{"id":44208,"date":"2026-04-10T15:37:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T15:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en\/uncategorized\/us-core-cpi-rose-0-2-month-on-month-undershooting-forecasts-of-0-3-according-to-march-data-release\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T15:37:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T15:37:08","slug":"us-core-cpi-rose-0-2-month-on-month-undershooting-forecasts-of-0-3-according-to-march-data-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/live-updates\/us-core-cpi-rose-0-2-month-on-month-undershooting-forecasts-of-0-3-according-to-march-data-release\/","title":{"rendered":"US core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, undershooting forecasts of 0.3%, according to March data release"},"content":{"rendered":"The US Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% month on month in March. The forecast was 0.3%.\n\nThe outturn was 0.1 percentage points below expectations. This refers to the core CPI measure, which removes food and energy prices.\n\n<h3>Core Cpi Undershoot Signals Earlier Fed Cut<\/h3>\nThe softer-than-expected core CPI reading of 0.2% for March is a significant dovish signal for us. This directly challenges the narrative that inflation is sticky and increases the likelihood of an earlier Federal Reserve rate cut. In response, market-implied probabilities for a June rate cut, as seen in Fed Funds futures, have jumped from around 40% to over 65% this morning.\n\nWe should be looking at positioning for lower interest rates ahead. This involves buying derivatives tied to short-term rates, such as September SOFR futures, to lock in a lower future rate. The sharp drop in the 2-year Treasury yield by 15 basis points to 4.50% following the news strongly supports this trade.\n\nLower rate expectations are a strong tailwind for equities, especially for growth and technology sectors. We should consider buying near-term call options on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to capitalize on a potential relief rally. With the VIX dropping below 14, selling put spreads on the S&#038;P 500 offers a way to collect premium with a defined risk profile.\n\nA more dovish Fed typically weakens the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. We are positioning for this by looking at bullish options strategies on the EUR\/USD pair. This dollar weakness also provides support for commodities, making call options on gold futures an attractive hedge against any lingering uncertainty.\n\n<h3>Late 2023 Pivot Playbook Back In Focus<\/h3>\nThis environment feels very similar to the market pivot we saw back in late 2023. At that time, a series of cooling inflation reports led the Fed to signal the end of its hiking cycle, sparking a powerful rally in stocks and bonds. We believe a similar repricing event is now underway.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a>\u00a0now. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Start trading now &#8211; Click <a href=\"https:\/\/latam.vtmarkets.com\/en\/trade-now\/\">here<\/a> to create your real VT Markets account <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US core CPI rose 0.2% in March, below 0.3% forecast, undershooting expectations by 0.1 points.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44208"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44208\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}