EUR/USD Technical And Macro Outlook
We are watching the Euro closely as it tests the major support level around 1.1590. This level is critical, and a break below it would signal a new downward leg for the currency pair in the coming weeks. Our immediate bias is tilted to the downside, with momentum pointing toward further weakness against the US Dollar. The dollar’s strength is being supported by recent economic data showing resilience in the US economy. For instance, the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report for May 2026 showed a gain of 215,000 jobs, exceeding analyst expectations and suggesting the Federal Reserve has little reason to alter its current policy path. This contrasts with more modest growth figures coming out of the Eurozone, which saw Q1 GDP revised down to 0.2%. —Trading Strategies And Key Levels
For traders, we see an opportunity in positioning for a potential break below 1.1590. Buying put options with strike prices at 1.1550 or 1.1500, expiring in late June or early July, could offer a favorable risk-reward profile. This strategy allows for participation in the downside while clearly defining the maximum potential loss. Current one-month implied volatility for EUR/USD is hovering around 6.8%, which is not historically elevated. This makes purchasing options a relatively cost-effective way to express a directional view. A decisive break of the support level could cause volatility to rise, increasing the value of these long-put positions. Alternatively, for those anticipating that the 1.1590 support will hold, selling a bearish credit spread could be considered. For example, one might sell the 1.1550 put and buy the 1.1500 put to collect a premium. This strategy profits if the Euro remains above 1.1550 through the option’s expiration. The key level to watch on the upside is 1.1655, which we view as strong resistance. As long as the Euro remains below this price, the likelihood of a decline toward our 1.1555 target remains intact. A convincing move above 1.1655 would signal that the immediate downward pressure has eased.Start trading now — click here to create your real VT Markets account.
