{"id":47046,"date":"2026-06-22T05:54:49","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T05:54:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en\/uncategorized\/wti-slides-as-us-iran-deal-progress-raises-prospects-of-iranian-crude-returning-within-60-days\/"},"modified":"2026-06-22T05:54:49","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T05:54:49","slug":"wti-slides-as-us-iran-deal-progress-raises-prospects-of-iranian-crude-returning-within-60-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/live-updates\/wti-slides-as-us-iran-deal-progress-raises-prospects-of-iranian-crude-returning-within-60-days\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI slides as US-Iran deal progress raises prospects of Iranian crude returning within 60 days"},"content":{"rendered":"WTI futures on NYMEX fell 1.2% to about $75.50 in Asian trade on Monday, reversing earlier gains after the United States and Iran reported progress in Switzerland towards a deal within 60 days. Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cited waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the lifting of a US naval blockade on Iranian seaports, the release of some frozen assets and the start of a reconstruction and development plan, according to CNBC. Separately, Iran said it had re-closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, while its foreign ministry later said a formal transit mechanism had been arranged to ensure safe passage for commercial vessels through the waterway.\n\nUS Vice President JD Vance also said talks had made \u201cgreat progress\u201d, and mediators Qatar and Pakistan referred to progress as well. A Pak\u2013Qatar joint statement said a High Level Committee had agreed a roadmap towards a final deal within 60 days, enabling the immediate start of further technical talks. On the charts, WTI remains below the 20-day EMA at roughly $84.05, while the RSI (14) sits near 33. Resistance is seen at $84.05 and then $90, with support at the June 18 low of $72.79 and a potential move towards $67.20 if that level breaks.\n\n<h3>Bearish Fundamentals Driven By Geopolitics And Supply<\/h3>\n\nWe see the significant progress in US-Iran talks as the main driver for lower oil prices. The potential for a final deal within 60 days introduces a fundamentally bearish outlook. This geopolitical shift is likely to dictate market direction for the next several weeks.\n\nA finalized agreement could reintroduce up to 1.3 million barrels per day of Iranian crude to the global market within months. This potential surge in supply comes at a time when recent data shows global inventories are already stable. We believe the market is not prepared to easily absorb this much additional volume without a significant price drop.\n\nThis supply-side pressure is compounded by signs of weakening demand. The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the EIA last week revised global demand growth forecasts downward for the third quarter, citing a slowdown in Chinese industrial activity. This combination of rising supply and softening demand creates a powerful bearish catalyst.\n\nWe can look to the period surrounding the 2015 JCPOA deal for a historical parallel. In the months leading up to and following that agreement, WTI crude prices fell by over 30% as the market priced in the return of Iranian oil. We anticipate a similar, though perhaps less severe, pattern to unfold this time.\n\n<h3>Positioning For Further Downside In Oil Prices<\/h3>\n\nGiven this outlook, we are positioning for further downside by purchasing put options. We are targeting strike prices below the recent low of $72.79, with an eye on the pre-war level around $67.20. These options provide a defined-risk way to capitalize on the expected price decline over the next 60 days.\n\nWe are also establishing bearish call credit spreads with strike prices at or above the $84.05 resistance level. This strategy will be profitable if WTI remains below this technical ceiling, as we expect rallies to be short-lived. The low Relative Strength Index further supports the view that any upward movements will likely fail.\n\n\n<p><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/latam.vtmarkets.com\/en\/insights\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI slips to $75.50 as US-Iran talks progress, raising supply fears; technicals signal further downside risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":45483,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47046","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47046"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47046\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45483"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}