{"id":46401,"date":"2026-06-11T23:56:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T23:56:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en\/uncategorized\/usd-twd-rises-for-fifth-session-as-foreign-equity-outflows-offset-export-and-inflation-strength\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T23:56:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T23:56:46","slug":"usd-twd-rises-for-fifth-session-as-foreign-equity-outflows-offset-export-and-inflation-strength","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/live-updates\/usd-twd-rises-for-fifth-session-as-foreign-equity-outflows-offset-export-and-inflation-strength\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/TWD Rises for Fifth Session as Foreign Equity Outflows Offset Export and Inflation Strength"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/TWD has climbed for five straight sessions, up 0.1% to 31.68, as foreign equity outflows gathered pace during a global tech sell-off. On a net basis, foreign investors sold USD8.8bn of equities in the first three days of the week, while the TAIEX is down 4.1% so far this week. Against that backdrop, trade data remained strong: May exports jumped 51.7% year on year versus a Bloomberg consensus of 41.2% and 39.0% in April, extending a fifteenth consecutive month of double-digit growth. Integrated circuit exports rose 58.3%, up from 40.5% in April, and imports increased 54.9% against expectations of 40.3% after 29.2% previously, with capital goods imports up 54.7% versus 33.3% in April. The trade surplus widened to USD17.9bn, above the USD17.5bn consensus and up from USD14.4bn.\n\nInflation has also firmed. Headline inflation averaged 1.5% in the first five months, and the government projects 1.9% for this year, while May CPI printed at 2.2% year on year versus a 2.1% consensus and 1.7% in April, moving above the central bank\u2019s 2% target for the first time since March 2025. Even so, the Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2% at its 18 June meeting. Year-to-date, the Taiwan dollar is down 0.8% versus the USD, compared with an average 2.8% decline for Asian currencies ex-Japan.\n\n<h3>Short-Term Drivers: Equity Outflows and Monetary Policy<\/h3>\n\nWe see the USD\/TWD pair continuing its upward trend, driven by significant outflows from Taiwanese equities. A global correction in technology stocks, with the NASDAQ Composite falling over 7% in the last two weeks, is prompting foreign investors to pull capital out of the region. This short-term sentiment is currently the dominant force in the market.\n\nWe do not expect any support for the TWD from the central bank meeting on June 18th. Despite May&#8217;s inflation hitting 2.2%, the CBC has signaled it will hold its policy rate at 2%, a level maintained for the past year. This dovish stance, prioritizing stability amid global uncertainty, suggests the bank will tolerate higher inflation for now.\n\nGiven this environment, we are looking at short-term derivative positions that favor continued TWD weakness. Buying USD\/TWD call options with expirations in late June or July appears to be a prudent strategy. This allows us to profit from the ongoing upward momentum in the currency pair through the upcoming central bank decision.\n\n<h3>Medium-Term Fundamentals: Export Strength and Market Opportunities<\/h3>\n\nHowever, we must watch the fundamental picture, which tells a very different story of incredible strength. Taiwan&#8217;s exports are surging on AI-related demand, with recent data from the Ministry of Finance showing semiconductor exports now account for over 40% of the total. This underlying economic power, driven by a global AI infrastructure build-out, creates a strong floor for the TWD in the medium term.\n\nWe will be closely monitoring the TAIEX and foreign fund flow data for signs of stabilization. Historically, such tech-driven outflows can reverse quickly once global sentiment shifts, as seen in the sharp rebound following the 2022 downturn. A break below key support levels in the USD\/TWD pair could be a signal to consider put options to position for a TWD recovery.\n\n\n<p><b>Start trading now \u2014 click <a href=\"https:\/\/latam.vtmarkets.com\/en\/insights\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account.<\/b><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/TWD extends five-day rise to 31.68 on tech-led equity outflows, despite strong exports and firmer inflation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":45443,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46401"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46401\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45443"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}