{"id":21268,"date":"2025-05-02T03:10:51","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T03:10:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=21268"},"modified":"2025-05-02T03:10:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T03:10:51","slug":"aussie-dollar-inches-higher-despite-weak-retail-data-and-looming-rba-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/analysis\/aussie-dollar-inches-higher-despite-weak-retail-data-and-looming-rba-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie Dollar Inches Higher Despite Weak Retail Data and Looming RBA Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/aussie9-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16967\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Highlights:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AUD\/USD gained <strong>0.4%<\/strong> to trade near <strong>$0.6410<\/strong>, lifted by improved global risk appetite.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australian retail sales grew just <strong>0.3% in March<\/strong>, with Q1 volumes remaining flat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ANZ forecasts a <strong>25bps rate cut<\/strong> from the RBA in May amid sluggish consumption.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Positive sentiment on U.S.\u2013China trade talks helped support the Aussie dollar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian dollar recovered ground on Friday, rising to <strong>$0.6410<\/strong>, even as local economic data painted a weak picture of domestic spending. Hopes of renewed dialogue between the U.S. and China boosted global risk appetite, offering the <strong>Aussie dollar short-term relief<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the lift, the fundamentals remain shaky. <strong>March retail sales rose just 0.3%<\/strong>, while overall retail volumes were flat for Q1\u2014signalling deeper cracks in household demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The outcome of Australia\u2019s tight federal election could be the next catalyst for local assets as a tariff standoff between the US and China continues to rattle markets. Here are the stocks to watch. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yriaOdHyLJ\">https:\/\/t.co\/yriaOdHyLJ<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1917777788217577961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 1, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83c\udfe6 <strong>RBA in Focus: Rate Cut Looms as Spending Stalls<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists now expect the <strong>Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)<\/strong> to cut its official cash rate by <strong>25 basis points<\/strong> at its next meeting on 20 May. ANZ cited cooling inflation, stagnant consumer activity, and external risks as justification for the move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets are already pricing in <strong>75bps of easing by year-end<\/strong>, which would bring the benchmark rate to around <strong>3.00%<\/strong>\u2014down from the current <strong>4.10%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders also anticipate the RBA will revise down its household consumption forecast, especially if inflation continues to trend below expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">\ud83d\udcb9 <strong>Technical Snapshot: Aussie Finds Short-Term Support<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>AUD\/USD bounced off a session low of <strong>0.63692<\/strong>, climbing to test resistance at <strong>0.64130<\/strong>\u2014just below the previous swing high of <strong>0.64272<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\uddbc\ufe0f <em>Chart: AUD\/USD edges closer to breakout territory near 0.6427 \u2013 as seen on the VT Markets app<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) have now formed a <strong>bullish alignment<\/strong>, supporting the upside momentum. Meanwhile, the <strong>MACD indicator<\/strong> is also flashing strength with a bullish crossover and a rising green histogram.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Should buyers push the pair above <strong>0.64272<\/strong>, the next target becomes the <strong>$0.6450 resistance zone<\/strong>. However, if momentum fades and volume stays low, consolidation within the <strong>$0.6340\u2013$0.6450<\/strong> range may continue. Download <em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em> for more Market Insights<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\ud83d\udd2e Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Political Risk<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking forward, attention may briefly shift to domestic politics as <strong>Australia heads to the polls this weekend<\/strong>. While the election is closely contested, analysts don\u2019t expect significant market moves\u2014both major parties maintain centrist views and support central bank independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bigger drivers remain <strong>macroeconomic data and external developments<\/strong>. Any surprise from the RBA, coupled with clarity on U.S.\u2013China trade dynamics, could tip AUD\/USD out of its current range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Until then, expect price action to stay <strong>range-bound<\/strong>, with <strong>$0.6340 acting as key support<\/strong> and <strong>$0.6450 as major resistance<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\ude80 Trade AUD\/USD with VT Markets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Take advantage of short-term swings and macro trends in AUD\/USD with <a href=\"https:\/\/latam.vtmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets Latam\">VT Markets<\/a>. From global news to technical setups\u2014we\u2019ve got your back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2705 Tight forex spreads<br>\u2705 Advanced technical tools<br>\u2705 Real-time news and market sentiment<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Create your live account today and trade smarter with VT Markets.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AUD\/USD climbs as traders weigh soft domestic data against improving trade sentiment. Markets brace for a likely RBA rate cut in May. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":16967,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[55,14],"class_list":["post-21268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-aussie","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21268"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21268\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}