Bitcoin Technicals and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin slipped below $82,000 on Friday as bulls and bears wrestled for control, with nearby supply seen around $84,000 and $87,000. Technical gauges were mixed: price held above the SuperTrend at $79,664 and key EMAs, yet the MACD stayed below zero and the RSI sat at 48. Support was flagged at the 50-day EMA near $80,436 and the SuperTrend baseline at $79,663, while deeper levels included the 100-day EMA at $76,821 and the 200-day EMA at $75,801. The 30-day Consensus Index, after bottoming at -18.3 on 2 July and crossing above zero on 27 July, stood at +49.2, with 84% of 164 analysts recorded as bullish; a prior cycle reference cited a low of −1.3 after $15,800 on 21 November, later reaching +34.2 on 20 March 2023 with 80% of 113 bullish.
Gold Price Action and Macro Environment
Gold traded near $4,180 and edged towards $4,200 within a broader bearish structure, after lows below $4,100. Momentum indicators were tentative: MACD turned positive while RSI was 46, and price remained below key moving averages and the SuperTrend. Resistance was mapped at the 50-day EMA of $4,255, then the 200-day EMA at $4,297 and the 100-day EMA at $4,304, with further barriers at $4,360 and about $4,416. Macro pricing reflected easing rate-hike bets even as inflation ran hot: US CPI printed 3.7% in September versus 3.6% forecast and 3.4% in August, while markets assigned an 85% probability of the Fed holding 3.75–4.00% later this month; the Fed’s target remains 2%, and it raised rates in September for the first time in three years.
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