{"id":53843,"date":"2026-09-11T03:59:15","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T03:59:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/uncategorized\/usdx-forecast-dollar-rebounds-ahead-of-us-cpi-as-fed-hike-bets-rise\/"},"modified":"2026-09-11T03:59:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T03:59:15","slug":"usdx-forecast-dollar-rebounds-ahead-of-us-cpi-as-fed-hike-bets-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/analysis\/usdx-forecast-dollar-rebounds-ahead-of-us-cpi-as-fed-hike-bets-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"USDX Forecast: Dollar Rebounds Ahead of US CPI as Fed Hike Bets Rise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/codeNDlkODE2N2Q5M2Q3MmViNDE2MWY1MGRhYzE4OGY0MzBfVDVjZ2d4Mk4xS0NyOU9EajNLNFZwUTU2SFh5MElDQnhfVG9rZW46UkZ0M2JzeDcwb0Y5WlF4ZEVnMWx2U2NNZzdnXzE3ODkwOTcwMjk6MTc4OTEwMDYyOV9WNAampadd_watermarktrueampscene_typeCCM.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>August headline CPI is expected at <strong>0.4%<\/strong> month-on-month and<strong> 3.4%<\/strong> year-on-year, while core CPI is forecast at<strong> 0.2%<\/strong> month-on-month and <strong>2.4%<\/strong> year-on-year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>July headline CPI was <strong>0.1%<\/strong> month-on-month and <strong>3.4%<\/strong> year-on-year, while core CPI was <strong>0.2%<\/strong> month-on-month and <strong>2.5%<\/strong> year-on-year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A strong core CPI could strengthen expectations for a September Fed rate hike and support the US dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A cooler CPI reading could reduce Fed hike expectations, potentially weighing on USDX while supporting gold and US equities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Move<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USDX has experienced an <strong>intraday shift in momentum.<\/strong> The index pushed toward <strong>98.80<\/strong> and briefly reached <strong>98.808<\/strong> before rolling over. The subsequent decline produced a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, taking the index to <strong>98.741<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Price has recovered to <strong>98.766<\/strong>, while the 9-period moving average has flattened and begun turning higher, indicating near-term selling pressure potentially easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dollar index held above <strong>99<\/strong> on Friday after rebounding in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This comes before the highly anticipated <strong>Consumer Price Index (CPI) <\/strong>release on Friday, which will provide further signals on the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following Thursday\u2019s stronger PPI data, market pricing for a 25-basis-point September hike had risen from about <strong>65% to around 70%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Core CPI is likely to be particularly important. A <strong>0.4% core CPI<\/strong> would increase the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, while <strong>0.2%<\/strong> would be broadly in line with expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Treasury yields also spiked after the US Treasury Department&#8217;s first expanded buyback operation yielded purchases short of expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders should closely monitor <strong>USDX, Treasury yields, gold and US equity indices<\/strong> as a hotter CPI could lift yields and the dollar while pressuring gold and equities. Conversely, a cooler report would weigh on the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additional market factors include oil prices as it recently jumped above <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/analysis\/oil-surges-above-100-as-middle-east-supply-risks-intensify\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">$100 a barrel <\/a>as Middles Eastern tensions develop, raising concerns over prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies and inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Trading Levels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/VANTAGE-USDX\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">USDX chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\"> by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"VANTAGE:USDX\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Level<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Type<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Significance<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>98.808<\/td><td>Resistance<\/td><td>Session high; a break above would strengthen the bullish outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>98.789<\/td><td>Resistance<\/td><td>Key near-term resistance and recovery zone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>98.78<\/td><td>Resistance<\/td><td>Upper end of the immediate consolidation area<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>98.75<\/td><td>Support<\/td><td>Short-term support and moving-average area<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>98.741<\/td><td>Support<\/td><td>Session low; a break below would reinforce bearish momentum<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently, <strong>98.808<\/strong> is the session high, and a decisive break above it would strengthen the bullish outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>98.789 and 98.780<\/strong> form the immediate resistance zone that USDX needs to reclaim to sustain its recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the downside, <strong>98.750<\/strong> provides short-term support around the <strong>moving-average area<\/strong>, while <strong>98.741<\/strong> is the key session low. A break below <strong>98.741<\/strong> would signal renewed bearish momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bullish and Bearish Setups<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/codeNzk5ZjYzMzViNzdhZjc5MGU4MWRjNGEyNDg2NGVjZmJfalhJQmdWYjlOa21NbUNnMjdJRHR4N3pZSE5JUzd1Q0tfVG9rZW46VG5iM2Jaa0Jab1ZaWXl4MFh1bmxlZDI3Z3lnXzE3ODkwOTcxNzg6MTc4OTEwMDc3OF9WNAampadd_watermarktrueampscene_typeCCM.