EUR/USD held above 1.1600, sitting seven pips above Monday’s open after four sessions in which it failed to break out. Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 162K versus a 53K consensus, lifting September Federal Reserve hike odds to 58% from 49.4%; the pair dropped about 40 pips on the 12:30 GMT release, dipped just under 1.1600, then retraced by the New York afternoon. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 43.9% in Saxony-Anhalt and 39 of 83 seats, while the Christian Democrats fell to 17.2% from 37.1% in 2021; the 10-year Bund yield added one basis point on Monday and the Euro’s session spanned 28 pips.
Eurozone Economic Developments and Political Movements
Eurozone data then revised second-quarter growth to 0.6% against 0.4% consensus and pushed the Sentix survey to 5.1 from 0.9, sending EUR/USD briefly to a high just short of 1.1650 before fading within an hour. The ECB decision is due 12:15 GMT Thursday, with a Reuters poll showing all 65 economists expecting the deposit rate to 2.5% and the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, up from 83% in August. Markets price a third move to 2.75%.
Upcoming US Data and Technical Outlook for EUR/USD
US PPI (12:30 GMT) is seen at 0.4% m/m after flat July and 5.3% y/y after 4.7%, and US CPI (Friday 12:30 GMT) at 0.4% m/m after 0.1%, headline 3.4% with core 2.4%; the Fed meets September 15–16 with a quarter point near 58% priced. Technical markers include 1.1650 resistance, the late-August peak just under 1.1700, 1.1750 and the 1.1800 area above, while support sits at 1.1600, with the 50-day and 200-day EMA just above 1.1550 within eight pips, then 1.1500; daily Stoch RSI fell from above 85 to 46, and the intraday reading to 26.
