EUR/USD edged lower on Monday, leaning on a fresh 2026 low that also marks the base of a week-long consolidation. The move was attributed to a firmer dollar alongside higher crude oil, leaving near-term risks tilted to the downside. Attention is on US consumer price data due on Wednesday, with markets positioning for a potential shift towards a Fed tightening cycle, even as expectations still point to no change at the 28 October policy meeting.
Technical Outlook And Key Levels
Technical signals remain bearish on the daily timeframe, although an oversold RSI is acting as a constraint on follow-through. Any rebounds have been capped beneath the falling 10-day moving average, keeping sellers in control. Targets are seen at 1.1130, the 50% retracement of the 1.0177/1.2082 advance, and 1.1100, which aligns with the 200-week moving average and a round-number level; a break would expose 1.10. Resistance levels are flagged at 1.1215, 1.1242, 1.1276 and 1.1320, while supports are listed at 1.1160, 1.1130, 1.1100 and 1.1065.
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