Central and Eastern Europe faces a dense run of releases, with the Czech National Bank (CNB) decision on Thursday framed as the focal point, while Polish industrial production follows on Friday. Expectations centre on the CNB keeping its policy rate at 3.75%, shifting attention to guidance on the timing and pace of future moves. The backdrop includes a prior sell-off in CEE rates after higher global energy prices and a hawkish ECB meeting, even as Friday’s US inflation data eased some pressure.
Czech National Bank’s Rate Decision And Market Expectations
With market pricing still leaning more hawkish than economists’ projections, the near-term direction is seen hinging on whether global energy prices retreat. A dovish CNB message would be expected to temper rate-hike expectations and support a firmer EUR/CZK, with the cross forecast to trade towards 24.300 around the meeting.
Potential Drivers For EUR/CZK Movements
Further gains would depend on the CNB reinforcing that tone alongside renewed US dollar strength.
