Technical Structure and Market Drivers
We are watching the USD/CHF hold a critical inverse head-and-shoulders pattern above its 200-day moving average. The market is currently consolidating ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, and this indecision is clearly reflected in the flat RSI indicator. We anticipate a significant move once a direction is established.Trading Strategy and Fundamental Influences
For a bullish outlook, we are considering call options or long futures positions if the price moves firmly above the 0.7950 level. Recent US data supports this view, with core inflation holding at a sticky 2.8% and the last jobs report showing a robust 210,000 new payrolls, giving the Fed little reason to signal rate cuts. This strengthens the dollar and makes a push toward the 0.8013 resistance more probable. Furthermore, the policy divergence with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) adds to the bullish case. With Swiss inflation recently reported at a mild 1.4%, the SNB remains one of the few central banks with a dovish bias, which historically weakens the franc against the dollar. We see this as a key driver that could help the pair reach its measured target of 0.8042 in the coming weeks. However, we must manage risk if the pair fails to hold its current support. A break below the 200-day SMA at 0.7905 would signal a failed pattern, and we would look to initiate short positions or purchase put options. Such a move could be triggered by a surprisingly dovish statement from the Fed, targeting a test of the 0.7868 level.Start trading now — click here to create your real VT Markets account.
