Silver rose on Tuesday as the US Dollar pared earlier gains even after stronger US data. XAG/USD was trading near $59.70, up almost 2.5% on the day. In the labour market, JOLTS job openings increased to 7.594 million in May from April’s revised 7.585 million, above forecasts of 7.3 million. Separately, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index ticked up to 91.2 in June from 90.6.
The Dollar’s pullback left the DXY around 101.10 after an intraday high of 101.43, yet it remained set for a second straight monthly rise. Against that backdrop, silver was down nearly 20% this month, with Fed expectations supportive for the Greenback and a headwind for the non-yielding metal. On a four-hour view, price stayed below the 100-period SMA at $64.32 and the 200-period SMA at $69.68, while resistance includes $60 and a trend-line break near $63; RSI firmed towards 54 as ADX eased towards 38. Daily indicators showed RSI around 35 and ADX near 37, with resistance at $60.00, then the 200-day SMA at $69.73, the 50-day SMA at $72.28 and the 100-day SMA at $75.55; support was cited near $50.00.
Bearish Outlook for Silver Amid Persistent Fed Hawkishness
Given today’s date of June 30, 2026, we see the current bounce in silver as a deceptive rally within a strong bearish trend. The metal has plummeted nearly 20% this month, and the fundamental reasons for this weakness remain firmly in place. A hawkish Federal Reserve and a resilient US Dollar are creating significant headwinds for non-yielding assets like silver.
The economic data supports our view that the Fed will not be easing policy soon. The latest CPI report for May showed core inflation remains stubbornly high at 3.8%, and last week Fed officials reiterated their commitment to keeping rates elevated until inflation is definitively under control. This environment continues to favor the US Dollar over precious metals.
Trading Strategies and Technical Positioning
For the coming weeks, we believe that any rallies toward the $60-$63 resistance zone are opportunities to initiate bearish positions. The technical charts show a dense cluster of resistance in that area, which is unlikely to be broken without a major shift in Fed policy. We are therefore considering selling out-of-the-money call spreads for the July and August expirations to capitalize on this expected price ceiling.
Alternatively, for those seeking a more direct bearish play, buying put options is a viable strategy. With the next major technical support level not appearing until the $50 mark, there is significant room for further downside. We are looking at August puts with strike prices around $55, which would profit from a continuation of the primary downtrend.
Historically, periods of high interest rates have been brutal for silver, similar to the sharp downturn experienced after its 2011 peak. The latest Commitment of Traders report reinforces this sentiment, showing large speculators have increased their net short positions in silver futures for the fourth consecutive week. This institutional positioning suggests we are on the right side of the trade.
The sharp drop this month has also pushed implied volatility higher, making the purchase of options more expensive. This elevated volatility makes selling premium, such as through bear call spreads, a particularly attractive strategy for us right now. It allows us to profit even if silver simply consolidates or moves slightly lower, while defining our risk to the upside.
