{"id":69740,"date":"2026-10-19T08:01:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T08:01:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/uncategorized\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T08:01:39","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T08:01:39","slug":"crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/analysis\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil Falls as Russian Supply Weighs on Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5be2ebfef4.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USOUSD loses its seven-session streak as traders assessed the potential return of additional Russian fuel supplies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>President Donald Trump&#8217;s decision to waive sanctions and tariffs on Russia has raised expectations of increased global oil availability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure continue to threaten supply.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stronger US import prices have reinforced inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest rate decision.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance sits around 98.500\u201398.550, while support near 98.400 and 98.350 could determine the next short-term move.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Move<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US crude oil prices retreated on Monday, <strong>19 October<\/strong>, ending a seven-session winning streak as traders reassessed global supply conditions following Washington&#8217;s decision to ease restrictions on Russian energy exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil falls from five-month high as supply intact despite fighting<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tzZ3wSPxU1\">https:\/\/t.co\/tzZ3wSPxU1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; The Business Times (@BusinessTimes) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BusinessTimes\/status\/2112064964999479304?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<\/strong> was trading near a price of<strong> 98.498 <\/strong>in the latest session. It experienced sharp intraday swings, including a brief advance towards <strong>98.550<\/strong> followed by a rapid decline towards<strong> 98.370<\/strong>. Prices subsequently recovered towards <strong>98.500<\/strong>, suggesting that buyers have returned at lower levels despite the broader session&#8217;s losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The decline followed President Donald Trump&#8217;s decision to temporarily waive sanctions and tariffs on Russia, potentially allowing more Russian fuel to enter international markets. The policy shift has eased some immediate concerns about supply shortages, particularly as Turkey prepares to absorb additional Russian diesel exports. However, attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure have kept supply risks elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ukraine launched a massive overnight aerial attack, sending hundreds of drones toward targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg, striking a major oil terminal again despite pressure from President Trump to end such attacks. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon\">https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon<\/a><\/p>&mdash; ABC News (@ABC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ABC\/status\/2111800494121247112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 18, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US monetary policy is also another piece of the puzzle. September import prices rose more than expected, partly because of higher energy costs, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation. If the Fed decides to add another rate hike, it would further weigh on oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders are monitoring the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, PCE inflation figures and developments affecting Russian and Middle Eastern energy supplies for signals on future price direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Trading Levels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">USOIL chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:USOIL\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Level<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Price (USD)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Technical significance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resistance 2<\/td><td>98.55<\/td><td>Recent intraday peak and upper resistance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resistance 1<\/td><td>98.5<\/td><td>Immediate resistance and repeated rejection area<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Current price<\/td><td>98.498<\/td><td>Latest quoted price<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 1<\/td><td>98.45<\/td><td>Near-term support and consolidation zone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 2<\/td><td>98.4<\/td><td>Previous reaction low and psychological support<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 3<\/td><td>98.370\u201398.350<\/td><td>Intraday recovery zone and lower support<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USOUSD faces immediate resistance at <strong>98.500<\/strong>, where recent attempts to extend recovery have struggled to gain traction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the downside, <strong>98.450 <\/strong>provides the first area of support. A move below this level could expose <strong>98.400<\/strong>, followed by the<strong> 98.370\u201398.350 zone<\/strong> where buyers previously emerged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The nine-period moving average remains close to the current price, suggesting limited directional conviction. With prices fluctuating around <strong>98.500<\/strong>, traders may look for a sustained breakout or breakdown before assessing the next short-term direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bullish and Bearish Setups<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5be3019fb6.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Scenario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Trigger<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Potential target<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Market implication<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish recovery<\/td><td>Price holds above 98.500<\/td><td>98.55<\/td><td>Buyers regain short-term control<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish breakout<\/td><td>Sustained move above 98.550<\/td><td>Further upside, unconfirmed<\/td><td>Stronger recovery momentum<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish rejection<\/td><td>Price fails to hold 98.500<\/td><td>98.45<\/td><td>Selling pressure returns<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish breakdown<\/td><td>Price falls below 98.400<\/td><td>98.370\u201398.350<\/td><td>Downward momentum strengthens<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A bullish scenario could develop if USOUSD establishes support <strong>above 98.500<\/strong>. This would suggest that buyers are overcoming immediate selling pressure, potentially allowing prices to retest<strong> 98.550<\/strong>. A sustained move beyond that resistance could support further gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conversely, a bearish scenario could emerge if prices fail to maintain the recovery near <strong>98.500<\/strong>. A decline below <strong>98.450<\/strong> would bring<strong> 98.400 <\/strong>into focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Disclaimer<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author\u2019s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USOUSD Prediction: What&#8217;s Next?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Though the US sanctions waiver has introduced a potential source of additional fuel supply, markets are still uncertain over the execution and stability of the waiver. Attacks affecting the Strait of Hormuz and Russian energy infrastructure also limit the downside as any disruption to shipping or export facilities may renew buying interest in crude oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US inflation and interest rate expectations will also influence the outlook. If the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive policy outlook, a firmer US dollar and weaker demand expectations could weigh on crude prices. However, any easing in inflation concerns could support market sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade USOUSD with VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders can access USOUSD through VT Markets and monitor crude oil price movements using the VT Markets App, MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices can respond quickly to changes in global supply expectations, geopolitical developments, inventory data and shipping disruptions. These factors can influence price momentum and create periods of increased market volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With VT Markets\u2019 charting and market-analysis tools, traders can monitor price momentum, identify key support and resistance levels, and assess potential USOUSD setups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Start trading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/energies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">energy CFDs<\/a> with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VT Markets.<\/a> Start <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a live account<\/a> and discover<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/insights\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> daily market insights<\/a> and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Frequently Asked Questions <\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why is USOUSD falling today?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USOUSD declined as the US temporarily waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia, raising expectations of increased Russian fuel exports. The prospect of additional supply has weighed on crude prices despite continuing geopolitical disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What are the key USOUSD support and resistance levels?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Immediate resistance is located near 98.500 and 98.550. Support is around 98.450 and 98.400, followed by the lower 98.370\u201398.350 zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could oil prices rise despite increased Russian exports?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes. Further attacks on energy infrastructure, restrictions affecting the Strait of Hormuz or disruptions to shipping routes could tighten available supplies and support prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How could the Federal Reserve affect USOUSD prices?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher interest rates may strengthen the US dollar and weaken expectations for economic activity and oil demand. A less restrictive monetary policy outlook could provide support, although physical supply conditions remain important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What should traders watch next for USOUSD?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders may monitor developments in Russian fuel exports, Middle Eastern shipping disruptions, US inflation data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> USOUSD retreats as the US eases restrictions on Russian fuel exports, while Middle East tensions, Ukrainian drone strikes and Fed rate expectations shape the oil price outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69739,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - 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