EUR/GBP eased on Monday to about 0.8560, after touching a two-week low of 0.8554, as Sterling regained some traction. The Euro remains supported by a hawkish European Central Bank, although Christine Lagarde’s Vienna remarks centred on Europe’s reliance on imported artificial intelligence rather than rate guidance. Separately, she has described the energy shock as “longer-lasting”, while euro area inflation stands at 3.3% against the 2% target.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases
Attention turns to Tuesday’s UK labour-market release, expected to soften: average earnings including bonuses are seen at 3.9% versus 4.1%, the ILO Unemployment Rate is forecast at 5% from 4.9%, and the Claimant Count Change is expected to shift back to an increase after the previous fall. Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment survey is due the same day.
Technical Outlook
Technically, the cross trades below the 20-period SMA at 0.8580 and the 100-period SMA at 0.8575, with resistance also flagged at 0.8562 and 0.8565; the RSI is near 30.15. Support is marked at 0.8556 and 0.8555.
