US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed oil non-commercial net positions rose to 141.1k, up from 135.9k in the prior reading. The increase points to a larger net long stance among speculative accounts in the reporting week.
Speculators Return As Oil Market Finds Support
The recent rise in CFTC non-commercial net positions to 141.1K contracts shows that large speculators are cautiously returning to the buy side of the oil market. This shift from the previous 135.9K reflects a growing belief that crude prices have found a solid floor after recent fluctuations. We should view this as a clear signal that the market’s bearish momentum is beginning to lose its grip.
Historically, these speculative net-long positions are still far below their five-year average of roughly 220,000 contracts, meaning there is significant room for buyers to drive prices higher. Additionally, with U.S. crude production stabilizing near 13.4 million barrels per day and OPEC+ maintaining tight control over output, supply conditions remain supportive. We can use this statistical backdrop to justify taking on more bullish exposure in the coming weeks.
Trading Strategy And Market Outlook
To trade this trend, we suggest focusing on bull call spreads expiring in late October or November to capture the steady upward momentum. Implied volatility in the energy sector remains relatively low, which makes buying options strategies highly attractive right now. However, we must keep tight stop-losses near recent support levels, as any sudden shifts in global economic data could quickly trigger profit-taking.
