EUR/USD slid beyond last week’s 1.1591 trough to 1.1568, then rebounded swiftly to end near 1.1598, a 0.10% daily decline. Price action suggests downside momentum has not strengthened materially, though the pair may probe major support at 1.1565; a clean break is still viewed as unlikely. Overhead, resistance is pegged at 1.1605, with a further cap at 1.1620.
On a 1–3 week view, the pair had been seen trading within a tighter 1.1585–1.1670 band after spot was 1.1625 on 07 Sep, and later sat at 1.1610 on 11 Sep. A close below 1.1585 would increase the probability that 1.1565 gives way, while the next downside level beneath 1.1565 is 1.1535. On the topside, the former “strong resistance” marker has been revised to 1.1635 from 1.1645.
Intraday Strategy and Immediate Levels
We are currently watching the EUR/USD closely as it hovers near 1.1598 after testing a low of 1.1568. Intraday traders should prepare for another test of the major support at 1.1565, though a clean break below this level remains unlikely for now. We recommend placing tight stop-losses around this support zone while targeting immediate resistance levels at 1.1605 and 1.1620.
Fundamental Context and Multi-Week Outlook
This limited downward momentum aligns with recent economic data, including the Eurozone’s sluggish GDP growth of just 0.3% and cooling inflation at 2.2%. Historically, when the Eurozone experiences stagnant growth alongside expectations of central bank rate cuts, the EUR/USD tends to trade in tight, bearish ranges rather than experiencing sudden collapses. Derivative traders can exploit this low-volatility environment by utilizing range-bound options strategies like iron condors.
Over the next one to three weeks, we must monitor the daily closing prices, particularly looking for a close below 1.1585. If the Euro closes below this threshold, it will significantly increase the likelihood of breaching the 1.1565 support and exposing the next target at 1.1535. Conversely, we expect any upward rebounds to cap out near the strong resistance level of 1.1635, making short positions near this ceiling highly attractive.
