RBI measures have helped curb speculative activity and lend support to the Indian rupee, with the governor signalling openness to further action, which has made markets more cautious about rebuilding short-INR positions. Even so, USD/INR briefly moved below 95 before reversing, as a firmer US dollar and elevated oil prices interrupted the rupee’s recovery momentum. Stronger-than-expected US CPI pushed the dollar and US Treasury yields higher, reinforcing the view that domestic regulatory steps can temper pressure in the near term but cannot fully shield the currency from external headwinds.
Technical Outlook for USD/INR
Technicals point to a slower pace of downside in USD/INR after a near 2% drop across four sessions. Daily momentum has turned bearish and RSI has fallen, although moderating RSI and overnight price action suggest selling pressure may be easing. Key support is flagged at 94.70, then 94.20, while resistance is seen around 95.60 and 96. A more sustained rupee recovery is framed as contingent on some easing in oil prices and a softer dollar.
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