{"id":19937,"date":"2025-04-04T05:18:21","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T05:18:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=19937"},"modified":"2025-04-04T05:18:21","modified_gmt":"2025-04-04T05:18:21","slug":"euro-surges-as-dollar-buckles-under-tariff-turmoil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/analysis\/euro-surges-as-dollar-buckles-under-tariff-turmoil\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro Surges as Dollar Buckles Under Tariff Turmoil"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-21T183310.720-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-18936\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>EUR\/USD up 2.4% for the week, reaching 1.1098.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets price in 99bps of Fed rate cuts for 2025 amid recession fears.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The euro climbed strongly to close at <strong>1.10865<\/strong> on Thursday, gaining <strong>2.4% for the week<\/strong> and marking one of its steepest weekly rallies in over a year. This comes as a sharp repricing unfolds in global currency markets, with the U.S. dollar caught in the crossfire of escalating trade tensions and collapsing trader confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US stock futures sank and the euro paired gains late after President Donald Trump unveiled global reciprocal tariffs during an event at the White House <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OmL09g7Twj\">https:\/\/t.co\/OmL09g7Twj<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1907544961576235172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>President Donald Trump\u2019s announcement of <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/feglPIkcu7\">tariffs ranging from 24% to 54%<\/a><\/strong> on key trading partners has spurred widespread concern over a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oVUus8v08F\">disorderly trade war<\/a><\/strong> with no strategic objective. The euro, seen as a relative safe haven in this environment, has surged, with intraday highs touching <strong>1.10984<\/strong>\u2014levels not seen since January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The EURUSD 15-minute chart shows <strong>bullish momentum firmly in control<\/strong> after a steady climb from the 1.078 region to a high of <strong>1.11464<\/strong>, before pulling back slightly and consolidating around <strong>1.10865<\/strong>. The trend remains upward overall, with price comfortably above the moving averages (MA 5, 10, 30), which are sloping upward and acting as dynamic support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/image-4-1024x439.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19938\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: Euro on the rise\u2014bulls hold ground after a strong breakout, eyeing higher levels, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD also supports the bullish sentiment, showing a strong crossover early in the session, followed by a healthy divergence and histogram expansion. While there&#8217;s been a recent cooldown, the lines are flattening again\u2014hinting at a possible continuation if momentum returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">USD Reversal, Fed Dilemma<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets have aggressively unwound long dollar positions. The greenback is down <strong>2.7% vs. the yen<\/strong> and <strong>3% against the Swiss franc<\/strong>, showing that capital is fleeing the U.S. in anticipation of both policy instability and long-term structural risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed fund futures now imply <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/europe\/global-markets-view-europe-2025-04-04\/\">99 bps of rate cuts by December<\/a><\/strong>, a reflection of the market\u2019s view that rising unemployment will force the Federal Reserve\u2019s hand\u2014even if inflation rises sharply due to import costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That sets up a troubling paradox: the Fed must choose between <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/04\/03\/the-federal-reserve-is-not-likely-to-rescue-markets-and-economy-from-tariff-turmoil-anytime-soon.html\">fighting inflation and averting recession<\/a><\/strong>, all while the dollar loses its long-held status as the world\u2019s safe-haven asset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Cautious Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The path for EUR\/USD remains upward-biased if policy chaos in Washington continues. However, volatility is likely to spike around <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gSYRsxPSyi\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s upcoming remarks<\/a><\/strong>, which could offer clues as to how the central bank plans to respond to this economic dislocation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Powell signals a willingness to \u201clook through\u201d inflation and focus on growth risks, the euro may gather more upside momentum. But a hawkish surprise could trigger a pullback toward <strong>1.1030\u20131.1000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the meantime, traders are watching Apple, supply chain-linked tech firms, and broader global equity flows. The euro remains the current beneficiary of the dollar\u2019s fall from grace\u2014but how long that sentiment lasts will depend on Washington\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EUR\/USD climbs 2.4% this week, hitting 1.1098 on Thursday, as global markets price in aggressive Fed cuts and shift away from the dollar amid U.S. trade policy chaos. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-19937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-forex"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19937\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}