{"id":29600,"date":"2025-12-02T12:06:04","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T12:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/?p=29600"},"modified":"2025-12-02T12:06:06","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T12:06:06","slug":"week-ahead-key-us-data-to-challenge-the-dovish-fed-shift","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-key-us-data-to-challenge-the-dovish-fed-shift\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Key US Data to Challenge the Dovish Fed Shift"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29601\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover-1536x839.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover-500x273.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover-400x218.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover-350x191.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover-200x109.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/cover.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Key Points<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>December rate-cut expectations have surged to nearly 87%, but the outlook remains data-dependent as ISM PMI, ADP employment, and the PCE price index serve as the final major signals before the FOMC.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This week\u2019s economic releases could either support or reverse the rapid dovish repricing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Additional volatility may come from BoJ Governor Ueda\u2019s speech, Australian GDP, and Canada\u2019s labor market report.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The swift shift in market expectations followed rare dovish remarks from typically centrist Fed members, including New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller. Their comments suggested that rate cuts may be needed \u201cin the near term\u201d as inflation cools and labor conditions soften, prompting institutions like JPMorgan to advance their forecast for an initial rate cut to December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Growing Expectations of a Cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29602\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch-1536x839.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch-500x273.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch-400x218.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch-350x191.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch-200x109.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/Fedwatch.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>FedWatch probabilities have moved sharply over the past two weeks. Futures now reflect an 87% likelihood of a 25 bp cut at the 10 December FOMC meeting, compared with roughly 40\u201350% just days earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The shift has filtered directly into the bond market:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The 10-year Treasury yield has eased toward 4.0%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The 2-year yield is around 3.5%, in line with expectations of multiple cuts in 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Wall Street stocks closed higher extending the November 21 rally as increased odds that the US Federal Reserve will lower its Fed funds target rate in December helped investors look past concerns about inflated tech valuations <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oiQLPm1hEh\">https:\/\/t.co\/oiQLPm1hEh<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3elSIcKbdK\">pic.twitter.com\/3elSIcKbdK<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1993148887113126377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 25, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Lower yields have reignited the appetite for growth assets. US tech stocks recorded their biggest rally in six months, with Nasdaq up 2.7% and the S&amp;P 500 up 1.6%, driven by strong performances from AI-linked names such as Broadcom, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Stocks gain as investors bet on Fed rate cuts; yen locked in intervention zone <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zVdDnp9mvD\">https:\/\/t.co\/zVdDnp9mvD<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zVdDnp9mvD\">https:\/\/t.co\/zVdDnp9mvD<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1993991972541841560?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 27, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Crypto, however, remains near November lows, reflecting lingering caution despite improved liquidity expectations. Volatility remains elevated ahead of the US data releases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Symbols to Watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>USDX | XAUUSD | USDCAD | AUDUSD | BTCUSD<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Upcoming Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>1 Dec<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>ISM Manufacturing PMI<\/td><td>49.0<\/td><td>48.7<\/td><td>Watch for USD volatility<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3 Dec<\/td><td>AUD<\/td><td>GDP q\/q<\/td><td>0.7%<\/td><td>0.6%<\/td><td>Weak GDP may pressure AUD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3 Dec<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>ADP Non-Farm Employment<\/td><td>19K<\/td><td>42K<\/td><td>Major swing factor for USD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3 Dec<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>ISM Services PMI<\/td><td>52.0<\/td><td>52.4<\/td><td>Softer data boosts risk sentiment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4 Dec<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Unemployment Claims<\/td><td>220K<\/td><td>216K<\/td><td>Rising claims reinforce dovish bias<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5 Dec<\/td><td>CAD<\/td><td>Unemployment Rate<\/td><td>7.0%<\/td><td>6.9%<\/td><td>Strong jobs could lift CAD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5 Dec<\/td><td>USD<\/td><td>Core PCE m\/m<\/td><td>0.20%<\/td><td>0.20%<\/td><td>Soft PCE may support gold<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Movements of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USD Index (USDX)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29603\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX-1536x839.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX-500x273.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX-400x218.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX-350x191.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX-200x109.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDX.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>USDX retested the 99.45 zone, showing hesitation as markets digest shifting rate expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A pullback toward 99.00 may attract bullish reactions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong data could drive a push toward 100.50\u2013100.90.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold (XAUUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29604\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD-1536x839.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD-500x273.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD-400x218.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD-350x191.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD-200x109.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/XAUUSD.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold remained above the 4,190 monitored area, supported by lower yields and rising expectations of a December cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Upside targets: 4,245 resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Watch 4,170 for bullish reactions if US data softens.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin (BTCUSD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29605\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD-1536x839.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD-500x273.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD-400x218.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD-350x191.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD-200x109.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/BTCUSD.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>BTC slipped from 92,450 after a week-long consolidation and is testing the 87,070 level as traders await US data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Another consolidation may lead to a fresh swing low if data strengthens the USD and tempers cut expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDCAD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>USDCAD continued lower after clearing the 1.3970 liquidity zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Next support: 1.3900.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Canada\u2019s jobs report on 5 December will be pivotal for direction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDJPY<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29606\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY-1536x839.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY-500x273.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY-400x218.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY-350x191.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY-200x109.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/12\/USDJPY.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>USDJPY extended its decline to 155.50 following BoJ Governor Ueda\u2019s signal that a December rate hike remains possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Key levels to monitor: 155.35 and 154.65, though strong BoJ messaging may keep the pair pressured.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This week\u2019s US data will determine whether the dovish shift can deepen or needs moderation. With influential updates from Japan, Australia, and Canada also in play, cross-asset volatility is likely to remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders should stay agile, monitor key levels closely, and be prepared for abrupt moves as markets position for the final major event of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/in\/trade-now\/\" title=\"\">Create a VT Markets account today &amp; start trading.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The swift shift in market expectations followed rare dovish remarks from typically centrist Fed members, including New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller. Their comments suggested that rate cuts may be needed \u201cin the near term\u201d as inflation cools and labor conditions soften, prompting institutions like JPMorgan to advance their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-key-us-data-to-challenge-the-dovish-fed-shift\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29607,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-week_ahead"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29600\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}