{"id":19469,"date":"2025-03-28T03:42:26","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T03:42:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=19469"},"modified":"2025-03-28T03:42:26","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T03:42:26","slug":"usdx-holds-ground-pending-pce-inflation-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/analysis\/usdx-holds-ground-pending-pce-inflation-data\/","title":{"rendered":"USDX Holds Ground Pending PCE Inflation Data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/image_fx_-2025-03-28T114103.832-1-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19471\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USDX closed at 103.92 after hitting a high of 104.006.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Investors await February PCE inflation data for rate path clues.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>US dollar index (USDX)<\/strong> hovered near <strong>104.3 on Friday<\/strong>, with price action stabilising after a volatile Thursday session that saw the dollar weaken on <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WH8QSKuiGG\">tariff concerns<\/a><\/strong><strong> and economic uncertainty<\/strong>. At the close, the index settled at <strong>103.92<\/strong>, slightly lower from an earlier high of <strong>104.006<\/strong>, as traders braced for the release of the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index\">Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index<\/a><\/strong>\u2014a key inflation gauge used by the <strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A popular trade is gaining even more steam in the Treasury market as tariffs muddy the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest-rate path and concern builds around US growth <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eqI6WsqdLU\">https:\/\/t.co\/eqI6WsqdLU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1904950996859560149?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 26, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Fed\u2019s inflation forecast upgrade<\/strong> earlier this month has shifted the rate cut narrative, especially as tariff risks resurface. On Thursday, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/feds-barkin-extensive-uncertainty-could-hit-demand-policy-good-place-awaiting-2025-03-27\/\">Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin<\/a><\/strong> said the central bank\u2019s current stance is \u201cmoderately restrictive\u201d and justified given ongoing <strong>policy and geopolitical volatility<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Tariff Risks Still in Focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The broader dollar sentiment remains fragile, as markets continue to digest <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WH8QSKuiGG\">President Trump\u2019s upcoming reciprocal and auto tariffs<\/a><\/strong>, scheduled to take effect next week. These levies are expected to trigger <strong>retaliatory measures<\/strong> from key trade partners, which could hurt <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0OSziRHG0N\">consumer spending<\/a><\/strong>, <strong>inflation expectations<\/strong>, and <strong>business investment<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The dollar held steady against the <strong>euro<\/strong> and <strong>yen<\/strong>, but gained modestly versus <strong>commodity-linked currencies<\/strong> like the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/03\/28\/australia-pm-calls-general-election-for-may-3-amid-cost-of-living-crisis-tariff-worries-.html\">Australian dollar<\/a><\/strong> and <strong>New Zealand dollar<\/strong>, both of which remain under pressure from domestic rate cut expectations and softer growth outlooks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The USDX chart on the 15-minute timeframe shows a <strong>consolidation phase<\/strong> after a brief push to <strong>104.29<\/strong>, which was sharply rejected. Price has since been oscillating between <strong>104.00<\/strong> and <strong>103.70<\/strong>, reflecting indecision in the market. The recent candles are tight and choppy, confirming <strong>low volatility<\/strong> and a lack of clear direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/image-35-1-1024x442.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19470\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Picture: USDX coils in tight range; breakout brewing between 103.70 and 104.00, as seen on the <\/em><em><a href=\"https:\/\/vtmarketsapp.onelink.me\/CD7D\/240525WA\">VT Markets app<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD remains <strong>flat near the zero line<\/strong>, with no strong divergence or momentum\u2014signaling a <strong>neutral bias<\/strong>. The moving averages (5, 10, 30) are overlapping, reinforcing the range-bound nature of current price action. A decisive break above <strong>104.00<\/strong> or below <strong>103.70<\/strong> is needed to confirm the next directional move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">PCE Holds the Key<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets now await the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/data\/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-indexv\">February PCE report<\/a><\/strong>, which could cement the path for near-term Fed policy. A hotter reading may <strong>reinforce a hawkish Fed bias<\/strong>, potentially lifting the dollar back toward <strong>104.30<\/strong> and beyond. A softer outcome could lead to renewed speculation around a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/03\/19\/fed-rate-decision-march-2025.html\">June or July rate cut<\/a><\/strong>, with downside risk toward <strong>103.60<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders are likely to stay on the sidelines until the data drops, with short-term price action favouring <strong>tight ranges and breakout watching<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Create your live VT Markets account<\/a><\/strong><strong> and <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">start trading<\/a><\/strong><strong> now.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USDX steadies at 104.3 as markets await US PCE report. Fed\u2019s hawkish stance and tariff risks keep traders on edge. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19471,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[47],"class_list":["post-19469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-dollar"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19469"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19469\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/en-latam\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}