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Setup<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Trigger<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Significance<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bullish<\/td><td>Hold above 98.750, reclaim 98.789 and break 98.808<\/td><td>Signals stronger upside momentum; a hotter-than-expected CPI could reinforce the move<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bearish<\/td><td>Rejection below 98.789, followed by a break below 98.750<\/td><td>Signals weakening recovery and renewed selling pressure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Stronger Bearish<\/td><td>Break below 98.741<\/td><td>Confirms a fresh intraday low and strengthens the downside bias, particularly if CPI is softer than expected<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The bullish scenario depends on USDX holding above <strong>98.750 <\/strong>and breaking <strong>98.808<\/strong>, particularly if CPI exceeds expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The bearish setup develops if the rebound fails below <strong>98.789<\/strong> and price falls through <strong>98.750<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A break of <strong>98.741<\/strong> would signal renewed downside momentum, particularly following a soft CPI report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Disclaimer<\/em><br><em>The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author&#8217;s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">USDX Prediction: What&#8217;s Next?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USDX currently has a <strong>neutral-to-mildly bullish short-term bias<\/strong>. The recovery from <strong>98.741<\/strong> is noteworthy, but confirmation requires a break above <strong>98.808.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upcoming CPI will act as the key catalyst. A <strong>0.3%\u20130.4% core CPI<\/strong> reading could strengthen Fed hike expectations and favour USDX, while a softer result could push the dollar lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latest forecast shows that the market is already pricing a probability of a <strong>September hike<\/strong>, making the CPI reaction particularly important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade USDX with VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With VT Markets, traders can access USDX CFDs alongside major forex pairs, gold, oil, indices, shares, ETFs and other global CFD markets from one platform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This allows traders to follow broader dollar movements while comparing developments across USDJPY, EURUSD, XAUUSD and energy markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Use VT Markets\u2019 charting tools to monitor support, resistance, moving averages and breakout behaviour as the next USDX setup develops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Start<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> trading indices<\/a> with VT Markets today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Trade USDX with VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USDX provides a way to express a broader view on dollar strength rather than trading a single currency pair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VT Markets provides access to USDX CFDs, other markets, charting and trading tools for monitoring major economic events. Traders can follow USDX price action in real time and compare it with other major CFD markets through one account.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>FAQ<\/strong><\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What is the CPI forecast?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to rise slowly, with short-term forecasts around 3.36% and long-term trends pointing to small increases through 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What was the previous reading?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For July 2026, CPI for All Urban Consumers rose by 0.1% seasonally adjusted (SA) and by 3.4% over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). Overall, the CPI reflects a slight increase in prices, with food and energy prices contributing to the price hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What happens if CPI is hotter than expected?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher inflation could increase expectations for a Fed hike, potentially supporting USDX and Treasury yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What happens if CPI is cooler?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A softer CPI could reduce near-term hike expectations, potentially weakening USDX while supporting gold and US equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What should traders watch on the chart?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>98.808<\/strong> is the key upside breakout level, while <strong>98.741<\/strong> is the key downside level. A break of either could signal the next direction.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\r\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDX is attempting to recover ahead of Friday\u2019s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Markets are increasingly focused on CPI as the final major signal ahead of the Federal Reserve\u2019s September 15\u201316 meeting, and the next major move will depend on whether inflation comes hotter or cooler than expected.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":53842,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"USDX is attempting to recover ahead of Friday\u2019s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. 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