UK unemployment has fallen to a 13‑month low while average earnings have edged higher, reinforcing expectations of a Bank of England rate rise to 4% in November. Vacancies are down 5.1% year on year, yet real and nominal pay have been stable, and oil prices have climbed to the highest levels since May, keeping pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee. UK CPI is due tomorrow, adding another near-term input for rate expectations.
Sterling Supported by Economic Backdrop and BoE Rate Expectations
Sterling has been supported by a firmer UK macro backdrop and the BoE outlook, leaving GBP with a slight edge over the dollar and the euro. Positioning data point to a build-up of CFTC short exposure that may be vulnerable to short covering, while year‑end seasonals could reassert themselves after the Autumn Budget next week. Technical levels cited include support at 1.3270 and resistance at 1.3400, while EUR/GBP has support at 0.8393 before 0.8370.
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