{"id":29862,"date":"2026-02-23T11:02:15","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T11:02:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/?p=29862"},"modified":"2026-02-23T11:02:15","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T11:02:15","slug":"week-ahead-fed-cut-timing-repriced-after-cpi-surprise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/learn\/week-ahead-fed-cut-timing-repriced-after-cpi-surprise\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Fed Cut Timing Repriced After CPI Surprise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/02\/cover-1-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29863\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>XAUUSD, BTCUSD, USDX, and SP500 begin the week reacting to shifting Fed rate cut expectations following a softer US CPI print and a mixed labor report.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline CPI cooled to 2.4% year-on-year, while January payrolls rose by 130,000 amid significant downward revisions to prior months. Markets now lean toward the first Fed rate cut around June.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If disinflation persists, XAUUSD may continue to rise. If inflation proves sticky again, USDX could squeeze upward and pressure both gold and crypto.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US CPI and Fed Rate Cut Expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The macro backdrop this week revolves around a growing disconnect between moderating headline inflation and persistent core pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>January\u2019s US CPI slowed to 2.4% year-on-year, below expectations of 2.5% and down from 2.7% in December. The decline was largely driven by softer energy prices, particularly gasoline, which helped ease the headline figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the underlying inflation picture remains less reassuring. The Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, remains elevated. December PCE stood at 2.9% year-on-year, with core PCE at 3.0%. Services inflation and essential costs remain sticky, reinforcing the Fed\u2019s cautious tone around easing too soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The US Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump&#39;s global tariff policy may, at best, bring a &#39;slow, gradual&#39; decline to US consumer prices, if it occurs at all, said Anna Rathbun, founder and CEO of Grenadilla Advisory <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GUnhREnhqs\">pic.twitter.com\/GUnhREnhqs<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/2024982396043505867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 20, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Labour data mirrors this mixed narrative. January non-farm payrolls rose by 130,000, comfortably above expectations of 70,000 and well ahead of December\u2019s revised 48,000 figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, benchmark revisions showed that employment levels through 2025 had been overstated, aligning with VT Markets&#8217; research, which highlighted a gradual cooling in labour demand beneath the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent Fed minutes and official commentary continue to stress patience. Policymakers describe inflation progress as uneven and reiterate that any rate cuts will remain data-dependent. Some members have even kept the door open to further tightening should inflation stall again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed funds futures and FedWatch pricing now indicate a strong probability of steady rates through March, with the market increasingly positioning for the first rate cut around mid-2026 rather than early in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Tariff Twist<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A major development emerged after the US Supreme Court ruled that only Congress, not the President, holds the authority to impose global tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This decision removes a key executive policy lever and could potentially trigger approximately $160 billion in refunds to importers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">With its rejection Friday of Trump\u2019s claim of unbridled power to impose and remove tariffs, the court reasserted itself as a constitutional guardrail and laid out fresh limits on presidential authority <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dwlIoFoIiQ\">https:\/\/t.co\/dwlIoFoIiQ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2025266378991689831?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 21, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For markets, the ruling introduces two potential effects:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>USDX impact:<\/strong> If importers unwind hedges tied to prior tariff flows, the dollar could face downward pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SP500 effect:<\/strong> Lower effective import costs may support corporate margins and improve forward earnings expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, the White House is reportedly considering a temporary 150-day emergency surcharge as an alternative measure. Markets will closely monitor whether this approach withstands legal scrutiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rising US\u2013Iran Tensions and the Geneva Deadline<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Geopolitical risk has returned to the spotlight after Washington issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran ahead of scheduled talks in Geneva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he\u2019s likely to meet US special envoy Steve Witkoff Thursday in Geneva, seeking a diplomatic resolution for the latest standoff over Tehran\u2019s nuclear program. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3DlCFu6A3c\">https:\/\/t.co\/3DlCFu6A3c<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/2025626799728665068?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 22, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>US military positioning in the region has intensified, though diplomatic channels remain open for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This development directly impacts gold and oil markets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heightened geopolitical risk typically supports safe-haven demand, reinforcing XAUUSD above the 5,000 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If negotiations deteriorate, crude oil could spike, potentially lending temporary strength to USDX amid risk repricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Upcoming Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>26 Feb 2026<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>US-Iran Talks Geneva<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>Expect volatility in gold and oil<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>27 Feb 2026<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>PPI m\/m<\/td><td>0.30%<\/td><td>0.50%<\/td><td>Key input for Fed cut expectations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>03 Mar 2026<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>JOLTS Job Openings<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>Labour demand gauge after revisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>06 Mar 2026<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Non-Farm Employment Change<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>130K<\/td><td>Payroll strength impacts USDX and SP500<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Symbols to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold (XAUUSD) | USDX | Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | S&amp;P500 | Oil (CL-OIL)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Chart Movements of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold (XAUUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/02\/XAUUSD-2-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29864\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>XAUUSD climbed toward $5,170 in early Asian trading Monday, approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 5,164.35.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5,164.35 remains a critical rejection zone, while 4,981.20 serves as key 50% support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Catalyst:<\/strong> Fed rate cut expectations and upcoming US inflation releases.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin (BTCUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/02\/BTCUSD-2-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29865\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BTCUSD faced rejection near $65,000 and stabilized around $62,000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The $59,500 level remains structurally important support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Catalyst:<\/strong> US inflation data and SP500 performance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/02\/USDX-2-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29866\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX is testing resistance near 98.10.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A break above 98.65 would shift short-term momentum decisively bullish.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Catalyst:<\/strong> Fed repricing and US PPI data.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SP500<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/02\/SP500-1024x559.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29867\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The SP500 trades around 6,912, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Immediate resistance sits near 6,944 at the 23.6% retracement, where sellers may re-emerge.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stronger support lies at 6,860, corresponding to the 61.8% retracement zone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold begins the week pressing against the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 5,164.35, trading just beneath a key technical ceiling. The next directional move will likely depend on how rate cut expectations evolve alongside incoming US data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With PPI and follow-up labor figures ahead, markets are actively recalibrating the timing of the first Fed rate cut. Continued cooling in inflation could allow XAUUSD to extend gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, any reacceleration in price pressures may strengthen the dollar and limit upside in gold and crypto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The coming sessions will determine whether rate cut expectations gain momentum or face another reset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Create a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" title=\"\">live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong> today to access our platform features, including market insights and educational content.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways US CPI and Fed Rate Cut Expectations The macro backdrop this week revolves around a growing disconnect between moderating headline inflation and persistent core pressures. January\u2019s US CPI slowed to 2.4% year-on-year, below expectations of 2.5% and down from 2.7% in December. The decline was largely driven by softer energy prices, particularly gasoline, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/learn\/week-ahead-fed-cut-timing-repriced-after-cpi-surprise\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29868,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[51,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-learn","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29862","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29862"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29862\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29868"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}