EUR/USD stayed range-bound after rising to 1.1472 last Thursday. Following guidance issued when spot was 1.1430 in early Asian trading on Friday, the pair traded between 1.1419 and 1.1462 and closed at 1.1435, up 0.04%. With momentum indicators broadly flat, the near-term expectation remains intraday consolidation, most likely within 1.1415–1.1455.
Over a 1–3 week horizon, the stance remains mildly positive, as set out on 03 Jul with spot at 1.1430, while resistance is seen at 1.1470 and 1.1500. The outlook is maintained provided the pair holds above 1.1370, which remains the defined strong support level. If EUR/USD breaks below the 1.1390–1.1410 area, the next level in focus would be 1.1210.
Short-Term Consolidation and Momentum Drivers
We see EUR/USD moving sideways for now, likely staying within a 1.0830 and 1.0880 range. Momentum indicators are flat, suggesting neither buyers nor sellers have control following last week’s US jobs report, which showed a moderate addition of 195,000 jobs in June. This points to consolidation in the immediate short term.
Medium-Term Outlook and Trading Strategies
Over the next few weeks, we maintain a mildly positive view on the euro. We are watching for a potential push towards firm resistance at 1.0920 and then 1.1000. This view is supported by recent Eurozone inflation data holding at 2.1%, which may limit how dovish the European Central Bank can be in its upcoming statements.
Given this outlook, selling short-dated options strangles with strikes outside our expected range could be a viable strategy to collect premium. For those leaning into our mild upside bias, a bull call spread, such as buying the 1.0850 call and selling the 1.0950 call, offers a defined-risk way to position for a modest rally. Our positive stance remains valid as long as the pair holds above strong support at 1.0780.
A decisive break below the 1.0780 support level would invalidate our positive view and could trigger a sharper move down towards the 1.0650 area. We saw a similar rapid breakdown in late 2024 when a sudden shift in energy market sentiment caused key support levels to fail. Therefore, traders should remain disciplined with their risk management.
