Strategy And Technical Setup
Given the binary risk presented by these two data points, we believe a strategy of buying volatility is warranted. We are looking at purchasing options, such as straddles or strangles, that expire after Friday’s NFP release. This allows us to profit from a significant price swing in either direction without needing to predict the outcome correctly. The technical chart reinforces this view, with the pair caught between support at 1.1599 and resistance near 1.1719. We recall the NFP release in the fourth quarter of 2025, which caused a 120-pip swing in the first hour. A similar reaction this week would push the price well outside its current consolidation range, making a volatility play effective. We are also monitoring the geopolitical situation regarding the US and Iran, but we see it as a background factor for now. A sudden breakthrough or breakdown in talks could inject unexpected volatility. However, the immediate focus for our trading desks in the coming days remains squarely on the central bank-related data releases.Start trading now — click here to create your real VT Markets account.
