PBOC Signaling Official Tolerance for a Weaker Yuan
Given the People’s Bank of China has set the USD/CNY fixing at 6.8108, which is notably weaker than both the prior session and market estimates, we see this as a signal of official tolerance for a softer currency. This policy direction is likely intended to support China’s economy by making its exports more competitive. The deviation from expectations is the most important part of this data for us. This move aligns with recent economic figures, which show May 2026 export growth slowed to 1.5% year-over-year, while industrial production has also missed forecasts. The national PMI, a key measure of factory activity, has hovered just above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction for the last two months. This sluggish data provides a clear incentive for authorities to use the exchange rate as a tool to stimulate growth.Expectations of Further Easing and Market Positioning
With the economy showing signs of softness, we believe the central bank may follow up with more direct easing measures. Historically, a pattern of weaker currency fixings has often preceded cuts to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) or the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) to boost internal demand. Therefore, we are watching for potential policy rate adjustments in the near term. In the coming weeks, we will be positioning for further Yuan depreciation against the US dollar. We find that buying one-month USD/CNH call options presents an attractive strategy to profit from this expected trend. This approach allows us to capitalize on potential upside in the currency pair while clearly defining and limiting our maximum risk.Start trading now — click here to create your real VT Markets account.
