050<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support:<\/strong> 0.6850 \u2192 0.6800<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Breakdown Level:<\/strong> Below 0.6800 opens 0.6700 region<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>0.6850 area<\/strong> is the first key support. A clean break below this level would confirm continuation of the downside move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Price Behaviour Insight<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rally from <strong>0.6421<\/strong> into the <strong>0.7187 high<\/strong> was strong and trend-driven. However, the recent structure shows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Repeated rejection near highs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tight consolidation turning into breakdown<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increasing downside follow-through<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is typical of a <strong>distribution phase transitioning into correction<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Volume has increased during the recent decline, suggesting <strong>more active selling interest<\/strong> compared to the earlier consolidation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What to Watch Next<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Focus on how price reacts around <strong>0.6945 (MA5 zone)<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Failure to reclaim:<\/strong> Keeps downside pressure intact<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Break above 0.7000:<\/strong> Could trigger a short squeeze toward 0.7030\u20130.7050<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also monitor macro drivers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>USDX strength<\/strong> remains a headwind for AUD<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Commodity prices<\/strong>, especially iron ore and oil, can influence AUD direction<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cautious Outlook<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The short-term bias remains <strong>bearish while below 0.7000<\/strong>, with rallies likely to be sold. Momentum only stabilises if price can reclaim the <strong>0.7030\u20130.7050 zone<\/strong>. Until then, the structure favours a <strong>drift lower toward 0.6850 and potentially 0.6800<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Traders Should Watch Next<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUDUSD remains sensitive to both domestic and global drivers. Key factors include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Oil price movements and energy supply conditions<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global growth outlook and risk sentiment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>RBA policy expectations and inflation data<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Central bank divergence across major economies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For now, the Aussie dollar is reacting more to global risks than domestic policy support, with energy-driven inflation and growth concerns shaping its near-term direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Learn more about trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Forex Pairs<\/a> on VT Markets <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/Insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">here<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>FAQs<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why Did AUDUSD Fall to a Two-Month Low?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AUDUSD dropped to around <strong>0.687<\/strong> as energy-driven growth concerns reduced demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How Do Rising Oil Prices Affect the Australian Dollar?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher oil prices increase inflation and reduce global growth, which weakens commodity demand and pressures the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What Is Driving Australia\u2019s Inflation Outlook Higher?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Petrol costs are rising sharply, with CPI expected to reach <strong>4.5%<\/strong> and possibly <strong>5% in Q2<\/strong> if energy prices stay elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Why Is The Aussie Losing Its Yield Advantage?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other central banks are expected to tighten policy, narrowing the interest rate gap that previously supported AUDUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What Are Markets Expecting From The RBA?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets price a <strong>68% chance of a May rate hike<\/strong>, with rates seen reaching <strong>4.75% by year-end<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n<p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUDUSD falls to $0.687 as oil-driven inflation risks rise and rate advantage narrows amid global tightening. | VT Markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":43746,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 4.9.10 - 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