The National Bank of Poland kept policy unchanged and maintained a dovish stance, indicating no need to adjust rates potentially until mid-next year, even as inflation rises. The view is that weaker GDP growth by then should start to ease price pressures, leaving the zloty exposed as rate expectations are pushed out and the interest-rate differential tightens.
Zloty and Rate Expectations
EUR/PLN rebounded to 4.320–4.330, matching the prior day’s range, as dovish repricing narrowed the gap in rates. The pair was projected to test 4.330–4.340, while domestic rates were described as edging only modestly and energy prices continued to dominate market moves.
Yield Curve Dynamics
With delayed rate hikes remaining the baseline, the tone was expected to keep Poland’s yield curve under pressure and potentially steepen it further, despite Poland already having the steepest curve in emerging markets.
