Key Points
- September NFP came in at +29K vs +90K expected; August was revised down to +133K from +162K.
- Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%.
- The probability of an October Fed hike fell to around 22.7%, from 64.2% a week earlier.
- The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% on Friday to close at 27,190.86. Nvidia rose about 1.3% and Tesla jumped 4.7%.
- Next catalysts to watch include US inflation data and Fed commentary.
Market Move
NAS100 traded at 30,853.50, up 25.20 points or 0.08% from the previous close of 30,828.30. Price opened at 30,869.21 and has ranged between a session high of 31,013.25 and a low of 30,828.25.
On the tick chart, price is consolidating around 30,850–30,860, with several attempts to move higher. A push towards 30,880 was quickly reversed, while buyers emerged after an earlier dip towards 30,830. NAS100 is now trading close to, and slightly below, its 9-period moving average, pointing to softer short-term momentum.
Why Traders Are Watching
The weak September jobs report, with payrolls at 29K and unemployment up to 4.2%, cut the odds of an October Fed hike to around 22.7% from 64.2% a week earlier. Lower rate expectations tend to support tech and growth stocks, whose valuations are sensitive to borrowing costs. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.19% to close at 27,190.86, led by Tesla and Nvidia, which showed that effect in action.
The biggest question is whether this is a lasting shift or a one-day reaction. A cooling labour market supports the case for a more patient Fed, but US inflation data and Fed commentary could quickly change that view, which is why traders are watching upcoming US data closely.
Key Trading Levels
| Level | Price | Type | What It Means |
| Resistance | 31,000 | Round number, near today’s high of 30,966.7 | A daily close above it would confirm a breakout |
| Pivot | 30,800 | June highs and current price | Holding above keeps buyers in control |
| Support | 30,000 | Psychological level, base of the early-October consolidation | First area to watch on a pullback |
| Major support | 29,000 | Lows of the August-September range | A break would signal a larger shift in structure |
The index has climbed steadily since early August, but volume has been steady rather than spiking. That makes confirmation important near resistance. Traders may wait for a daily close above 31,000 before treating the move as a breakout, and may watch 30,000 for signs of whether buyers defend the trend on any retreat.
Bullish and Bearish Setups
| Setup | Trigger | Confirmation |
| Bullish | Daily close above 31,000 | Strong momentum, soft US inflation data |
| Pullback | Retreat toward 30,800 or 30,000 | Price holds support and the broader trend stays intact |
| Bearish | Daily close below 30,000 | Hot inflation data or hawkish Fed comments |
A daily close above 31,000 would strengthen the bullish outlook, particularly if softer US inflation data keeps rate hike expectations subdued. A retreat towards 30,800 could still be viewed as a pullback within the broader trend if buyers defend the level, while a deeper move towards 30,000 would put stronger support to the test. A daily close below 30,000, especially alongside hot inflation data or hawkish Fed comments, would weaken the current structure and increase the risk of a broader downside move.
Disclaimer
The price levels and market scenarios above reflect the author’s assessment at the time of writing. They do not represent financial advice or an official recommendation from VT Markets. Traders should conduct their own analysis and manage risk carefully.
NAS100 Prediction
The near-term bias is cautiously bullish while the NAS100 holds above 30,000. Soft US inflation data or dovish Fed commentary would reinforce the case against a hike, while continued strength from names like Nvidia and Tesla can lift the wider index. A daily close above 31,000 would confirm a breakout and could draw in momentum buyers.
On the downside, a hot inflation print or hawkish Fed comments could quickly bring rate hike expectations back into focus. Labour market weakness could also become a concern if investors begin to see it as evidence of slowing growth rather than a signal for easier monetary policy, potentially reducing support for tech stocks.
US inflation data remains the key swing factor. Softer numbers could help the index hold above 30,800 and push towards 31,000, while a hot print could send it towards 30,000 and potentially 29,000.
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FAQ
Why did the Nasdaq rise after the NFP report? Weak jobs data reduced expectations of an October Fed hike, which tends to support tech and growth stocks.
What was the September NFP result? +29K versus +90K expected, with unemployment rising to 4.2% from 4.1%.
What are the key NAS100 levels to watch? Resistance near 31,000, with support at 30,000 and then 29,000.
What could move the Nasdaq next? US inflation data and Fed commentary, which will shape whether markets keep pricing out an October hike.
Can I trade the Nasdaq with VT Markets? Yes. Nasdaq CFDs let you speculate on rising or falling prices without owning the underlying assets.
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