Gold (XAU/USD) traded around $4,328 on Tuesday after rebounding from an intraday low of $4,291, as markets digested fresh Middle East headlines. Iran said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and eases military pressure, with the message relayed via mediators. The US Dollar pared earlier gains and the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to about 100.50 from an intraday peak of 100.67, its highest since 30 July. Oil extended a fifth straight daily decline, with WTI near $90 and down more than 5% this week, even as US-Iran threats over the weekend kept tensions elevated and attention shifted to the UN General Assembly.
Gold’s recovery remained constrained by a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook. The Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points last week to 3.75%–4.00%, and 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. On charts, XAU/USD is above the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at $4,301 and $4,316 but below the 200-day SMA at $4,541; RSI is 47 and MACD is negative. Support sits at $4,316 and $4,301, then $4,150 and $4,000, while resistance is $4,541 and $4,700.
Range-Bound Strategies And Key Support Levels
We advise derivative traders to adopt range-bound strategies for gold in the coming weeks, focusing on the tight corridor between the 50-day moving average of $4,301 and the 100-day moving average of $4,316. Given that gold has historically shown a 70% correlation with real interest rate expectations during Fed tightening cycles, we should expect capped upside as long as the federal funds rate remains on path toward 4.25%. Traders can utilize short strangle or iron condor option strategies to capture premium while the market digests these competing geopolitical and macroeconomic signals.
We must closely watch the $4,300 support level, as a breach could quickly trigger automated sell orders down to the $4,150 mark. This potential downside is historically consistent with periods of high energy prices; when WTI oil traded near similar elevated levels in late 2022, gold experienced temporary liquidity drawdowns before stabilizing. If support holds, we recommend buying protective puts or establishing bear put spreads to hedge against a sudden drop if the Strait of Hormuz successfully reopens and eases global inflation fears.
Bullish Catalysts And Upside Potential
On the bullish side, we see a strong floor established by robust central bank demand, which reached record purchases of over 1,000 metric tonnes annually in recent years and continues to support ETF holdings at six-month highs. Any positive developments from the UN General Assembly meetings could trigger a sharp short-covering rally toward the 200-day moving average of $4,541. For those looking to capture this upside, we suggest utilizing long call options with October expiries to leverage potential breakout momentum while limiting absolute risk.
